Greek leftist leader Tsipras claims victory over austerity
[i=s] 本帖最后由 三苗 于 2015-1-26 11:02 编辑 [/i][url=http://www.reuters.com/news/picture/greek-leftist-leader-tsipras-claims-vict?articleId=USKBN0KY00520150126&slide=1][img]http://s3.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20150125&t=2&i=1019832877&w=&fh=&fw=&ll=580&pl=378&r=LYNXMPEB0O0GO[/img][color=#0066cc] [/color][/url]
1 of 14. Head of radical leftist Syriza party Tsipras speaks after winning elections in Athens, January 25, 2015.
Credit: Reuters/Marko Djurica
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[list][*][url=http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2015/01/23/likely-victors-in-greek-election-may-pull-nation-out-of-eurozone/][color=#0066cc]Likely victors in Greek election may pull nation out of eurozone[/color][/url][*][url=http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2015/01/23/clean-sweep-for-draghi/][color=#0066cc]Clean sweep for Draghi?[/color][/url][/list]
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[list][*][url=http://www.reuters.com/news/world][color=#0066cc]World »[/color][/url][*][url=http://www.reuters.com/places/greece][color=#0066cc]Greece »[/color][/url][/list]
ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek leftist leader Alexis Tsipras promised on Sunday that five years of austerity, "humiliation and suffering" imposed by international creditors were over after his Syriza party swept to victory in a snap election on Sunday.
With about 92 percent of votes counted, Syriza was set to win 149 seats in the 300-seat parliament, taking 36.3 percent of the vote, 8.5 points ahead of the conservative New Democracy party of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras.
Samaras conceded victory but only the final result, expected in the early hours of Monday will show whether Syriza has won the 151 seats that would allow it to rule alone.
Nevertheless, the 40-year-old Tsipras is on course to become prime minister of the first [url=http://bit.ly/1stXLRA][color=#0066cc]euro [/color][color=#0066cc]zone[/color][/url] government openly opposed to the kind of severe austerity policies which the European Union and International Monetary Fund imposed on Greece as a condition of its bailout.
"Greece leaves behinds catastrophic austerity, it leaves behind fear and authoritarianism, it leaves behind five years of humiliation and anguish," Tsipras told thousands of cheering supporters gathered in Athens.
Financial markets reacted nervously to the victory of Tspiras, who has promised to renegotiate Greece's debt agreements, fearing potential conflict with other euro zone governments that could put more strain on the currency bloc.
The euro slid to near an 11-year low and U.S. stock futures fell as Asian markets opened on Monday.
Germany, Europe's biggest economy, has insisted Greece must respect the terms of its 240 billion euro ($268 billion) bailout deal, which saved the country from bankruptcy but at the cost of bitter sacrifices by the Greek people.
As thousands of flag-waving supporters hit the streets of Athens, some shedding tears of joy, Germany's Bundesbank warned Greece it needed reform to tackle its economic problems.
Syriza's campaign slogan "Hope is coming!" resonated with voters worn down by huge budget cuts and heavy tax rises during six years of crisis that has sent unemployment over 25 percent and pushed millions into poverty.
"We hope our expectations will be fulfilled," said 47-year-old teacher Efi Avgoustakoushe. "On Monday in class, we're not allowed to comment and take sides but we will be smiling."
"LOST DIGNITY"
Tsipras said he would cooperate with fellow euro zone leaders for "a fair and mutually beneficial solution" but said the Greek people came first. "Our priority from the very first day will be to deal with the big wounds left by the crisis," he said. "Our foremost priority is that our country and our people regain their lost dignity."
He has promised to keep [url=http://bit.ly/1stZ9nf][color=#0066cc]Greece[/color][/url] in the euro and has toned down some of his rhetoric but his arrival in power would mark the biggest challenge yet to the approach adopted to the crisis by euro zone governments.
Syriza's victory is likely to encourage other anti-austerity parties which are winning support across Europe, such as the Podemos movement in Spain.
But it might also strengthen the hand of mainstream leaders including French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi who argue that orthodox austerity policies have failed to produce the economic growth which Europe needs to recover fully from the global financial crisis.
Hollande expressed in a statement his "desire to pursue the close cooperation between our two countries in service of growth and the stability of the euro zone".
Finnish Foreign Minister Erkki Tuomioja was more forthright, saying he believed the result would change the debate in Europe and put more emphasis on growth and employment. "This is a slap at what I see as a very right-wing economic policy in Europe," Tuomioja, a Social Democrat, told the website of the Helsingin Sanomat newspaper.
However with Greece's economy unlikely to recover for years, Tsipras faces enormous problems and his victory raises the prospect of tough negotiations with European partners including German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Greece's bailout deal with the euro zone is due to end on Feb. 28 and Tsipras' immediate challenge will be to settle doubts over the next installment of more than 7 billion euros in international aid. EU finance ministers are due to discuss the issue in Brussels on Monday.
If Syriza falls short of a majority, Tsipras will have to try to build a coalition with smaller parties or form a minority government with ad-hoc support from others in parliament.
"It's a historic win," said Athens-based political analyst John Loulis, adding that Tsipras would have to form a coalition to prevent renewed instability. "He has no other option, the last thing the country needs would be another round of elections
Negotiations are likely to begin immediately, and both the small Independent Greeks party and centrist To Potami party, said they would be willing to support an anti-bailout government. If Syriza requires support to govern, it may find itself hostage to its partners' demands, raising questions over how durable a Tsipras government would prove.
STANDOFF WITH BERLIN
Tsipras has promised to renegotiate agreements with the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund "troika" and write off much of Greece's 320 billion-euro debt, which at more than 175 percent of gross domestic product, is the world's second highest after [url=http://bit.ly/1svQNRI][color=#0066cc]Japan[/color][/url].
Coming after the ECB's move to pump billions into the bloc's flagging economy, Sunday's result will stir consternation in Berlin. A senior lawmaker in Merkel's conservative party said the result showed Greek voters had turned away from austerity but he said Europe could not accept rejection of the bailout.
"We must not reward the breaching of agreements," Wolfgang Bosbach told the daily Osnabruecker Zeitung newspaper. "That would send completely the wrong signal to other crisis-stricken countries that would then expect the same treatment."
Tsipras wants to roll back many of the measures demanded by the "troika", raising the minimum wage, lowering power prices for poor families, cutting property taxes and reversing pension and public sector pay cuts.
U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan said the result could weigh on markets but that it considered speculation over a possible Greek exit from the euro was "a stretch" and a negotiated deal appeared the most likely outcome. "Our base case remains that a Syriza government or Syriza-dominated coalition would alter its platform to retain troika financing," it said.
Greece, unable to tap the markets because of sky-high borrowing costs, has enough cash to meet its immediate funding needs for the next couple of months but it faces around 10 billion euros of debt repayments over the summer.
(Additional reporting by Lefteris Karagiannopoulos, George Georgiopoulos, [url=http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=costaspitas&][color=#0066cc]Costas Pitas[/color][/url], Angeliki Koutantou, [url=http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=deepa.babington&][color=#0066cc]Deepa Babington[/color][/url] and Michelle Martin.; Editing by [url=http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=philippa.fletcher&][color=#0066cc]Philippa Fletcher[/color][/url] and [url=http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=david.stamp&][color=#0066cc]David Stamp[/color][/url])
FILED UNDER:
[url=http://www.reuters.com/news/world][color=#0066cc]World[/color][/url]
[url=http://www.reuters.com/places/greece][color=#0066cc]Greece[/color][/url]
[url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/26/us-greece-election-idUSKBN0KY00520150126]http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/26/us-greece-election-idUSKBN0KY00520150126[/url] The Coalition of the Radical Left[11] (Greek: Συνασπισμός Ριζοσπαστικής Αριστεράς, Synaspismós Rizospastikís Aristerás), known colloquially by its acronym SYRIZA (Greek: ΣΥΡΙΖΑ, pronounced [ˈsiɾiza]), is a left-wing political party in Greece, originally founded as a coalition of left-wing and radical left parties.
The coalition originally comprised a broad array of groups (thirteen in total) and independent politicians, including democratic socialists, left-wing populist and green left groups, as well as Maoist, Trotskyist, eurocommunist but also eurosceptic components.
[url]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coalition_of_the_Radical_Left[/url]
SYRIZA简介 腊向左——欧洲朝右！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！！[img]http://images.haotui.com/dz7/smilies/default/biggrin.gif[/img]
[url=http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/cartoon/][img=300,192]http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/attachement/jpg/site1/20150127/a41f72773d1b16311d4b10.JPG[/img][/url] Greece may exit from eurozone As Greece rejects austerity - we can do it here
Syriza supporters celebrate after the party won Greeces general election last Sunday
Syriza supporters celebrate after the party won Greece's general election last Sunday (Pic: Guy Smallman)
The Greek election result is an inspiring boost to everyone fighting the warped priorities of the bosses and the Tories.
It has shouted loud that we don’t have to accept austerity.
Two main factors explain Syriza’s success. One was the scale of the economic assault.
When the economic crisis swept the globe, the Troika of the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund provided £165 billion of loans to Greece.
But 90 percent of it went to bail out Europe’s banks and hedge funds.
And the Greek people were left with the bill.
Workers faced devastating cuts in wages and pensions. Large swathes of the health service were effectively abolished while unemployment rocketed.
A recent report from the European Commission admits that those affected by “severe deprivation of basic goods” doubled to one in five between 2008 and 2013.
The result of the bankers’ “fiscal waterboarding”, as new prime minister Alexis Tsipras calls it, was soaring rates of homelessness, illness and suicide.
But suffering can lead to despair or racist scapegoating.
So the Syriza vote is inconceivable without years of relentless class struggle.
This began in December 2008 when people rioted after the police killed school student Alexandros Grigoropoulos.
Instead of meekly accepting the demands of the bankers and the bosses, Greeks fought back.
There were 32 general strikes, hundreds of smaller strikes, occupations of city and town squares, and student mobilisations. Syriza’s support soared.
But the battles are only just beginning. The ruling class has two ways to deal with the election of radical governments.
It first tries financial pressure to threaten economic annihilation unless the new rulers “see sense”.
If that doesn’t work, more violent methods can be used.
The people of Greece have voted to end austerity. But capitalists don’t care about democracy.
Their power doesn’t live in parliament but in their control of banks, industry, the unelected state apparatus, the police and the army. They will seek to use this power now.
The Financial Times newspaper on Tuesday of this week admitted, “To service its debt burden would require Greece to operate as a quasi slave economy”.
But it insisted that Tsipras must compromise.
The choice for Syriza is to surrender to the blackmail or to confront the bankers.
Tsipras’s choice to go into a “national unity” government with the right wing Independent Greeks is a warning of how he sees the future.
Austerity will not be reversed without refusing to pay any of the debt, taking over the banks under democratic ownership and encouraging workers’ control in key parts of the economy.
This is what Greek workers must fight for.
And they should use the same methods that have brought them to this success—strikes, mass mobilisations, occupations and democracy from below that can go further than Syriza offers.
Everywhere we should raise the demand “Cancel the Greek debt”. But there are other key lessons from Greece.
Katerina Thoidou, a candidate for the Antarsya anti-capitalist coalition, said, “The best form of support for the fight in Greece will be to build strikes and resistance all over Europe.”
So we need to push for more resistance and solidarity.
We need to get behind any groups of workers who strike back.
And we need more battles against racism and Islamophobia.
The 21 March anti-racist and anti-fascist demonstrations, which were originally called from Greece, will be particularly important.
Katerina added, “The biggest challenge for people across Europe will be to build new anti-capitalist parties.”
Britain is not in the same situation as Greece. But we have to do more than applaud and observe.
The SWP has called for a more united left, and a stronger left electoral challenge through the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition.
We hope that everyone cheering when Syriza won will fight together here.
[url]http://www.socialistworker.co.uk/art/39842/As+Greece+rejects+austerity+-+we+can+do+it+here[/url] 希腊，一颗没有烂透的疮
2015年2月1日墙外仙
希腊新财长、曾在雅典大学任经济学教授的Varoufakis说：希腊应该债务违约，但要留在欧元区。“就像老鹰乐队成名曲《加州旅馆》里的最后一句歌词解释了我们当前的处境，‘你想什么时候退房都可以，但你永远无法离去。’”
你要愿意随时都能结账，但你永远别想离开。——老鹰乐队《加州旅馆》
1997年4月，欧洲的财政部长们在布鲁塞尔开会。欧洲各国已经决定要统一货币，发行欧元。新的欧元应该是什么样子？要不要在欧元上印上拉丁文，表示欧洲的悠久历史和精神传承？
希腊财政部长帕潘托尼欧（Yannos Papantoniou）不甘寂寞。他说，欧元上不仅要有拉丁文，最好还有希腊文。德国财政部长魏格尔（Theo Waigel）冷冷的说：“一个贫穷、弱小的半农业国，有什么资格对一种即将在法国和德国这样强大的工业国流通的货币指手画脚？”他甚至不想掩饰自己的鄙夷。魏格尔对帕潘托尼欧说：“你凭什么认为希腊会是欧元的一部分？”
是啊，希腊为什么会是欧元的一部分？
大多数人提起希腊，想到的都是苏格拉底、柏拉图、荷马史诗。希腊是欧洲文明的发源地。但是，现在的希腊，已经不是古代的希腊。从中世纪开始，希腊就变得越来越不像一个欧洲国家。在罗马帝国时期，欧洲的中心的确是在南欧。地中海是英雄和史诗的舞台。但从中世纪起，西欧就开始逐渐崛起。北海直接联通着大西洋，她的开放和地中海的封闭形成了鲜明的对比。西欧地区土壤肥沃、河网密布、森林蓊郁，天然适合农业生产和贸易交往。希腊却被喀尔巴阡山脉隔开，慢慢的和欧洲分道扬镳。它流淌着一半西方的血液，一半东方的血液。如今，希腊已经是一个典型的巴尔干半岛国家。
二战之后，希腊始终跟不上这个世界的节拍，它在队伍的后面越落越远。
当整个欧洲开始从一片瓦砾中迅速复兴的时候，希腊却在打仗。希腊很不幸的成为了冷战的前沿。它周围的几个国家，包括保加利亚、阿尔巴尼亚和南斯拉夫，都加入了苏联阵营。希腊国内的共产党力量也很强大，他们进入北部和南斯拉夫、阿尔巴尼亚接壤的山区，拿起武器打游击战。这是一场冷战导致的内战，也是二战之后的第一场代理人战争。希腊共产党一直坚持战斗到1949年，由于南斯拉夫的铁托和斯大林交恶，而希腊共产党又是坚定的斯大林主义者，失去了南斯拉夫的支援，他们才最终不得不放下武器。随后，希腊成了东南欧唯一一个接受马歇尔计划的国家，是美国在冷战时期楔入巴尔干半岛的一枚棋子。
当整个世界都进入民主化浪潮的时候，希腊出现了军事独裁。在哈佛大学政治学教授亨廷顿看来，20世纪出现了三次民主浪潮，其中第二次就是在二战之后。到20世纪60年代末，世界上约有三分之一的国家是民主国家。1967年4月，希腊爆发了军事政变，帕帕多帕罗斯上校（Georgios Papadopoulos）掌管了政权。直到1974年，文官才再度执政。
即使没有这场军事政变，你也很难说希腊就是一个民主政体。战后的希腊，基本上是由两个家族轮流执政。如果你1944年到希腊，你会发现希腊的总理是帕潘德里欧（George Papandreous）。他是帕潘德里欧爷爷。如果你在1981年到希腊，你会发现希腊的总理还是帕潘德里欧（Andreas Papandreous）。他是帕潘德里欧爸爸。2011年，先是宣布要对该国欧元区地位进行全民公投，后来又临时变卦，最后宣布辞职的希腊总理还是帕潘德里欧（George Papandreous）。他是帕潘德里欧儿子。
当帕潘德里欧家族不在台上的时候，是卡拉曼尼斯家族（Karamanlises）。在20世纪50年代到70年代，康斯坦丁·卡拉曼尼斯先后四次当选希腊总理。在希腊债务危机爆发之前，希腊总理是科斯塔斯·卡拉曼尼斯，他是康斯坦丁·卡拉曼尼斯的侄子。
当整个世界都开始推进经济自由化改革的时候，希腊却沉浸在社会主义建设的幻梦之中。20世纪80年代，美国的里根总统和英国的撒切尔夫人掀起了经济自由化改革的热潮，中国也恰好在这一时期开始了市场化改革。当整个世界都朝右的时候，希腊坚持朝左。1981年到1989年是安德列斯·帕潘德里欧当总理的时候，他是个职业经济学家，在哈佛上过学，在伯克利教过书。但不知道为什么，帕潘德里欧总理对市场经济格外反感。在他执政期间，希腊的国有经济不断膨胀。1980年希腊的公共部门大约占GDP的30%，到1990年已经占到45%。
庞大的国有部门导致希腊经济沉闷而低效。就拿希腊的铁路来说吧。这可能欧洲赔钱最多的铁路系统。2010年，希腊的铁路系统每天都要亏损200万到250万欧元，整个铁路系统的欠债高达110亿欧元。但是，这个铁路系统养活了6500个工人，其中一半以上都在50岁以上。这些工人满心盼望着早点退休，领一份优渥的养老金。希腊平均的退休年龄是58岁，而德国是65岁和67岁。希腊的退休工人拿到的钱是上班时候工资的96%，比德国退休工人能拿到的钱多两倍。
希腊怎么就成了欧元的一部分呢？
事实证明，加入欧元区并不像想象中的那么难。意大利不是加入了吗，西班牙和葡萄牙不是也加入了吗？再多一个希腊又有什么问题呢。欧元区并不是绿茵场上的球队，必须经过严格的选拨，才能成为球员。欧元区更像一个带空调的健身俱乐部，你可以加入之后，才开始锻炼。
1993年，马斯特里赫特条约的墨迹还未干，希腊就已经打好了加入欧元区的申请报告。但是，在20世纪90年代，希腊货币德拉克马（Drachma）多次受到市场上的冲击，希腊的财政赤字占GDP的比例一度高达16%，债务余额占GDP比例始终在100%以上。这样的表现也能加入欧元区？
奇迹突然发生了。到2000年，希腊的财政赤字占GDP的比例大幅度降到1%，通货膨胀降到5%，尽管债务余额占GDP的比例仍然是100%，但总体表现已经相当不错了。2000年3月，希腊拿着这张成绩单，正式申请加入欧元区。到7月就被批准加入。当然，我们现在都知道了，这张成绩单是怎么回事。你懂的。
随后，希腊经济像昙花一样绚丽绽放，又像昙花一样突然枯萎。希腊加入欧元区之后经济增长率为4.2%，在欧元区内仅次于爱尔兰。但是，这是靠借债刺激出来的经济增长。在加入欧元区之前，金融市场上几乎没有人愿意借钱给希腊。因为希腊过去经常有违约的记录。莱因哈特和罗高夫在《这一次不一样：过去八百年金融荒唐事》一书中就提到，从1800年以来，希腊是欧洲违约最多的国家，比拉丁美洲的国家还不靠谱。加入欧元区之后，大家争相借钱给希腊。希腊国债和德国国债的利差缩小到55个基本点。换言之，希腊要想借钱，只用比德国多支付0.5%的利息。
正是这样的大规模举债，使得希腊陷入了主权债务危机。2009年1月标普已经将希腊的信用评级调至A-，是欧元区16国中的最低水平。2009年下半年希腊财政状况继续恶化，导致全球三大评级机构惠誉、标准普尔和穆迪先后下调其主权信用评级，希腊债务危机正式爆发了。
援助希腊的行动一波三折。2010年4月到5月是IMF和欧元区对希腊的第一轮救援。遗憾的是，这次援助来得太晚，给得太少，到2010年底，希腊再度陷入财政困境。这时，欧盟、IMF和欧洲央行又声称希腊未能如约实施财政紧缩，因此可能暂停援助款项的拨付，这再次导致希腊危机恶化。2011年6月，欧元区主导，对希腊实施第二轮救援。但当在第二轮援助计划刚刚提上日程后，希腊总理乔治-帕潘德里欧却在10月份宣布，要就欧盟第二轮援助计划进行全民公投。各国为之哗然。迫于各方面压力，帕潘德里欧于11月4日宣布放弃全民公决，随后黯然下台。新上任的希腊总理卢卡斯·帕帕季莫斯曾经担任过欧洲央行副行长。他主持了和欧元区的艰难谈判。到2012年2月21日，欧元区17国财长才最终批准对希腊的第二轮援助计划，同时要求希腊在2020年之前将债务占GDP的比重控制到121%以下。2012年5月7日希腊举行大选，结果是支持率排名前两位的党派新民主党和左翼联盟均组阁失败，支持率排名第三的泛希腊社会主义党放弃组阁，本次选举以失败收场。受此影响，市场信心一落千丈。到6月份第二次大选中，支持紧缩政策的中间右翼新民主党在选举中获胜。希腊的债务危机又得到了一次暂时的喘息机会。
然后呢？
然后，希腊的债务问题会再度恶化，市场上会再度恐慌。很难设想像希腊这样的国家，怎么才能靠自己还得了债。希腊人没有纳税的习惯。到了要报税的时候，很多希腊大夫都声称，自己从来没有见过一个病人，没有开过一张药方。希腊北部有个城市叫Ekali。这个城市只有324个家庭在填申报表的时候说自己家有游泳池。结果税务部门拿Google地图一搜索，粗略的估计一下，后院里有游泳池的家庭有1.7万户。希腊政府每年因逃税少收的钱至少有300亿美元。
如果你是希腊总理，你有什么办法能让希腊实现经济增长呢？
用扩张性的财政政策？对不起，你已经借了那么多钱。欧盟怎么会答应让你再发债呢？希腊的国债收益率已经高达20%以上，这么高的成本，到哪里融资呢？要不，用紧缩性的财政政策，勒紧裤腰带还钱？对不起，希腊经济已经陷入经济衰退了，再用财政紧缩政策，会进一步加剧经济衰退，经济衰退会进一步导致债务问题恶化。用扩张性的货币政策？货币政策是由欧洲中央银行来定的，不归你管。让货币贬值？哈，你已经加入了欧元区，你早已没有自己的货币了。靠结构性改革，让希腊的工人都变得像德国的工人一样勤劳、高效？希腊缺乏具有竞争力的制造业，能够用于出口的产品占其GDP的比重尚不足7.5%。过于激进的结构性改革势必引发更大的社会动荡。2010年希腊危机刚刚爆发的时候，工人们已经举着镰刀斧头的红旗跑到雅典的大街上了。这面旗帜，欧洲人已经许久没有见到了。
那么，干脆让希腊退出欧元区吧。
欧元区是没有退出条款的。欧盟也没有。这不是欧元设计师们的疏忽。他们是故意而为的。欧元的设计者们都是坚定的欧洲联合主义者，他们要让欧元把长期以来兵戎相向的欧洲各国牢牢的粘在一起，从此没有战争和仇恨。因此，凡是加入欧元的国家，在任何情况下都不许退出。死了都要爱！永远不分开！加入欧元区的国家，就像住进了加州旅馆。
1976年老鹰乐队推出的《加州旅馆》，据说是歌手在吸食大麻之后的迷幻状态下写出来的。
歌词中写到：
我最后记得的事是跑向大门，
要寻找自己来时的路。
看门人说：“放松点吧，
我们天生受到诱惑。
你要愿意随时都能结账，
但你永远别想离开。”
或许，事情还没有到这么宿命的地步。一切的契约不过是纸上的文字。如果一个人下定决心当流氓，世间没有什么力量能够阻止他。那么，如果希腊单方面宣布退出欧元区呢？
希腊的金融体系将在马上崩溃。如果希腊退出欧元区，就会使用自己过去的货币：德拉克马。德拉克马将大幅度贬值。如果你是一个希腊人，过去在银行的存款都是欧元，你会坐等存款大幅度缩水吗？你会连夜到银行排队，把所有的存款取出来，越过喀尔巴阡山山脉，要到瑞士，把钱存在瑞士的银行里。希腊政府会在山口安排更多的士兵和狼狗，防止资本外逃。当你看到出不去之后，你会回到家里，把钱装进一个大皮箱，把皮箱埋在花园的土里，反正你再也不会把钱交给银行了。那么，希腊的银行就会在一夜之间被挤兑破产。
希腊的企业将会成片的倒闭。如果你是一个企业家，你过去的所有业务往来都是欧元计价的。现在换成了德拉克马，你又该怎么办呢？过去借的欧元，现在拿什么还呢？拿德拉克马还？德拉克马急剧贬值，欧元债务就会急剧膨胀，希腊的企业家将会发现，自己已经资不抵债，永远还不起钱了。更要命的是，希腊加入欧元区的同时也就加入了欧盟，退出欧元区的同时就要退出欧盟。但欧盟是个巨大的自由贸易区，是希腊最大的出口市场。据OECD统计，2011年希腊出口的51%都流向了欧盟国家。如果退出欧元，也就意味着退出了欧洲市场。更不用说，已经有欧洲国家放出话，说如果希腊退出，货币贬值，就要对希腊征收惩罚性的关税。
但到了最后的关头，希腊可能真的要退出欧元区才有活路。历史上确实有类似的成功案例。2002年1月，面对不断飙升的融资成本和IMF苛刻的救助条件，无力偿还外债的阿根廷政府宣布放弃盯住美元的联系汇率制，比索大幅贬值70%以上。尽管2002年大幅衰退了10.9%，但阿根廷经济很快便触底反弹。从2003年到此次全球金融危机爆发之前，阿根廷不仅连续5年实现了8%以上的高速增长，还成功的通过债务重组，在2006年之前偿还了所有的拖欠债务。
当然，希腊不是阿根廷。阿根廷是一个大宗商品出口国，它是世界上最大的豆制品出口国，玉米、蜂蜜、铁矿石等大宗商品也在国际市场上占有重要地位。21世纪初，恰逢大宗商品尤其是农产品需求进入扩张周期，价格暴涨，阿根廷的大豆等大宗商品出口才能获得年均10%以上的增长，进而带动经济迅速复苏。在全球金融危机之后，希腊很难再像阿根廷一样，赶上一个良好的外部环境。根据世界银行的预测，未来五年全球经济增长率仅为2%-3%，远低于2003-2007年间4%的平均增长率。
但是，如果希腊真的退出欧元区，那很可能不是它自己要退出，而是欧元区其他国家求着它退出。就拿阿根廷来说吧。在阿根廷正式爆发金融危机之前，华尔街的巨头们已经向国际货币基金组织建议，让阿根廷债务重组。这听起来真是不可思议：一群债权人居然提出建议，让债务人不要再还钱了。这是因为，华尔街对阿根廷彻底绝望了，他们知道阿根廷已经无药可救，还不如早做了结。阿根廷的问题一日不解决，他们就难以在其他的市场上安心的做交易。同样，希腊的问题一日不解决，西班牙、意大利这些南欧大国的形势就一日不安宁，最后甚至会把整个欧洲拖入一个无底深渊。
不就是一个贫穷、弱小的半农业国吗？不就是一个GDP占整个欧元区的比重仅为2%的希腊吗？为什么会让欧洲市场动荡不安、让全球经济阴云密布？
因为希腊是一颗还没有熟透的疮。 [b]左翼上台引挤兑 希腊银行陷入流动性危机 3天损失80亿欧元[/b]
2015年1月29日
据英国《每日电讯报》1月28日消息，希腊是否会进一步获得欧洲央行援助，质疑声不断。储户挤兑数十亿欧元存款，带来股市两位数震荡下跌。
希腊激进左翼联盟近日上台以来，挤兑风险愈加严峻；在欧洲央行可能减少援助的情况下，希腊各大银行流动性危机千钧一发，短短三天，市值暴跌近40%。
FTSE/Athex银行指数28日跌至历史新低，自12月大选以来，跌幅近50%。希腊国民银行(National Bank of Greece)、阿尔法银行(Alpha Bank)、欧洲银行(Eurobank)指数均下滑近20%，总市值自大选以来损失77亿欧元(约合人民币543.2亿元)。受银行股市下挫影响，雅典证券交易所(Athens Stock Exchange)28日亦下跌6.4%。
报道分析认为，27日希腊新财长的任命，可能进一步恶化希腊与欧盟的关系，为能否成功谈拢新的希腊救助计划，增添了未知之数。如果失去欧洲央行的援助，希腊各大银行极有可能投奔希腊中央银行，寻求紧急救助。 5楼的东西的确淋漓尽致地揭露了某些人的嘴脸
1、历史部分
二战中希腊共产党的游击队，亲英美派的消极态度，还有与纳粹合作的势力（中国人应该很熟悉）。
二战后斯大林和丘吉尔的百分比协定，希腊共产党和亲英美派的谈判，后者发动突然袭击（参见Stavrianos: the Balkans since 1453 相关部分）。
作者的目的和立场倒也鲜明。 2、现实部分
5楼的东西不过是一些陈词滥调而已。希腊人的平均劳动时间恰好是超过德国人的。 总之5楼的东西不过就是说
劳动者任何对“市场”这个上帝的有组织抗争都是错的。新自由主义重复了无数次的，呵呵。
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