[转帖]陶冬：中国经济是怎么崛起的？
<font size="2"> </font> <p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">陶冬：中国经济是怎么崛起的？</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span lang="EN-US"></span></font> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">中国经济是世界第四大经济体，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">总值是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">．</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">兆美元。若以</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">PPP</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">（购买力评价）来计算，中国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">实际上已经名列世界第二。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">今天的中国经济总量，不过是美国经济的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％；但换个角度看，去年世界经济的增长为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4.9</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％，其中</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1.4</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％来自中国，美国的贡献为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">0.7</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％，日本的贡献仅为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">0.2</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">中国变化的四大原因</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">第一个，中国神话中讲得最多的是工资。中国制造业的工资，大约是马来西亚的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1/3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">，而马来西亚是日本的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1/10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">；中国工资是墨西哥的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1/3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">，而墨西哥是美国的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1/10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">。换句话说，中国制造业工资与世界一流发达国家的差距，大约是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">∶</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';"><font size="3">第二个原因很少被人提出，那就是中国的资本成本非常低。中国的利率水平很低，我们今天放在银行的储蓄只拿百分之二点几的利息。除去通货膨胀和利息税，钱几乎是白白地放在银行里。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">第三个原因是基础设施的变化。基础设施的大幅度改善，道路、港口、电力供应效率的提高对中国生产力的提升、经济的发展，起到积极而重要的作用。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">第四个原因是，中国有一个非常浓厚的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">“</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">以</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">为中心</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">”</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">的政治文化。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">三个大趋势：</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">第一个趋势是农村的发展。今天中国城乡之间的差别，对经济发展来讲，犹如一条长腿、一条短腿一样，已经开始拖中国经济整体发展的后腿。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">第二，资产升值在中国将进入一个全新的时期。在过去</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">年，经济的增长和生产力的提高在资产价格上没有完全体现出来，但在今后</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">年，资产价格会出现喷泉式的上升。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">第三，金融改革今后</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">年，银行的改革、资本市场的发展、汇率改革、资本项目的开放，应该是中国经济发展的主旋律，也是经济长期繁荣稳定的关键。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">根据我们的研究，从以美元计算收入分配来看，</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> 1999</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">年时，中国人均收入大概有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1200</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">美元左右。到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">年北京奥运会时，中国的人均收入大概就有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4000</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">美元左右。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">从消费来看，今天美国占世界消费的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">32</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％，中国仅占</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％；而到了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2014</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">年，美国占世界总消费的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">28</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％，而中国能占到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">11</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">金融政策分析</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">中国人民银行几次加息，对银行储备金率的调高，以及对银行贷款的行政干预。这些措施对中国经济、对中国房地产会有什么影响呢？</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">简单的答案是：零</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';"><font size="3">今天的过度投资，基本集中在两个领域：基础设施和房地产。我认为，即使是投资出现反弹，北京在基础设施投资方面不会有太大的打压。唯一需要下压的是房地产，而政府对房地产的态度也是左右为难。解决房地产靠加税。</font></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">人民币升值对美国不利。人民币如果升值</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">20</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％，可能对墨西哥有利，可能对马来西亚有利，但帮不上美国的中西部。天</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">80</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">％中国出口美国的产品，与美国的企业有着直接的关联，订单来自戴尔、摩托罗拉、沃尔玛、玩具反斗城。一个芭比娃娃在美国的零售价格是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">19.99</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">美元，可是中国制造商只赚到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">美分，剩下的利润全部在美国人的兜里。（本文根据作者在北京大学中国经济研究中心的演讲录音整理而成，我对此有精简）</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0;"><font size="3"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">高盛继续对低估的人民币币值和无风险资产的低利率现状保持浓厚兴趣。他们的报告预测：</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">年中国央行将两次实施升息措施，每次</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">27</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">个基点，同时人民币将升值</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5.7%,</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">而在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">年中国将加息</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">27</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">个基点，人民币再次升值</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5.3%</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">。｛来源：</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">12-05</font></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\';">上海证券报｝</span></font></p><p></p>页:
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