埃及发生政变
如题。回去上报道。 支持宪政总统穆尔西，反对军方。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610251&ptid=116149]2#[/url] [i]吹笛在湖北[/i] [/b]埃及、土耳其等国的军方可是宪政故乡之一的米国直接扶植滴。 [i=s] 本帖最后由 老程 于 2013-7-4 09:37 编辑 [/i]埃及动荡局面貌似成为常态，这个严重依赖旅游业的古国没啥希望了，原来埃及长期稳定的政局和作为两次中东战争的主角，使她在巴以和阿拉伯世界与以色列之间有重要的战略地位。现在一切都在散去，没有石油资源，没有现代化工业的埃及前景不妙。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610255&ptid=116149]4#[/url] [i]老程[/i] [/b]米国知道计算投入产出，每年十多亿美元的军火费和面粉费还是会继续的。 [i=s] 本帖最后由 施国英 于 2013-7-4 12:19 编辑 [/i]
注意该文的日期，有人早就预料到了如今的结局
[color=blue]2013年02月25日[/color]
[b]改变或失败，埃及穆兄会的两条路[/b]
托马斯·弗里德曼
据《埃及每日新闻报》(Daily News of Egypt)报道，埃及国家行政法院上周裁定，广受欢迎的Al-Tet“肚皮舞频道”(Al-Tet “belly dancing channel”)，因在没有执照的情况下播放节目，将被停止播出。谁知道埃及还有个肚皮舞频道？（康卡斯特[Comcast]知道吗？）这个频道显然十分受欢迎，不过，看来也冒犯了埃及正在崛起的伊斯兰派势力。虽然还不清楚穆斯林兄弟会(Muslim Brotherhood)的党派与肚皮舞禁令有多大关系，但近来埃及没有人很开心却很明显。
埃及伊斯兰派与不那么信教且自由化的党派之间的分歧越来越大。埃及镑对美元在过去两个月中贬值了8%。更令人不安的是，最近警察野蛮对待及强奸反对派抗议者的案子显著增加。所有这一切都加强了人们的第一印象——穆罕默德·穆尔西(Mohamed Morsi)总统和穆兄会正在搞砸他们首次执政的机会。
在接下来的几个月中，穆尔西将访问美国。如果他希望说服国会继续获得来自美国的援助，他只有一次机会来创造第二印象。然而，我对穆兄会在埃及的统治情况了解得越多，就越怀疑穆兄会是否有任何第二印象可以提供。
自2011年解放广场(Tahrir Square)革命伊始，每次穆兄会在面临以包容方式进行统治或争夺更多权力的选择时，它都按照自己的布尔什维克倾向，选择争夺更多权力，牺牲包容性。这表现在各个方面：无论是选择什么时间进行选举（在反对派组织好之前），还是花多长时间起草新宪法以及何时对其进行投票（在反对派的不满能够得到回应以前），或者是允许多少反对派人士进入政府（越少越好）。反对派也非毫无过失——它在统一行动方面花费了太长的时间——但是穆尔西的权利争夺将会一直给他制造麻烦。
埃及的经济惨淡。青年失业率很高，一切都处在萧条之中：旅游业、外国投资，外汇储备也在急剧下跌。结果是，埃及需要国际货币基金组织(IMF)出来救援。然而，任何救援都会带来经济上的痛苦，包括为了缩减埃及正在不断扩大的预算赤字而减少食物和燃料补贴的措施。会很痛苦。
为了让埃及人同意接受这些痛苦，大多数人需要对政府及其成功充满希望。但目前的情况并非如此。穆尔西迫切需要一个由各个埃及党派组成的全国统一政府，然而，穆兄会至今未能与反对派联盟“救国阵线”(National Salvation Front)达成任何谅解。
埃及还迫切需要外国投资来创造就业机会。目前有好几十亿美元的埃及资本在国外坐等，因为埃及的投资者，尤其是基督徒，担心他们的资金会被没收，或自己会因莫须有的罪名被逮捕，就像胡斯尼·穆巴拉克总统(Hosni Mubarak)下台后发生过的那样。
穆尔西能为自己和埃及做的最好的事之一，就是宣布赦免穆巴拉克时代所有的人，除非他们手上沾有鲜血，或者能被迅速地证明曾盗用过政府资金。埃及需要它能调动的每一个人才和每一笔资金为埃及效劳。没有时间去干复仇的事情。
但是，穆兄会需要的不仅是新的管理策略。它还需明白，其版本的伊斯兰政治——反对授予妇女权力，反对宗教和政治多元化——如果是在伊朗或沙特阿拉伯，还有可能继续存在，因为那两个国家有丰富的油气储备，能用金钱来解决意识形态与经济增长之间的所有矛盾。但是，在埃及，唯一的自然资源基本上就是你的人民——男人和女人——你必须尽可能地向世界和现代事物敞开怀抱，这样才能让所有的人发挥潜力，促进经济增长。
这就是底线：穆兄会或者改变，或者失败，它越早能意识到这一点越好。我明白为什么奥巴马团队比较愿意私下表达这条信息：这样，埃及的政治势力就不会开始把注意力从彼此身上转移到我们身上。这很明智。但我认为我们还没有用足够的具说服力来传达这条信息。埃及的民主倡导者肯定也这么认为。上周，埃及人权活动人士巴希丁·哈桑(Bahieddin Hassan)在《金字塔周刊》(Al-Ahram Weekly)上写给奥巴马总统的公开信中说，“贵政府温和的立场为埃及目前的独裁政府提供了政治掩护，允许它为所欲为地实施反民主政策且多次采取镇压行动。”
对我们来说，与穆兄会再做我们曾与穆巴拉克的那种交易，不是一种健康的关系。那就是，只要你对以色列表示友好，对圣战主义者不手软，你就可以对自己的人民为所欲为。这种交易也是不可能的。埃及人在穆巴拉克统治时期忍受了那种交易。但是，他们现在行动起来了，他们不再害怕。我们和穆尔西都要明白，这种老式交易再也无法继续下去了。
翻译：陈柳
© The New York Times Company 楼上挺靠谱~~ 2013年07月04日
[b]埃及人自由与民主难兼得[/b]
萨米尔·S·谢哈塔
华盛顿——数百万埃及人发出了声音：一年前当选的总统穆罕默德·穆尔西(Mohamed Morsi)已然失败。人们纷纷要求他下台，并提出重新进行选举，面对这样的局势，军方给他下了最后通牒：要么到周三晚间满足民众的要求，要么面临军事干预。两年前，在军方的帮助下，示威者推翻了独裁的胡斯尼·穆巴拉克(Hosni Mubarak)，而两年后的今天却为何会出现这样的局面？
埃及面临一个困局：它的政坛由非自由主义的民主主义者和非民主主义的自由主义者把持。
穆尔西的伊斯兰运动阵营穆斯林兄弟会(Muslim Brotherhood)是接受选举竞争的，事实上它精于此道。2012年，选民们支持它，使它在权力上取得的优势远超民调数字的预测。但那是可预见的：兄弟会虽被宣布为非法组织，却从20世纪80年代让它的成员作为独立候选人参加议会和职业工会的选举，从而打造了一部高效的政治机器，尽管穆巴拉克总是会使用诡计避免他们掌握实权。
公平选举已经改进了兄弟会的竞选技巧。但它还没有全力推行多元主义，或少数民族的平权。它参与民主运动，但却不愿意分享权力。
从另一方面，许多反对阵营里的人却笃信少数族权的权利、个人自由、公民自由和选举联盟的建立——只要选举能让伊斯兰派下台。换句话说，他们是非民主主义的自由主义者；他们强烈呼吁罢免穆尔西，希望军方干预。但是事实证明他们组织投票者的能力十分可怜。虽然我支持他们的民主目标，但我必须承认，他们对民主原则的追求是肤浅的。
所以，埃及如今面临一个让人不安的悖论：一个表面上的民主运动正在呼吁（制造出执政长达60年的独裁者的）军方罢黜一个民主选出的总统——皆是以让该国再次走向民主为名。
自穆巴拉克被推翻以来，我总共六次前往埃及研究该国的民主进程，最近的一次是在今年3月。我能证明，大多数埃及人在一年前还热切希望看到军方将领走下政治舞台。确实，穆尔西最受欢迎的举措还是在去年8月解除当时国防部长和军方总参谋长的职务。令人注目的是，穆尔西任命的国防部长阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·西萨将军(Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi)如今似乎掌握着穆尔西的命运。
穆巴拉克在埃及安全部队、裙带资本家、美国以及其他势力集团的支持下通过选举舞弊来维持其政权。穆尔西则完全不同：他是埃及民主选举出来的总统。
然而，他也是一个糟糕的领导人：挑拨离间、能力不足、心狠手辣、忽视埃及社会中不认可他的伊斯兰愿景的群体。他和他的穆兄会支持者更关注巩固政权，而不是兑现他们的承诺——代表所有的埃及人；改善经济；让街道更安全整洁并减少交通堵塞；平等地对待所有埃及人。这些承诺无一兑现。
这些便是反对他的理由。然而，使用非民主手段推翻一个经选举产生的领导人，无论他有多么不称职，都破坏了民主的核心，偏离了其第一要义：通过选举和平地实现权力的顺利交接。
即便是穆尔西的一些批评者也公正地指出，通过民众抗议和军事干涉的方式来推翻一个总统的做法会制造一个可怕的先例。这等于在鼓励民众，任何时候只要看总统不顺眼，就要走上街头去抗议，要求军队将领介入干涉。而相反，民主的宗旨却是，在领导人不称职时选民改变自己的看法，定期地实现领导人的变更，不要通过一阵阵暴怒，而且更换领导人要基于一个最佳的理由：其他人可以更好地实现人们的愿望。
然而，要实现这种机制，人们要有耐心并相信，领导人可以通过选票被否决。去年11月，穆尔西绕过法院强行修改宪法的行为，已经严重损害了他自己的声誉。
如果埃及想要实现政治稳定和民主，就一定需要接纳伊斯兰派。像兄弟会这样的运动构成了埃及社会的主要选民群体；民主需要将他们包括在内。如果街头抗议的几百万人希望兄弟会交出权力，那么他们就必须学会进行有效的组织和活动，用选举的方式来排除兄弟会。
这才是在埃及建立自由民主的上佳之道。而通过由世俗阶层和自由派反对者支持的军事政变将穆尔西赶下台则可能是最糟的出路。
萨米尔·S·谢哈塔(Samer S. Shehata)是俄克拉荷马大学(University of Oklahoma)国际问题研究副教授。
翻译：曹莉、陶梦萦、张亮亮
© The New York Times Company 4 July 2013 Last updated at 04:27 GMT Share this pageEmail Print Share this page
ShareFacebookTwitter.Army ousts Egypt's President Morsi
Egypt's army has removed President Mohammed Morsi from power, suspended the constitution and pledged new elections following mass protests.
The army chief announced the move in a TV address. The head of the constitutional court is expected to be sworn in as interim leader on Thursday.
Mr Morsi's supporters denounced the move as a military coup and said he was being held in detention.
His opponents celebrated through the night in Cairo's Tahrir Square.
But officials from Mr Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood said its main rally in Cairo had come under attack by armed assailants and there were reports of deadly clashes elsewhere.
US President Barack Obama said he was "deeply concerned" by the latest turn of events and called for a swift return to civilian rule.
'Military coup'
The military moved quickly after the TV address by army chief Gen Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, who said Mr Morsi, Egypt's first freely elected president, had "failed to meet the demands of the Egyptian people".
Continue reading the main story
Analysis
Jeremy Bowen
BBC Middle East editor, Tahrir Square
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The military's move against the Muslim Brotherhood was well planned. Intervention must have been in the mind of the army chief, Gen Sisi, for some time. Muslim Brotherhood activists were arrested. Islamist TV stations were taken off the air.
In the elections that followed the Arab uprisings of 2011, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and its offshoots across the region, did extremely well. That was because it was well organised, with a reputation for honesty, and took advantage of the failure of secular parties to organise themselves.
But now the Egyptian army has inflicted a serious blow on the Muslim Brotherhood. One question is whether the Brotherhood will be forced back underground, as it was when it was banned in the years before 2011.
The Brotherhood foreswore violence many years ago. But there are jihadist groups in Egypt that have not. The army has calculated it can handle any trouble. But it is playing for high stakes - the future of Egypt.
Military vehicles were seen fanning out across the capital.
Muslim Brotherhood media spokesman Gehad el-Haddad told the BBC that Mr Morsi had been put under house arrest and the "entire presidential team" was in detention.
Mr Haddad's father, senior Morsi aide Essam el-Haddad, and Saad al-Katatni, head of the Brotherhood's political wing, were among those held.
State-run al-Ahram newspaper reported that arrest warrants had been issued for 300 leaders and members of the Muslim Brotherhood.
TV stations belonging to the Brotherhood went off air at the end of Gen Sisi's speech and state news agency Mena said managers at the movement's Misr25 channel had been arrested.
Mr Haddad said a crowd of some 2,000 Morsi supporters had been shot at by men in civilian dress with machine guns at the main Brotherhood rally.
A notice on Mr Morsi's Facebook page denounced the army for its "military coup".
The statement asked Egyptian citizens - both civilians and military - to "abide by the constitution and the law and not to respond to this coup".
But a number of clashes were reported in several Egyptian cities. At least 10 people were said to have been killed in the coastal cities of Alexandria and Marsa Matrouh, as well as in the southern city of Minya.
In Tahrir Square, thousands of anti-Morsi protesters celebrated with fireworks and honking car horns.
One protester, Omar Sherif, told Agence France-Presse: "It's a new historical moment. We got rid of Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood."
The BBC's Kevin Connolly in Cairo says no-one knows what will happen next. The danger, he says, is that both sides will try to settle differences by bringing supporters on to the streets.
The army has said it will not allow that to happen but, our correspondent says, it will not be easy to stop.
'Roadmap'
The army's move to depose the president followed four days of mass street demonstrations against Mr Morsi and an ultimatum issued by the military which expired on Wednesday afternoon.
Advertisement
Muslim Brotherhood spokesman Gehad el-Haddad says the pro-Morsi camp in Cairo has been attacked
Gen Sisi said in his speech that the armed forces could not stay silent and blind to the call of the Egyptian masses.
He spoke of a new roadmap for the future, and said that the chief justice of the Supreme Constitutional Court, Adli Mansour, would be given the task of "running the country's affairs during the transitional period until the election of a new president".
He is scheduled to be sworn in as head of state at 10:00 (08:00 GMT).
After Gen Sisi's address, both Pope Tawadros II - the head of the Coptic Church - and leading opposition figure Mohammed ElBaradei made short televised speeches about the new roadmap for Egypt's future which they had agreed with the army.
Mr ElBaradei said the roadmap aimed for national reconciliation and represented a fresh start to the January 2011 revolution.
"This roadmap has been drafted by honourable people who seek the interests, first and foremost, of the country," added Pope Tawadros.
Opposition leader and former Arab League chief Amr Moussa told AFP news agency that consultations for a government and reconciliation "will start from now".
Reacting to the army announcement, President Obama said he hoped to see a quick restoration of a democratically elected government in Egypt.
He ordered a review of US foreign aid to Egypt which by US law must be suspended in the event an elected leader is deposed by a military coup.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon also voiced his concern, appealing for calm and restraint in Egypt.
Sinking economy
Mr Morsi became Egypt's first Islamist president on 30 June 2012, after winning an election considered free and fair following the 2011 revolution that toppled Hosni Mubarak.
Continue reading the main story “
Start Quote
The fact is the Obama administration won't be tremendously disappointed by what has happened”
End Quote
Mark Mardell
North America editor
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Read more from Mark
However his term in office was marred by constant political unrest and a sinking economy.
The mass protests at the weekend that led to the army's intervention were called by the Tamarod (Rebel) movement, in response to worsening social and economic conditions.
But there has been a growing sense of discontent since last November, when Mr Morsi issued a controversial constitutional declaration granting himself extensive powers.
His moves to entrench Islamic laws and concentrate power in the hands of the Muslim Brotherhood also alienated liberals and secularists
[url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23173794[/url] [i=s] 本帖最后由 heisfool 于 2013-7-5 01:53 编辑 [/i]
埃及为何再度“革命”？
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]宋郑鲁[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]2013年6月30日，应该是新生的民主国家埃及最值得庆贺的一天。这个国家历史上第一位由全体国民自由选举产生、而且在西方国家监督之下得到全球承认的民选总统就职一周年。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]然而，令世人想不到的是，这一天没有庆祝的焰火、没有开怀的香槟，相反，一场规模更为浩大的革命再度上演：全国一千四百多万民众——相当于全国人口的六分之一，走向街头，矛头直指历史上首位经过民主程序、得到全民多数支持的民选总统穆尔西，要求其立即下台。同时包括外交部长在内的多达六位内阁成员纷纷辞职而去，甚至总统府和政府的发言人也挂冠而去。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]恰在此时，一向在埃及扮演重要角色的军方，竟然向这位合法性不容质疑的穆尔西发出四十八小时最后通牒：如果找不到解决冲突的方案，军方将启动自己的政治路线图。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]然而，面对来自反对派民众和军方的逼宫，穆尔西态度极为强硬，不仅要求军方收回最后通牒，还坚定地表示自己权力的合法性，并声言要献出自己的生命维护之。毫不妥协、甚至是语带威胁地一口回绝要其下台的抗议诉求。穆尔西的支持者也同样激情四射，“保皇”立场坚定，双方的冲突频频发生，目前已经导致十多人丧生。阿拉伯之春已经两年之后的埃及，政治对抗导致的危机已处于爆炸性的临界点，全面冲突一触即发。用西方媒体的话就是：埃及正处于最危急的时刻。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]考虑到阿拉伯民众从不妥协的民族个性——反对派已经拒绝穆尔西提出的对话请求，这场革命的唯一走向只能是鱼死网破般的彻底摊牌。果不其然，最后通牒刚过，军方立即动手将穆尔西推翻，并剥夺了他本人及其主要支持者的行动自由：不得离开埃及，同时占领电视台、包围其支持者据点、宣布暂时中止宪法。面对这样的结局，不由令人想起事件之初，美国总统奥巴马呼吁埃及各方保持克制，联合国呼吁埃及人以对话方式走出危机的声明，直给人以啼笑皆非之感，仿如是不知人间冷暖的晋惠帝。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]认同民主是普世价值的群体面对埃及这惨烈的一幕，恐怕真的是无语了。他们想不明白的是，为何民众公然违反宪法，违反民主原则，居然要一个刚刚任职一年、自由普选产生的合法总统下台。难道这些民众不明白，推翻一个合法性的领导人行为本身就是不合法的吗？不通过选票进行权力更替，这和他们过去反对的独裁有何区别？更何况，今天他们这样做了，明天他们的反对派也会如法炮制，整个国家便成了街头暴力或者军方决定一切的政治制度安排。[color=Red]既然如此，何必还需要选举？下一次选举之时是否还会有人投票？当世人在电视屏幕上看到埃及民众为军事政变而欢呼、狂喜的时候，或许会想难道他们不知道自己是在欢呼埃及民主的死亡吗？[/color][/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]认同民主是普世价值的群体还不明白的是，何以已经国家化的军方再次干政，竟敢以最后通牒的方式威胁民选总统，也同样是一幅完全不把宪法放在眼里之状。而军方如此这般的冒天下之大不韪，竟然还得到了抗议者的激情喝彩，庆祝军方和人民站在一起。问题显然是：在一个没有宪政意识的国家，空有一部宪法又有何用？在这样的土壤里，民主怎么能够可能运转？这恐怕就是为什么，美国出现政治争议，可以诉诸最高法院，而在埃及，只有诉诸街头和军方。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]认同民主是普世价值的群体可能会感到脸红的是，领导这场要求推翻民选领导人运动或者“二次革命”的人竟然是一个资深的自由派、前国际原子能机构总干事、诺贝尔和平奖得主巴拉迪。参与这场违宪运动的主体也是埃及国内的自由派。巴拉迪甚至主动呼吁军方采取行动——也就是政变推翻合法政府。从而上演了自由派亲手绞杀民主的一幕。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]试想，自由派都如此视游戏规则如儿戏，怎么可能还指望伊斯兰主义者去遵守呢？面对军方，难道自由派真的不明白，他们是在引狼入室吗？今天军方可以推翻穆斯林兄弟会，明天不就会推翻他们吗？[color=Red]看来，把民主挂在嘴上、实际上却毫无民主素养、民主意识的伪自由派并不仅仅是中国独有。[/color][/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]埃及的革命很自然地令人想到十八世纪的法国。专制引发革命，而革命的后果却是加强了专制。正如宪政学者张千帆在[url=http://www.lkong.net/book.php?mod=view&bookname=%E9%9D%A9%E5%91%BD%E6%98%AF%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%8F%91%E7%94%9F%E7%9A%84%EF%BC%9F]《革命是如何发生的？》[/url]一文中所说的：“一次革命其实不可怕，可怕的是很难走出革命的阴影。”这恰是今天埃及的写照。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]在这里，对自由派还有一问。你们不是一直宣称民主是解决不同政见的最好方式吗？是化解社会分歧、进行利益分配的最佳模式吗？那么，埃及的现实是不是对他们宣传的否定呢？[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]当然，出人意料的还有号称民主捍卫者、输出者的西方。政变发生后，没有一个西方大国反对和谴责，而过去甚至选举出现争议都会引得西方纷纷引颈介入，何以现在就完全是另一幅面孔？更为夸张的是，美国不但不反对和谴责，反而在最后关头要求穆尔西辞职。政变发生后，CNN主持人电话采访美国驻埃及大使，询问是否发生了一场军事政变。这位大使竟然如此回答：“绝对没有”。原来美国一人身兼推翻民主和输出民主的重任——前提自然是要符合美国的国家利益，或者说华尔街以及军火商、石油巨头等的利益。这也是为什么，[color=Red]每日电讯报的一个留言这样评论：致埃及以最好的祝愿，祝愿他们有一个宽容、言论自由的民主和自决权。然而，不要相信西方能够给你这些。因为我们的领导者并不能给我们自由，还对我们监听。我认为我们的政府为了他们的目的正在努力把原教旨主义强加给你们。不要相信他们。[/color][/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]民主在埃及诞生之后却结出和西方完全不同的果实，本是极其正常的现象，埃及不是第一个，也不会是最后一个。但在民主已经占据垄断性一元化话语权的今天，当埃及民主悲剧再一次鲜活上演时，还是令世人极为震撼。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]引发此次民众大规模抗议的直接原因还是经济问题：革命成功以来，埃及人面对的是经常停电和汽油短缺，供水不足，物价上扬，失业率飙升至13%。此外社会治安持续恶化，甚至不及革命前——没有安全何来自由？看来，不管什么制度，其共性都是只要民生搞不好，就必然面临危机，甚至合法性危机。从这一点来看，任何制度的合法性都是建立在绩效之上的。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]但埃及的经济问题的责任显然不能都归罪于执政仅一年的穆尔西。我们不妨放眼伊斯兰世界，除了石油国家享有很高的生活水平之外，除了一个地处欧洲、进行了较为彻底的世俗化变革的土耳其之外，没有一个伊斯兰国家进入到富裕国家行列。这应该是和伊斯兰文明与现代化的冲突有关。比如政教分离、男女平等、商业化及市场规则的尊重（比如产业利润分摊，银行要收利息）、宗教团体放弃对土地等资源的占有。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]具体到埃及自身，则还有其特殊性。一是埃及有95%土地为沙漠，尼罗河两岸4%的土地上，聚居着全国99%人口——假如美国99%的人口也聚集在4%的区域，什么制度也救不了美国。而埃及人口在25年内成长近三分之二，从1985年的五千万人，增加到今日约八千三百万人，平均年龄二十四岁。人口成长给住房和粮食生产带来巨大压力，而埃及每年小麦总消费量约一千两百万吨，其中半数仰赖进口，为全球最大小麦进口国，沙漠地形导致生活和粮食几乎全仰赖日渐退缩的尼罗河。2008年经济危机后，倍受重创的西方内需减少，旅游人数剧减。造成埃及外派工作减少、旅游收入下滑，从而产生大批愤怒的失业青年，这就是为什么埃及发生以青年为主体的革命。革命发生后的埃及，政局持续动荡，不仅外来游客继续大幅减少，甚至在埃及的外国投资也纷纷抽逃。这无疑是雪上加霜。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]二是埃及于上世纪九十年代，在西方主导下进行经济改革，走向全面的市场化、自由化和私有化。包括提高税收、减少工资、货币贬值，削减政府开支如福利支出、电、油、食品 补贴，以积累资金加大投资。这场外来力量主导的改革虽然一度也促进了经济增长、外债减少和外汇储备增加，但却造成了严重的失业和贫富分化。特别埃及粮食无法自给，近几年全球粮食价格上涨，政府又减少粮食补贴，可谓火上浇油。而这个错误政策的后果并没有因为穆巴拉克的下台而消失，反而由于政局动荡而更加恶化。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]引发此次民众大规模抗议的深层次原因则是世俗派与伊斯兰派的冲突，即埃及将来是以伊斯兰宗教政治来治国理政，还是用体现埃及多样性的世俗民主原则来改造国家，是国家走向何方的全面博弈。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]埃及获得独立后，在军人执政的基础上走向了世俗化变革之路。然而，这种世俗化基本上发生在精英阶层，精英的世俗化与大众一成不变的伊斯兰化便成为埃及这个国家和社会的结构性矛盾。2011年，阿拉伯之春席卷埃及，并在短短的十八天之内、以极小的代价赢得胜利。然而，在一人一票、票票等值的制度设计下，伊斯兰色彩的穆斯林兄弟会自然成为“阿拉伯之春”的最大赢家——尽管革命发生时它并不积极，贡献也远远比不上斗争在一线的、高扬民主自由大旗的自由派。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]出身于穆斯林兄弟会的穆尔西2012年6月30日上台后，在宣誓就职时承诺建立一个世俗、民主、法治的现代化国家。但一年以来，正如反对派民众所指控的，他执政并非为全体埃及人民，而是要建立一个在意识形态和政治上均由伊斯兰控制的政权。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]应该说，现代化是各个文明的追求和奋斗目标。但和东亚儒家文明圈取得成功的日本、韩国、台湾和新加坡以及被认为正在取得成功的儒家文明发源地中国相比，伊斯兰文明则鲜有成功者。其根本原因一是作为后起的国家，已经无法复制西方渐进式民主演变模式。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]西方从民主的萌芽到发展成熟，无不经历数百年的漫长演变。这期间经历了民族国家的形成、国家基本制度建设、宗教改革、工业革命、公民社会的形成、市场经济和法治意识的建立、成熟的政党政治、投票权的逐步扩大等等。然而，后起的国家则往往是一步到位，失败自然是必然的结果。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]特别是需要强调的是对于民主制度而言，“一个共同价值观为基础的公民社会”极为重要，只有这样，意见不同的人才会愿意合作。埃及之所以对抗取代妥协，也和世俗派、伊斯兰派没有共同的价值观密不可分。中国这方面也有惨痛的教训。1912年中国一夜之间就建立共和制，成为亚洲第一个共和国。结局则是复辟、乱政、内战、军阀混战。国弱则加速了日本对中国的觊觎，最终爆发了惨烈的八年抗战，国本几乎耗费殆尽。而亚洲四小龙以及日本都以各种方式长期维持一党执政，实现经济起飞后才逐渐实行民主化。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]另一个根本的原因则是上文提到的世俗化与伊斯兰化的张力。从目前看，相对成功的只有伊朗和土耳其。埃及、突尼斯、也门、利比亚则以失败告终：从军人、强人强行推动世俗化到伊斯兰化借助民主化重新复兴，几十年走了一个来回。而中东石油国家则还没有破题，依然是传统伊斯兰文化主导一切的社会。假如石油资源耗尽，“能源诅咒”现象出现，其结局恐怕还不如今天的埃及等失败国家。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]土耳其采用的是军人扮演世俗化保护力量的角色，一旦民选政府过度倾向伊斯兰化，则不惜发动军事政变干预，然后再还政于世俗化色彩的文官。但随着伊斯兰色彩浓厚而又政治能力非凡的埃尔多安的出现，这一模式显然已经走到尽头。他不仅利用执政成功带来的高威望摆平和清洗了军方，同时利用其民选的合法性，强硬镇压抗议和反对的民众。取得这一决定性胜利的埃尔多安，将在修改宪法-之后，谋取总统权力，继续统治土耳其，从而成功实现其伊斯兰化的转向。届时，民族英雄凯末尔开创的土耳其模式将寿终就寝。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]伊朗则一方面接纳西方的多党普选制度——也因此被称为中东最民主的国家之一，另一方面又在之上建立由伊斯兰教法学家担任的国家最高领袖及宪法监督委员会。最高领袖不是国家元首或政府首脑，但根据伊朗伊斯兰共和国宪法，是伊朗在宗教上及中央政治的最高领导人及伊朗军队的最高统帅，并终生任职。伊朗最高领袖则由一个由八十六名伊斯兰教神职人员组成的专家会议按照宪法选举、监督甚至罢免最高领袖。宪法监督委员会有权否决不合符伊斯兰教的律例、筛选政府官员及罢免不合伊斯兰教义的官员。这种将神权统治和民主选举相结合的“伊斯兰共和国”迄今仍是独一无二的政治体制。可以说是介于完全的世俗政府与完全的神权（正统伊斯兰教）政府之间的中间道路。也被视为纯正伊斯兰政教合一的哈里发国家与民族主义和共和主义世俗政权融合的产物。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]从目前看，伊朗模式比较好的解决了世俗化与伊斯兰化的结构性矛盾。尽管伊朗一直遭到西方的敌视、打压和渗透，但其稳定性总体上是超过土耳其的。就在土耳其面临前所未有的民众抗议之时，伊朗则顺利地完成了大选。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]从现实的角度出发，伊斯兰教已是伊斯兰文明不可分割的部分。西方通过宗教改革走向世俗化的道路并不适合今天的伊斯兰文明。伊朗虽然被称为政教合一的神权国家，但其创始人霍梅内依能够从自己的国情和文化出发，创立一套前所未有而又融合世俗化与伊斯兰化的制度模式，显然值得所有非西方文明的国家所借鉴。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px][color=Red]他山之石可以攻玉。埃及活生生的教训，伊朗、土耳其的不同表现，都在提醒中国，只有在历史给定的条件下，顺应国情，走自己的路才是唯一正确的选择。[/color]当然这个道理既是“知难”，也是“行难”。二十世纪以来，中国先是学习美国，后又学习苏联，在付出巨大代价之后都没有成功。只有三十五年前走出改革开放之路，才使中国这个古老的文明重焕生机。现在虽然各界都在热议政改，然而儒家文化和它所代表的价值观根本不可能放弃，对道德、责任、秩序、社会人情、集体的重视永远会远远高于自由、人权、法治、个人主义等西方价值观。这一切都决定了中国和伊斯兰文明一样，根本不可能采纳西方的政治制度。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]中国政治制度的创新，曾有人拿来与伊斯兰世界中独一无二的伊朗相比。现代的立法和行政架构之上还有一个常委制。这种比拟是否妥当暂且不论，在这里只想说的是，这种制度的生命力和卓越的表现。正如本文开头所说的，一切制度的合法性都取决于其绩效，也就是经济发展。那么这里不妨引用即将离位的世界贸易组织的总干事帕斯卡·拉米在六月底接受法国[url=http://www.lkong.net/book.php?mod=view&bookname=%E5%BF%AB%E6%8A%A5]《快报》[/url]（l’expresse）杂志专访时所所评论的：自从太宗在1979年决定经济开放以来，中国的政治体制就呈现出很多优点，中国是四十年来在经济领域犯错误最少的国家。拉米解释说，中国的经济体制建立在孔子的君主理念基础上，主要的目的是为人民谋福利，中国的贫困人口在过去的四十年大幅减少。[/size][/font]
[font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px]当我们目睹埃及陷在一场又一场革命中时，是不是应该庆幸中国的正确选择。[/size][/font]
[align=center][font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px][color=#808080][img]http://www.guancha.cn/pic/2013/7/4/635085272065373395111.jpg[/img][/color][/size][/font][/align]
[align=center][font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px][color=#808080]穆尔西反对派在开罗解放广场集会抗议（图为观察者网编辑所加）[/color][/size][/font][/align]
[align=center][font=tahoma, helvetica, simsun, sans-serif, hei][size=14px][font=宋体][size=12px]请支持独立网站，转发请注明本文链接：[color=#12d84][url=http://www.guancha.cn/song-lu-zheng/2013_07_04_155717.shtml]http://www.guancha.cn/song-lu-zheng/2013_07_04_155717.shtml[/url][/color][/size][/font][/size][/font][/align] 米国是策动军事政变的资深玩家 [i=s] 本帖最后由 zoufeng_1234 于 2013-7-5 07:12 编辑 [/i]
＂他是傻瓜＂老师转帖红色部分重点提示不错。
埃及人正在给中国的民主控上课。 [i=s] 本帖最后由 ironland 于 2013-7-5 11:40 编辑 [/i]
中国当下的模式又能维稳维到什么时候？苏联80年，中国能有多少年呢？沾沾自喜看别人倒霉时，可别忘了专制国家倒台的必然性。死死抱住一党之利不放，只是埋头饲养从没学过妥协的臣民，浑身纹满LV的猪就是模范奴隶，还笑看周遭变化世界为不智愚蠢。未来我们能有的，还不同样又是坨废墟？埃及人差劲，我们又好得到哪里去？别以为别人错，自己就是对的。民主控不灵，活僵尸也一样不灵。
宋郑鲁这种一会儿飞个S，一会儿飞个B的鸟，他的结论就是滩鸟屎。这货就算高铁出事故的时候，也能给铁道部找出可舔之屁。 宋郑鲁是乌有的座上宾，新左，鼓吹民族主义，反西方，反普世价值，为中国模式叫好的角色。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610320&ptid=116149]14#[/url] [i]施国英[/i] [/b]宋鲁郑分明是个NC的保守派。一个整天引用亨廷顿的是哪门子＂左＂。 宋鲁郑之流和柿油派之间就是巴西南非旧政权和他们的柿油主义＂反对派＂之间的区别。 不用看世界，看看周围的民主控就知道“民主”是个啥东东，邹峰说“民主不是个好东西”是有缘由的。
埃及革命这种游戏中国玩不起，别看人家玩成这样，军事政变逮捕民选总统，1400万人参与的革命，代价只是几十个(多数是总统支持者）人被射杀，百余名妇女遭性侵。这要是在中国，后面加三个零都打不住。 [quote] 14# 施国英 宋鲁郑分明是个NC的保守派。一个整天引用亨廷顿的是哪门子＂左＂。
[size=2][color=#999999]三苗 发表于 2013-7-5 09:47[/color] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610321&ptid=116149][img]http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url][/size][/quote]
甘阳也爱引用亨廷顿，难道就不是新左了？ 这次埃及变故和美国还真没啥关系，埃及反对派对美国先前支持穆尔西还很愤怒，美国驻埃大使的头像都被划叉。可面对现实，美国也在调整政策。
[b]白宫警告埃及官员，不要任意逮捕被推翻的总统穆尔西及其支持者[/b] 美国之音
奥巴马总统星期四会晤了他的国家安全班子成员，他们中有人一直同埃及等其他中东国家最高官员保持电话联系。白宫表示，美国官员向埃及官员强调，埃及所有团体和各方都有责任避免暴力，并且呼吁尽快恢复民选文官政府。
诺贝尔奖获得者、埃及外交官巴拉迪星期四对纽约时报表示，军队接管对埃及是“最不痛苦的选择”。巴拉迪说，埃及没有罢免总统的程序，不过，“数百万民众用他们站在解放广场的双脚”发出了罢免穆尔西的要求。巴拉迪说，他认为，埃及“甚至连一个星期”也不可能再等了。
另外，联合国秘书长潘基文星期四呼吁埃及政治中的“所有各方”举行谈判。北约和欧盟领导人也敦促克制，与此同时，非盟表示，将考虑是否中止埃及的成员国资格。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610327&ptid=116149]18#[/url] [i]施国英[/i] [/b]甘阳和刘小枫一丘之貉，＂左＂个P. [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610325&ptid=116149]17#[/url] [i]老程[/i] [/b]该来的一定会按照规律来。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610331&ptid=116149]19#[/url] [i]施国英[/i] [/b]呵呵，埃及军队和米国的关系地球人都知道。 一年一开茉莉花，气出了，钱没了，埃及元气大伤。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610339&ptid=116149]23#[/url] [i]老程[/i] [/b]埃及这地方本来就是靠米国的军火和面粉维稳的。 [i=s] 本帖最后由 向永 于 2013-7-5 14:37 编辑 [/i]
【换了总统，就是换了一个经理】埃及主要收入来源是农业、旅游业、苏伊士运河航运、还有是侨汇。现在的情况和2011年的某某之春有很大差别。其军队和警察是中立性质。所以他们是政局乱、社会不乱。换作当地人的话来说，换了总统，就是换了一个经理。因为穆尔西总统并没有在其曾诺的100天的期限改善、两年之内改善民生。然而，两年来，大量的廉价油被走私出国，造成当地民众的汽车加油都要排队（他们长期以来1升油相当于1元人民币左右）。接着，其和哈马斯关系密切引发公众不满；国家唯一的母亲河尼罗河的上游，是在埃塞尔比亚。但就是穆尔西访问回来后第二天埃塞尔比亚宣布在尼罗河上造大坝，这愈发引发居民不满；连续关闭了几十家媒体，影响新闻自由，又引发民众不满。但埃及才2年的民主，其宪法是没办法罢免总统的，所以，出现军方罢免总统的这样合理但违法的事件出现。但军队，还有警察属于中立，所以社会不乱，换个总统就是换个经理而已。人家从独裁到才2岁的幼稚民主，发展到这种程度已经算了不起了。埃及民众没人愿意回到2011年之前的独裁时代。 上文中的航运业就是苏伊士运河的买路钱收入。 至于大量媒体的选择性报道其乱的方面，不报道其警察维稳的良好状态可能是报道角度的问题吧。 至于是否用政变这个词还值得商讨，因为其军方并没有代表任何党派夺权，顺应了大众的民意，但却是违法了。只能说其实幼稚的法治，起步阶段的民主，但回到以往的独裁不可能了。 Death toll rises after Egypt clashes
Advertisement
6 July 2013 Last updated at 04:41 GMT Help
The death toll in Egypt continues to rise as clashes in Cairo between supporters and opponents of the ousted President Mohammed Morsi become more violent.
Twelve people have died in Alexandria and three in Cairo in clashes, reports say.
The BBC's Quentin Sommerville reports.
[url]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23208924[/url]
27楼真是金口玉言，多么和平安详的埃及呀！多么可恶的BBC啊。 Islamist protests hit cities across Egypt, at least 24 dead
By Mike Collett-White and Alastair Macdonald
CAIRO | Fri Jul 5, 2013 7:46pm EDT
(Reuters) - At least 24 people died across Egypt on Friday as Islamists opposed to the overthrow of President Mohamed Mursi took to the streets to vent their fury at what they say was a military coup.
Fierce clashes in the Mediterranean city of Alexandria left 12 dead and 200 injured, while in Cairo, five people were killed as pro- and anti-Mursi protesters ran amok in central areas and armored personnel carriers rumbled among them to restore calm.
Five police officers were gunned down in separate incidents in the North Sinai town of El Arish, and while it was not clear whether the attacks were linked to Mursi's ouster, hardline Islamists there have warned they would fight back.
Tens of thousands of people marched across the country in what Mursi's Muslim Brotherhood movement called a "Friday of Rage" to demonstrate against his overthrow and the army-backed interim government being set up to prepare for new elections.
A new prime minister could be named as early as Saturday.
Egypt's first freely elected president was toppled on Wednesday, the latest twist in a tumultuous two years since the fall of Hosni Mubarak in the Arab Spring uprisings that swept the region in 2011.
The events of the last week have aroused concern among Egypt's allies in the West, including key donors the United States and the European Union, and in neighboring Israel, with which Egypt has had a U.S.-backed peace treaty since 1979.
Friday's fatalities added to the dozens of deaths in a month of unrest. Last Sunday, huge rallies in Cairo and other cities called for Mursi's resignation, venting anger over economic stagnation and perceptions of a Brotherhood power grab.
His overthrow was greeted with wild scenes of celebration but infuriated supporters who fear a return to the suppression of Islamists they endured under generations of military rule.
It has deepened Egypt's crisis. With its supporters enraged by Mursi's removal from power, the Brotherhood says it wants nothing to do with what the army has billed as an inclusive transition plan, culminating in fresh elections.
The military has given scarce details - its road map gave no timeframe for a new ballot - adding to political uncertainty at a time when many Egyptians fear violence could polarize society even further.
Leftist former presidential candidate Hamdeen Sabahi told Reuters he hoped the transition could last only six months. And, in common with allies on the liberal left, he insisted there had been no military coup. He called the idea an insult to Egypt.
RISING TENSIONS
In an early incident that raised tensions in Cairo, three protesters were shot dead outside the Republican Guard barracks where deposed Mursi is being held, security sources said.
The army denied blame for the shootings. An army spokesman said troops did not open fire on the demonstrators and soldiers used blank rounds and teargas to control the crowd.
It was unclear whether security forces units other than army troops were also present.
Later, tens of thousands of cheering Islamists gathered near a mosque in a Cairo suburb where they were addressed by Brotherhood leader Mohamed Badie, free to address them despite reports on Thursday that he had been arrested.
Badie, like some other leaders, pledge that it was worth "our lives" to restore Mursi to the presidency. But Brotherhood officials have also insisted they will not resort to violence.
After dark, running battles broke out in the area between Tahrir Square and the state broadcasting headquarters. Reuters journalists saw hundreds of youths from either side skirmish around the highway ramps of a major bridge over the Nile.
There was some shotgun fire, rocks flew and fireworks shot between rival groups. A car was burned out. Protesters erected makeshift shields for protection. The Brotherhood said 18 of its supporters were wounded after they were attacked by "thugs".
Reuters journalists saw several men with shotgun wounds.
The army, which had pledged to protect demonstrators and keep rival factions apart, had troops in the area but violence only ended after some three hours when half a dozen armored personnel carriers arrived and took up position on the bridge.
Islamists also took to the streets in cities across the country, including Assiut, Damanhour, Ismailia, and in the Nile Delta towns of Gharbeya and Beheira.
SINAI ATTACKS
In the Sinai peninsula bordering Israel, where Egypt has struggled to control security since Mubarak was toppled, five police officers were gunned down in separate attacks in the town of El Arish, medical sources said.
Hardline Islamist groups have exploited a collapse in state authority after the uprising to launch attacks into Israel and on Egyptian targets.
The violence will ring alarm bells in the United States. Washington has so far avoided referring to the army's removal of Mursi as a "coup", a word that under U.S. law would require a halt to its $1.5 billion in annual aid.
Mursi's opponents also say it was not a coup but an intervention to impose the "people's will".
The Brotherhood's key political strategist, Khairat El-Shater, became the latest senior figure to be arrested since Mursi's removal.
A legal technicality forced Shater's withdrawal from the presidential campaign last year, promoting Mursi into being the movement's candidate.
Brotherhood spokesman Gehad El-Haddad said the movement was faced with a crackdown from a state establishment unreformed from the days of Mubarak: "It's the old police state of Mubarak with every ingredient and nightmare that it had before the January 25 revolution. It's as if we hit the reset button."
But many Egyptians saw the military as a guarantor of stability at a dangerous time for the largest Arab nation of 84 million people.
"Maybe they will need to issue a curfew. Maybe the trouble will last a few days," said Said Asr, 41, sitting with friends outside a Cairo cafe smoking a cigarette. "But the army is everything in this country. And they are taking control."
(Reporting by Asma Alsharif, Mike Collett-White, Alexander Dziadosz, Maggie Fick, Alastair Macdonald, Sarah McFarlane, Shadia Nasralla, Tom Perry, Yasmine Saleh, Paul Taylor, and Patrick Werr in Cairo, Abdelrahman Youssef in Alexandria and Yursi Mohamed in Ismailia; Writing by Mike Collett-White; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)
[url]http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/05/us-egypt-protests-idUSBRE95Q0NO20130705[/url]
来来来，27楼去哪里了？赶快来驳斥一下！ 这有点如同文革中两派争斗的现象，但埃及军队和警察处于中立。上述新闻误导大家眼球以为军队枪杀了30人。其实是两派冲突引起，军队是违法地充当了警察的位置。但是要不如此，你想象一下某国文革开始武斗情况。 只有2年民主进程的埃及能达到目前社会不乱，军队及警察中立己相当不错。试想我们去年抗议钓鱼岛事件引发的混乱，只是用了日本车就被砸车爆头，要是真有反对意见的人上街是什么情况。恐怕不会比落后我们三十年的埃及表现得更包容性和秩序性。 [i=s] 本帖最后由 三苗 于 2013-7-8 09:44 编辑 [/i]
[b][url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610479&ptid=116149]31#[/url] [i]向永[/i] [/b]
1、你的类比十分可笑，政治和社会派别及其冲突根本是司空见惯的事情，和文革有半毛钱关系？
2、你的＂逻辑＂更加幼稚，在派别冲突中死的人就不是死人了？这样就伟光正了？是不是还要下发文件学习一下伟大意义？
3、埃及军方在此次事件中的作用根本是公开的，穆斯林兄弟会的那些人难道是自觉自动地进了监狱？难道穆尔西是自己主动自愿地进入兵营？你这样洗地太愚蠢了吧！太拙劣了吧！
本来政治和社会冲突稀松平常，你这样欲盖弥彰，呵呵。 1、军方不得已的控制民选总统。没有军方和警察的“维稳”死的人会更多。
2、同样司空见惯的事，埃及军方和警察能控制了死亡的人数比文革强。
3、军方违法充当了宪法法院执行机构或国会、议会等机构的作用，尽管军方是违法的。今后也肯定会为此付出代价的。但比较而言，埃及军方与其他执政主体用军队镇压另一方的政治高压有本质区别。穆斯林兄弟会照样还可以聚会抗议。换独裁国家试试看。当然用“维稳”这个词是有点侮辱了埃及军方和警察。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610586&ptid=116149]34#[/url] [i]向永[/i] [/b]
请问，除了你之外，还有谁在这个帖子里反复把埃及政变和文革相提并论了？对比了？树个靶子自己打很有趣吗？无聊不无聊？
是不是因为有了文革，这个世界上所有的事情就全部伟光正了？禁止评论了？莫名其妙！ [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610586&ptid=116149]34#[/url] [i]向永[/i] [/b]
1、你也知道埃及军方是＂违法＂的啊，无论是否＂得已＂，也就是说，你把你自己前面说的话吞回去了？这样就好。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610586&ptid=116149]34#[/url] [i]向永[/i] [/b]
2、不好意思，埃及军方射杀穆斯林兄弟会支持者的新闻就在BBC首页。你是看不到呢还是看不懂？回去后就转，复制粘贴容易得很、快得很。 8 July 2013 Last updated at 08:56 GMT
At least 40 people have been killed in a shooting incident in Cairo, say officials and the Muslim Brotherhood, amid continuing unrest over the removal of President Mohammed Morsi.
The Brotherhood says its members were fired on while they were holding a sit-in at a Presidential Guard barrack.
But the army said a "terrorist group" had tried to storm the barracks.
Mr Morsi, an Islamist and Egypt's first freely elected president, was ousted by the army last week after mass protests.
Scores of people have been killed since the unrest began last weekend.
Mr Morsi is believed to be held at the Presidential Guard Club, in the eastern Nasr City district of the capital.
Continue reading the main story
Analysis
Ahmed Maher
BBC Arabic, Cairo
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There was a sombre mood in Cairo as people woke up to the news of killing and bloodshed.
Eyewitness accounts of what happened outside the Presidential Guards Club have inflamed the already simmering tensions. For Egyptians, it is shocking news no matter who started the gunfight.
The deadly incident is not the first. On Friday, three protesters were killed at the same spot in unclear circumstances but against a backdrop of a stand-off between the army and the pro-Morsi protesters.
The latest shooting is likely to lead to a political breakdown as the Islamist Nour party, the largest Salafist group, withdrew from marathon talks with interim president Adly Mansour to form a caretaker government.
His supporters - many of them members of the Muslim Brotherhood movement he comes from - have been staging a sit-in there demanding his reinstatement.
After Monday morning's violence, the hardline Salafist Nour party - which had supported Mr Morsi's removal - said it was withdrawing from talks to choose an interim prime minister, describing the shooting incident as a "massacre".
'Weapons seized'
Both the Brotherhood and the Egyptian health ministry said at least 40 people had been killed, including an army officer.
Some 300 people were reported to be wounded.
TV channels broadcast images of dead and injured people being taken to a makeshift hospital in the Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque, where Brotherhood supporters have been based.
But there were conflicting reports over how the violence unfolded.
The Muslim Brotherhood said the army had raided its sit-in at about 04:00 (02:00 GMT) as protesters were performing dawn prayers.
"The protesters were taken unawares and the troops used live ammunition, bird shot and tear gas," protester Alaa el-Hadidi told the BBC.
Continue reading the main story
Bowen: Failed democratic experiment
What next for Muslim Brotherhood?
Another protester, Mahmud al-Shilli, told AFP news agency that troops had used tear gas but that a group of men in civilian clothing had then opened fire.
"The thugs came from the side. We were the target," he told AFP.
The Freedom and Justice Party, the Brotherhood's political wing - which took nearly half the seats in last year's historic election - called on Egyptian's to stage an "uprising" in response to the incident, against "those trying to steal their revolution with tanks".
It also urged "the international community and international groups and all the free people of the world to intervene to stop further massacres" and to stop Egypt becoming "a new Syria".
But in a statement read on state media, the army blamed the shooting on "an armed terrorist group" that had tried to storm the barracks.
Continue reading the main story
Army's post-Morsi roadmap
Constitution to be suspended temporarily and interim president sworn in
"Strong and competent" civilian technocratic government to be installed
Supreme Court to pass a draft law on parliamentary election and prepare for parliamentary and presidential polls
"Charter of honour" to be drawn up and followed by the media
Measures taken to empower young people and a national reconciliation committee to be formed
Coup or no coup?
World reaction
Profile: Adly Mahmud Mansour
It said an army officer was among those killed and that a number of others were wounded, some critically.
The statement said some 200 people had been arrested and were found to have weapons, ammunition and petrol bombs.
The BBC's Jim Muir in Cairo says that despite the conflicting reports, it is clear that blood has been shed, which will aggravate an already critical situation.
The withdrawal of the ultra-conservative Nour party from the political transition talks will also set back efforts to appoint a new prime minister, our correspondent adds.
Party spokesman Nadder Bakkar said it had "decided to withdraw immediately from all negotiations in response to the massacre".
Though the Islamist party had backed the army-led "roadmap" to new elections, it had blocked the appointment of two potential prime ministers because of concerns over the shape of a new constitution.
Mr Morsi was replaced on Thursday by Adly Mansour - the head of the Supreme Constitutional Court. He has pledged to hold elections soon, but has as yet given no date for them.
The army has insisted it does not want to remain in power.
On Sunday, tens of thousands of both supporters and opponents of Mr Morsi rallied in many Egyptian cities.
[url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23222546]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23222546[/url] 任何以武装形式袭击军营的情况，后果都是很严重的。这和街头暴力有本质区别。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610647&ptid=116149]39#[/url] [i]向永[/i] [/b]
1、你根据什么认为埃及军方的说法就是一定正确的？证据在哪里？
2、前面你给“街头暴力”洗地的帖子还在那里呢，你不会这么健忘吧。
3、不管是“街头暴力”还是别的什么，总之你自我标榜的“秩序”在哪里？
转进+洗地，无非如此而已。 [i=s] 本帖最后由 三苗 于 2013-7-9 11:18 编辑 [/i]
[b][url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610647&ptid=116149]39#[/url] [i]向永[/i] [/b]
前面说“街头暴力”如何如何
现在军方开枪了，“中立”的面目维持不了了，又开始……了。
“就是好来就是好”——你就会这招了我知道。 冲击军营，军队肯定开枪，否则后果是内战。你怀疑军队是否中立，看其宪法修改及事态发展吧。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610742&ptid=116149]42#[/url] [i]向永[/i] [/b]
转两条BBC 新闻，方便简单又轻松
Egypt crisis: Both sides 'disillusioned' by politics
[url=http://faq.external.bbc.co.uk/questions/bbc_online/adverts_general][color=#0066cc]Advertisement[/color][/url]
[color=#0066cc][/color]
10 July 2013 Last updated at 09:21 GMT [url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/help-21352667][color=#0066cc]Help[/color][/url]
The main liberal opposition coalition in Egypt has rejected interim leader Adly Mansour's decree, which sets a new election timetable to try and stop the unrest.
The National Salvation Front (NSF) demanded more changes and consultation on the document.
The BBC's Rana Jawad in Cairo says that supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood are "disillusioned" with the political process. The Tamarod protest movement, which initially supported the army's intervention which ousted Islamist President Mohammed Morsi, has also said it rejects the constitutional declaration.
[url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23251615]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23251615[/url]
Egypt unrest: Liberal opposition rejects transition plan
[url=http://faq.external.bbc.co.uk/questions/bbc_online/adverts_general][color=#0066cc]Advertisement[/color][/url]
[color=#0066cc][/color]
10 July 2013 Last updated at 05:47 GMT [url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/help-21352667][color=#0066cc]Help[/color][/url]
The main liberal opposition coalition in Egypt has rejected interim leader Adly Mansour's decree, which sets a new poll timetable to stop the unrest.
The National Salvation Front (NSF) demanded more changes and consultation on the document.
Both the Muslim Brotherhood, which supports ousted Islamist President Mohammed Morsi, and the Tamarod protest movement have rejected the decree.
Catharina Moh reports.
[url=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23250721]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23250721[/url]
你评论问题的时候，连看个新闻了解下事态发展的习惯，或者能力都没有？？？？？？？真可怜哪！
脑补很HIGH，是不是？ 一开始，还以为三苗被修理好了，懂得什么叫证据，但是，过不了多久，又本性暴露，以己推人，要别人补脑。
中国文革时，一开始，主要是群氓攻击已经定罪的右派、反革命分子，惨无人道地迫害这些人致死，这些人死后，造反派分为两派或者几派，都自称捍卫毛主席，对方是反革命，发生局部武斗，军队介入，也说是中立的，不过，有些派别说军队偏袒，发生更大规模的冲突，如武汉的720事件。
但是，中国文革时造反是皇帝煽动的，皇帝动员之前，民间并没有信仰相反的两派，皇帝动员后，造反派，都自称捍卫皇帝，要打倒皇帝身边的阴谋家。情况与埃及完全不同。
一旦皇帝出面说，两派都是群众组织，都是忠于毛主席的，要大联合，这时，出现非常奇怪恶心的现象，在城市广场上，两派人齐刷刷地穿着红卫兵的军装，台上两派代表（还一男一女）向毛主席念大联合声明，诗朗诵一样的语言，昨天的流血全然不管了，剩下的都是心连心的革命群众了。
这是中国愚民的特有现象。
当然埃及有埃及的问题，与中国不一样，文化程度也不一样，有些地方比中国落后（如食品工业），有些地方先进，如民众逼迫总统下台的行为，在中国，不可想象。
中国当前的抗日游行，也是奉旨游行，奉旨愤怒，借机发泄，真正的矛盾是官民矛盾，但是官利用愚民以及愚民组成的军队，洗脑式地维持独裁高压统治。
在反贪上，民间的观点是一致的，但是，如何反贪，则确实有两派，一派是毛派，主张回到毛泽东年代由伟人统治，用更大的权力限制腐败，杀贪官什么的。另一派是民主宪政派，依靠制度来限制腐败。民主显然不认为毛派能解决问题，但是毛派不明白民主是怎么回事，就是三苗一类的人，稀里糊涂地反对西方民主，抗日反美，他们执政后，又是一个独裁暴力的贪污腐败政权，但是他们不承认的。
那么，对于抗日一类游行，奉旨游行，已经暴力四起，当局因不是真正的抗日，如果让暴民任意发展抗日情绪，必然引火烧身，于是马上压制下去。不压制，确实全国会一片火光，砸了寿司店，必然砸政府的日系车。
情况完全不一样的。 [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610767&ptid=116149]44#[/url] [i]菜农[/i] [/b]
看来你真的是有暴露癖哎。[size=6][color=red]不仅你的大脑需要修补，你的眼睛也需要。[/color][/size]
[size=6][color=red]1、睁大你的狗眼看清楚这个帖子里面说的是哪个国家发生的事情！[/color][/size]
[size=6][color=red][/color][/size]
[size=6][color=red][/color][/size]
[size=6][color=red]2、前面是谁把埃及的事情和文革相提并论的，也麻烦你睁大狗眼看清楚！[/color][/size] 本性难改，又开始破口大骂，还大红字，你就这样气急败坏，能表明你真理在握吗？ [i=s] 本帖最后由 三苗 于 2013-7-11 08:54 编辑 [/i]
[b][url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610767&ptid=116149]44#[/url] [i]菜农[/i] YC18YC[color=#003366] YC18YC YC18YC [/color][/b]
[size=4][color=black]顺便说一下哈，你整天COSPLAY复读机的表现呢[/color][/size]
[size=4][color=black][/color][/size]
[size=4][color=black]1、早已把你的愚蠢和低能表达得淋漓尽致无以复加，[/color][/size][size=4][color=black]不需要继续了。:7tb :85tb [/color][/size]
[size=4][color=black][/color][/size]
[size=6][color=red]当然，如果你要告诉我：你除了弱智，还是弱视——或者青光眼白内障什么的，我承认，这个精神，一文不值。:84tb :69tb[b][color=#003366] [/color][/b][/color][/size]
[size=4][color=black][/color][/size]
[size=4][color=black]2、你的这种行为呢，韩少功的小说《爸爸爸》，李国文的小说《花园街5号》里面都写了，你是在为这两本小说免费做广告么？你还真是放屁添风一以贯之啊！YC18YC YC18YC YC18YC[/color][color=#003366][b] YC18YC YC18YC [/b][/color][/size]
[size=4][color=#000000][/color][/size]
[size=4][color=#000000][/color][/size]
[size=4][color=#000000][/color][/size] [b] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610774&ptid=116149]46#[/url] [i]菜农[/i] [/b]
呵呵呵呵
这就叫做[size=6][color=red]因材施教[/color][/size]
[size=6][color=red]我说了你这种蠢到家还要洋洋自得的货听不懂的话，岂不是浪费精力和时间？至于字体和颜色，这是照顾你弱智之外的弱视——你如果还有色盲色弱什么的请尽早提出，我一定会照顾你的噢。[/color][/size] 现在埃及发生了什么事情大家都知道了吧。 [quote]【换了总统，就是换了一个经理】埃及主要收入来源是农业、旅游业、苏伊士运河航运、还有是侨汇。现在的情况和2011年的某某之春有很大差别。其军队和警察是中立性质。所以他们是政局乱、社会不乱。换作当地人的话来说 ...
[size=2][color=#999999]向永 发表于 2013-7-5 14:30[/color] [url=http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/redirect.php?goto=findpost&pid=610349&ptid=116149][img]http://www.yantan.cc/bbs/images/common/back.gif[/img][/url][/size][/quote]现在的事实证明你胡说八道
埃及清场死亡人数：临时政府称278 穆兄会称2600多
埃及清场死亡人数：临时政府称278 穆兄会称2600多人民网8月15日讯 综合外电报道，埃及临时政府官员说，14日实行宵禁以后，全国恢复了平静。在此之前，防暴警察用装甲车和推土机捣毁了抗议者在开罗的两个营地。
埃及临时政府说，14日的清场行动中有278人死亡，其中有43名警察。但是，穆斯林兄弟会的一名发言人说，警察用自动步枪向示威人群开火，打死2600多人。穆斯林兄弟会要求恢复被推翻的总统穆尔西的职务。
目击者和记者说，他们看到战地医院和临时停尸房里有尸体。随着对镇压的愤怒在蔓延，伊斯兰主义者还在在亚历山大、明亚、阿斯由特和苏伊士等城市骚乱。
埃及内政部长易卜拉欣说，警察对抗议者营地使用了最低限度的武力，仅仅使用了催泪弹。他指责穆斯林兄弟会在全国制造混乱，并且指责他们朝警察开火、袭击政府建筑并烧毁教堂。他说，临时政府在根据民众的要求恢复国家的稳定。
与此同时，埃及的临时副总统、倾向于改革的领导人埃尔巴拉迪辞职。他说， 他不想为“哪怕一滴流血”承担责任。 [i=s] 本帖最后由 吹笛在湖北 于 2013-8-15 12:21 编辑 [/i]
从工發表於 1 小時前 | 只看該作者
清场照片，堪比柳丝：
[url=http://news.ifeng.com/photo/hdne]http://news.ifeng.com/photo/hdne[/url] ... 8613017_0.shtml#p=1
[attach]60914[/attach] [img]http://www.guancha.cn/pic/2013/8/15/63512156684259939816.jpg[/img] [img][[img]http://www.guancha.cn/pic/2013/8/15/63512156699064365817.jpg[/img]/img] [img[img]http://www.guancha.cn/pic/2013/8/15/63512156731528022819.jpg[/img]][/img] [img[img]http://www.guancha.cn/pic/2013/8/15/63512156878807881527.jpg[/img]][/img]
开罗大学附近，一具示威者的遗体。 [img[img]http://www.guancha.cn/pic/2013/8/15/63512156897465514228.jpg[/img]][/img]
示威营地附近燃烧的大楼。 [img[img]http://www.guancha.cn/pic/2013/8/15/63512157017024124233.jpg[/img]][/img] [img]http://www.guancha.cn/pic/2013/8/15/63512157193210833743.jpg[/img]
在清场行动中丧生的人员遗体。 [img]http://www.guancha.cn/pic/2013/8/15/63512157271600971447.jpg[/img]
页:
[1]
2