[2012.06.02] Shale of the century 页岩的世纪
[size=2][color=#ff0000][b][url=http://www.ecocn.org/thread-68285-1-1.html]http://www.ecocn.org/thread-68285-1-1.html[/url][/b][/color][/size][size=2][color=#ff0000][b]Natural gas
天然气
[/b][/color][/size][b][size=4]Shale of the century
页岩的世纪[/b][/size]
[b]The “golden age of gas” could be cleaner than greens think
“燃气的黄金时期”可能比环保者相像的更清洁[/b]
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[i][color=silver]Jun 2nd 2012 | from the print edition[/color][/i]
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AMERICA’S “unconventional” gas boom continues to amaze. Between 2005 and 2010 the country’s shale-gas industry, which produces natural gas from shale rock by bombarding it with water and chemicals—a technique known as hydraulic fracturing, or “fracking”—grew by 45% a year. As a proportion of America’s overall gas production shale gas has increased from 4% in 2005 to 24% today. America produces more gas than it knows what to do with. Its storage facilities are rapidly filling, and its gas price (prices for gas, unlike oil, are set regionally) has collapsed. Last month it dipped below $2 per million British thermal units (mBtu): less than a sixth of the pre-boom price and too low for producers to break even.
美国“非常态”的燃气持续繁荣让人吃惊。从2005年到2010年，美国页岩燃气产业每年都保持了45%的增长势头。页岩燃气开采利用高压冲击技术，用水和化学[color=blue]制剂[/color]冲开页岩层面，开采天然气。[color=blue]页岩气占美国燃气总产量的值从2005年的4%上升至现在的24%。[/color]美国页岩燃气开采量已超过其国内使用量，相应的储备设施正在迅速趋于饱和。燃气价格大幅下降（与燃油价格不同，燃气价格以地区为划分标准）。上个月，美国燃气价格低于2美元/百万英热单位，这价格还不到燃气产业迅速繁荣前的六分之一，也搞得燃气开发商[color=blue]没什么赚头[/color]。
Those are problems most European and Asian countries, which respectively pay roughly four and six times more for their gas, would relish. America’s gas boom confers a huge economic advantage. It has created hundreds of thousands of jobs, directly and indirectly. And it has rejuvenated several industries, including petrochemicals, where ethane produced from natural gas is a feedstock.
燃气面临紧缺的大部分欧洲及亚洲国家，分别要花费比这一价格大约高三倍和五倍的价钱购买燃气，价格低廉的美国燃气使这些国家看到了希望。燃气产业的繁荣给美国经济创造了巨大的经济优势，直接间接地带来了成千上万的工作岗位，并使一些产业重获生机。这其中就包括石化产业，其原料之一就是从天然气中提取出的乙烷。
The gas price is likely to rise in the next few years, because of increasing demand. Peter Voser, the boss of Royal Dutch Shell, an oil firm with big shale-gas investments, expects it to double by 2015. Yet it will remain below European and Asian prices, so the industry should still grow. America is estimated to have enough gas to sustain its current production rate for over a century.
未来数年，随着需求增加，[color=blue]页岩燃气价格[/color]可能会上涨。著名石油公司，荷兰皇家壳牌公司在页岩燃气开发上投入了巨资。其全球首席执行官彼得.沃森预计在2015年美国燃气价格有望翻一番，但肯定仍要比欧洲和亚洲国家的燃气价格要低。这使得燃气产业还将持续发展。据估计，以现在的燃气开发产[color=blue]率[/color]计算，美国的燃气开发储备足够维持一个多世纪。
This is astonishing. Barely five years ago America was expected to be a big gas importer. Between 2000 and 2010 it built infrastructure to regasify over 100 billion cubic metres (bcm) of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Yet in 2011 American LNG imports were less than 20 bcm. Efforts are now under way to convert idle regasification terminals into liquefaction facilities, in order to export LNG. Plans for a terminal in Sabine Pass, Louisiana, are expected to be approved in June.
这一估计确实让人惊讶。仅五年前，美国还被认为将是燃气进口大国。2000年到2010年这十年间，美国为进口的液化天然气修建了[color=blue]再气化设施[/color]，其储能总量超过1000亿立方米。而时间来到2011年，美国[color=blue]液化天然气[/color]的进口量已不到200亿立方米。而各方在努力，将闲置的气态终转站改造成燃气液化处理厂，以便于出口液态天然气。位于路易斯安那州萨宾帕斯的一所燃气终转站改造计划预计将在六月得到批准。
The shock waves of America’s gas boom are being felt elsewhere. Development of Russia’s vast Shtokman gasfield, in the Barents Sea—a $40 billion project which was intended to supply America with LNG—has stalled. Qatari LNG, once earmarked for America, is going to energy-starved Japan. Yet a bigger change is expected, with large-scale shale-gas production possible in China, Australia, Argentina and several European countries, including Poland and Ukraine.
世界各地也感受到美国燃气产业繁荣所带来的冲击。俄罗斯北欧巴伦支海广阔的什托克曼气田开发已经暂停。这一总值高达400亿美元的项目[color=blue]曾计划用于向美国供应液化天然气[/color]。卡塔尔液化天然气一度曾[color=blue]指定[/color]向美国出口，现在则转向能源需求巨大的日本。[color=blue][/color]
Last year the International Energy Agency released a boosterish report entitled “Are we entering a golden age of gas?” On May 29th it released a follow-up, from which it dropped the question-mark. It foresees a tripling in the supply of unconventional gas between 2010 and 2035, leading to a slower price rise than would otherwise be expected. It expects this to boost global demand by more than 50%.
去年，国际能源机构公布了一篇形势喜人的报告，标题为“我们迈入了燃气黄金时期了吗”？上个月29日又发表了后续报告，文中把之前报告标题中的问号撤去。国际能源机构预测从2010年到2035年，非常规燃气的供应量将增加两倍，这一方面会使燃气价格上涨幅度放缓，低于各方预期。而另一方面则有望使全球燃气需求量大增，涨幅超过50%。
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Free to frack in America
页岩燃气开采在美国优势多多
Not everyone is so bullish. America’s shale-gas boom was fuelled by a coincidence of factors: “open access” pipeline regulation, which inspired wildcat exploration; abundant drill-rigs and other infrastructure; and strong property rights, whereby landowners own the rights to minerals beneath their holdings. Few of these conditions exist elsewhere.
不是所有的人都对燃气的发展如此看好。而事实上，美国页岩燃气繁荣的背后是一系列的巧合因素。其一：“开放获取”管理政策鼓励了[color=blue]盲目钻探的热潮[/color]；其二：美国拥有数量巨大的钻井平台和其它相关设施；其三：产权归属范围大。[color=blue]在美国，地下矿产归土地所有者拥有[/color]。在世界其它地区基本不具备以上列举的这些便利条件。
Europe has a good pipeline network, which in theory is open to all. Yet the pipes get tied up years in advance. European landowners typically do not own the minerals under their land, so they have little incentive to encourage exploration. Also, Europe is crowded, so its NIMBYs are noisy.
欧洲管线网络完备，理论上讲应全部开放。但一些管线多年前就预先被划定了。在欧洲，[color=blue]地下矿产通常不归土地所有者拥有[/color]，这使得他们开发的积极性大幅降低。同时，欧洲人口稠密，反对建制有害设施的呼声高涨。
China has a different sort of problem: a shortage of water, of which millions of gallons can be required to frack a single well. The Argentine government’s recent decision to grab control of the country’s largest oil firm, YPF, will scare off the foreign investment its shale industry needs.
中国所面临的问题有所不同，中国缺水。仅一个页岩燃气井就要在开采过程中耗费上百万加仑的水。阿根廷政府最近则做出决定，接管该国最大的石油公司雷普索尔公司。这一举动无疑会使该国页岩燃气产业所需的外国投资者对其望而却步。
Such hurdles will make the pace, and perhaps scale, of America’s boom hard to equal. And even a big increase in supply might not bring down the European gas price much. Unlike the price in America, it is tied to the oil price, thanks to long-term Russian and Norwegian export contracts.
以上列举的种种障碍表明，相比于美国，其它国家在页岩燃气开发上很难在如此短时间发展到如此大的规模。而且即使燃气供应量大增也未必能使欧洲燃气价格大幅下滑。与美国不同，欧洲燃气价格与石油价格[color=blue]挂钩[/color]，这和欧洲与俄罗斯和挪威签订的长期燃气出口合同有关。
Shale-gas producers also face opposition from greens, who object to the industry’s heavy water usage and a small risk that fracking could lead to contamination of aquifers and even to earthquakes. There is also a risk that large amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, could escape during shale-gas exploration and production. The IEA estimates that shale-gas production emits 3.5% more than conventional gas, and 12% when it involves venting excess gas. France and Bulgaria have banned fracking; American and Australian anti-frackers are also rallying.
页岩开采商同样遭到了环保者的反对，他们认为页岩燃气开采消耗水量过大，并认为高压冲击开采带有一定危险性，有可能会导致地下水含水层污染，甚至引发地震。另外环保者们还担心，在页岩燃气勘探与开采过程中会逸散出大量强危害性温室气体，甲烷。而国际能源组织预测，页岩燃气开采比传统燃气开采要多析出3.5%的甲烷，而若将排放过量燃气产生的甲烷加在内，这一比例将达到12%。法国和比利时已经禁止高压冲击开采，而美国和澳大利亚反对的呼声也越来越高。
The greens have a case, but they exaggerate it. So long as well-shafts are properly sealed, there is hardly any risk that fracking will poison groundwater. By eliminating venting, methane emissions can be kept to an acceptable minimum. And the risk of earthquakes, which has long been present in conventional oil-and-gas extraction, is modest and mitigated by monitoring. The IEA says such precautions would add 7% to the cost of a shale-gas well—a small price for a healthy industry.
环保者有他们的道理，但也有夸大的成份。只要钻井机组封闭措施得当，在开采过程中几乎不会对地下水造成污染。除去通风，甲烷排放可以控制在可接受的最低额度内。至于地震危险，在石油和燃气这些常规能源开采中早已被提及。[color=blue]其危险性不大，而且通过有效监控也能有效降低风险[/color]。国际能源组织表示加装此类预防措施会使每个页岩井的投资多增加7%，对这个发展势头良好的产业来说，花费不大。
But they would not address the big problem with shale gas and all fossil fuels: the global warming they cause. Without a serious effort to boost renewable energy and other low-carbon technologies, the IEA envisages warming of over 3.5°C. That could be unaffordable.
对于由页岩燃气和所有矿石燃料开采所引发的重大问题——全球气候变暖，他们则素手无策。如不大力促进可替代能源和其它低碳技术的发展，国际能源组织预计大气温度上升将超过3.5度，这个代价谁也负担不起。
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