[原创]把酒问秋风：生育何由不能计划？
<p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">生育何由不能</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">？</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br/></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">章星球</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><br/></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">近读学者秋风《生育可以计划吗？》等四篇关于生育政策的文章，对其</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">放松现有的一胎化政策，适度放开生育</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">的主张深表支持，但对他的一些观点却有不同意见，尤其不能同意他对从理论上把计划生育与计划经济完全等同。虽然我支持放松控制标准，但不能同意秋风放松控制标准的理论依据，因为他的理论推导是要指向生育的完全自由甚至于“人多力量大”的逻辑。而我则主张坚持人口控制但尽量将计划生育导向台湾式</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">家庭计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">其一，计划经济问题不是出在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">而在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">垄断</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">。秋风文中提到，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">大凡四十岁以上的人，对于计划经济都有或多或少的记忆。有人告诉并且教育公众说，市场天然地会导致生产与消费的混乱，所以，应当对经济活动进行计划，由政府安排企业生产什么，雇佣什么样的人，从哪儿进货，向谁出售产品</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">……</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">这是一种</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">有计划的混乱</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">。今天，已经很难想像一个企业不能</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">有计划地生产什么、雇什么样的人、从哪儿进货、向谁出售产品</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">，所谓</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划经济</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">其实是政府职能过度扩张变成一家大的企业包揽了这些计划。即使在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划经济</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">时代，市场也并没有真正消失，只是政府依托强制暴力成为了商品唯一卖家和人力资源的唯一买家。因为是商品的唯一卖家，没有竞争所以商品质量总是短缺而质量低下，因为是劳动力的唯一买家，所以民众要挤破后门找工作觅铁饭碗，工资水平却可以无限压低。市场经济仅仅证明，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">要让众多企业独立自主地去做，最后让市场来判断谁的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">做得好，而不能让政府一家包揽。同理计划生育的改革方向也不应该是放弃计划（人口控制），而应该取缔行政强制手段，以适度上限的法律约束和观念文化引导，让家庭自己去计划。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">秋风的意思，计划生育与计划经济的内在逻辑是相同的，所以他认为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">经济不可能、因而也就不应当由一个中心自上而下地进行计划。这个命题，在相当大程度上可以适用于社会领域，包括人口问题。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">，他似乎没有注意到这样一个事实：在计划经济时代，恰恰人口是没有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">而是完全</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">放任自由</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">地生产的，反过来又恰恰是改革开放后，在商品生产逐步开放的同时，对人的生产却反而开始予以限制。按照秋风对计划经济的上述理解，难道中国的改革开放格局竟然是在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">人</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">的生产从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">市场经济</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">倒退到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划经济</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">，而</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">物</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">的生产则从计划经济前进到市场经济？</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">我未打算给已成专用语的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划经济</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">再创一名词以令其</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">名符其实</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">，但可以尝试换个角度来理解它，即把计划经济看作市场经济的一个特例，估且曰</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">政府独家强制垄断型市场经济</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">。如果我们这样来理解计划经济，就可以明白市场的力量从来没有消失，只是像一个美女被换了名姓又遭强权扭曲、变形、涂抹修理得让秋风认不出来而已，但是其实她始终死不了，即使在被压缩变形到最厉害的时候也仍在用她看不见的手在发力，一点一点地修正着历史的车轮。所以我们今天能享受市场经济的种种好处，从本质上看仍是这个被扭曲变形的市场的功劳。恰恰如此来理解计划经济的本质才更能证明秋风的命题“经济不可能、因而也就不应当由一个中心自上而下地进行计划”。“计划经济”既“不可能”，则定义为市场经济被扭曲变形的一个特例当然是合理的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">而如果我们抛开</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">与否，把所谓计划经济仍看作市场经济的一个特例，即政府在市场上是商品的唯一卖家和人力资源的唯一买家，政府垄断实质就是有暴力强制手段依托的市场垄断的极端，就较容易理解上述</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">悖论</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">了。恰恰可以从市场供求关系来理解，人越多劳务市场竞争越激烈越有利于政府这家巨无霸企业降低经营成本。所以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">人多力量大</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">的一个隐含逻辑就是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">人多价便宜</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划经济</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">时代政府不计划人的生产，仍然是政府的趋利动机和市场这只看不见的手在无形中发挥作用。计划经济不是没有市场，而是市场上缺少足够的买家和卖家。计划经济下的政府兼具经济管理和社会管理职能，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">人多</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">合乎政府这个人力资源买家降低人力成本的利益，但人太多却又因市场没有其它买家而造成社会问题让政府这个唯一买家无法消受。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">秋风说</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">经济不可能、因而也就不应当由一个中心自上而下地进行计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">。这个命题，可以适用于曾经的计划经济，却不能适用于中国现有计划生育制度，原因就在于物的生产可以让众多企业去计划，而人的生产企业不会去</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">，所以只能由政府</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> <span lang="EN-US">“</span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”——</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">实际上也不是真正去代替每个家庭做计划，只是提供一个政策限制而已。计划生育仅仅提供限制标准，也只对超出限制标准者实施惩罚，这和市场经济中政府对生产领域设定的各种限制标准内在逻辑是统一的。只不过由于中国儒家文化的强大惯性导致的执行难度与专制政体的粗暴本质，引发了种种问题。显然这种难度已随着人们的观念改变而大幅下降。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">如果我们允许市场经济中的政府拥有如下职能：无论人的生产还是物的生产，任何一种产品的供给如果大大超过市场需求，就可以对之进行适度的限制（例如香烟的大量种植导致粮食危机）；反之如果其供给远不能满足需求，则予以鼓励（如加拿大奖励生育）；那么我们就可以把改革开放过程中对物的生产的开放与对人的生产的控制都视为中国由计划经济向市场经济改革的合理选择。同理，今天我们主张放松管制，也不用上升到彻底消除计划经济残留甚至如秋风所说的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">范式变革</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">这一理论高度，而只需要从人力资源不能满足市场需求这一逻辑出发就足以推导出放弃一胎制的理由。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">或许问题是出在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划生育</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">这个词上吧，似乎带着计划经济时代的痕迹。然而如果我们把垄断和自由看作所谓计划经济与市场经济的本质区别的话，从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划生育</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">实施过程来看，和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划经济</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">只有公有或集体企业可以生产产品不同，人的生产其供给主体数以亿万计，不存在任何垄断。而且计划生育也只对超过限制标准的人口生产进行一些经济上的惩罚，并没有具体计划谁来生、怎么生等等。计划生育也没有把人分为三六九等，比如官家可以多生几个，富人可以生几个，穷人生几个，甚至可以说是改革开放以来实施得最为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">平等</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">的一项政策。归根结底，计划生育并没有真正的计划，而只是人口控制。对于经济条件好交得起罚款的人，生了也就生了，多交些钱，也合乎现代市场经济国家社会转移支出原理。只有对既交不起罚款又要超生的人，才出现过一些不太人道的制裁，而且新政后也大有改观，现在上房揭瓦捆绑孕妇的工作方式还是少见了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">即使在市场经济，人口控制也是永远必要的，马尔萨斯是资本主义世界的，马寅初学的也是西方经济学。男人随时准备着几十亿精子，女人也每月要产卵子，据传成吉思汗曾留下无数子孙，以致中亚</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">8%</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">的人口是天之骄子的后代（联合晚报</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">2004-06-14)</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">。秋风把人的生产拿来与商品的生产相比，然而就生产能力而言，人和同样作为动物的蟑螂、兔子、以及曾在澳大利亚造成生态灾难的老鼠和猫有更多的共性。正是因为人口几于无限的生产能力，才使得商品的生产相对于人言而言永远是稀缺的。因此，控制人口，是市场经济永恒的主题，西方市场经济社会没有计划生育政策也未导致人口爆炸，只不过是达致人口控制的手段不同。西方更多是文化与市场因素起到了调控作用，而中国则是单纯文化与市场因素不能达到控制目标不得不以行政手段来补充。而且恰恰是秋风推崇的儒家文化传统不利于市场调节，假如实施和加拿大完全相同的生育福利制度，由于文化因素的差异，中国难保不出现人口爆炸。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">市场经济也需要控制人口，所以不同的市场经济国家在人口问题上或放任自由或行政限制或福利奖励，作法并不一样。同理中国的人口控制，从最多只准生一胎到只准生两胎或者哪一天可以到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">8</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">胎</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">10</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">胎，甚至有一天也象加拿大一样行奖励制度，都不是违背市场经济的做法，都不能证明人口不需要控制。所幸的是秋风虽然在理论上提出很多反对政府控制人口的理由，在具体建议上并没有主张生育完全自由放任，而只谨慎地主张放宽控制标准。所以本文反对的也不是秋风这一最终合乎人口控制基本逻辑的政策主张，而是他那可能导致</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">范式变革</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">的理论观点，因为只能调整控制目标，而不能改变控制原则。因为按照那样的理论，就是完全不要人口控制，回到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">人多力量大</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">的老路上去。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">秋风非常乐观地以一种上一代人十分熟悉的声音说，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">不要怕人多，从来不是社会养活了人，而是人养活了世界，一个理由是人是有创造性的，在人的创造性面前，世界上的资源并不稀缺</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">。我不怀疑人具有巨大的创造性</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">——</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">虽然我怀疑目前的文化体制释放人的创造性的能力。然而秋风似乎忘了，一个政府的经济和社会决策是不能以抽象的人的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">创造性</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">为依据的，而要等到这</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">创造性</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">变成可以被理解的科学知识，再到变成具有应用价值的技术，再到转化为实实在在的市场供给能力。秋风又说，</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">假如人的创造性不被抑制，而市场机制能够正常发挥作用，则任何一种资源尽管永远是稀缺的，却并不会出现严重匮乏、以至于导致无法承载人口的问题。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">然而，政策可以</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">假如</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">为依据吗？</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">秋风过度夸大了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">独生子女政策给家庭生活、社会文化带来的负面后果</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">、</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> “</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">人们对七零后、八零后各代的种种议论，都很自然地会提到独生子女</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">，却没有看到计划生育同时也为中国的社会文化更新提供了机会和动力。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">在儒家多子多福，不孝有三无后为大的文化观念下，传统的中国人，很大程度上不是为自己而活，而成了人口繁殖链条上的一个工具。父母对成年儿女最关心的不是他们的职业、心理健康状况、自我培训计划、过得是否开心，而是他们什么时候结婚育子，他们与儿女普遍缺少心灵交流，所以他们对儿女的关心从儿女性成熟开始就转向了再下一代。我的看法从小接受了这种传统文化的中国人是无法完全靠市场机制来实现人口控制的。但是这一切却可能在独生子女时代发生根本变化，越来越多的人开始以自我为中心，因为独生子女物质生活的相对优越性，使他们对自身生活质量有超过上代人的要求，加上经济条件的制约，他们不会愿意生太多孩子而降低生活质量。独生子女对儒家多子多福这一强势文化的冲击可谓致命性的。我个人欣赏以自我为中心、只把养育子女当做人生附带责任的生活观，因此，在价值判断上，我支持人口控制对儒家伦理的这一冲击，如果这一冲击能实现社会文化的更新，将使未来人口控制完全由市场调节成为可能。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">秋风还担心独生子女没有兄弟姐妹一起玩，会造成种种心理缺陷，这大概勉强算得上一种负面后果。但如果换个角度来看，中国人以家族为本位的社交圈相比于西方，难道不是一种落后吗？独生子女意味着中国人再也不能固守在那个封闭的家族式社交中，而只能走向社会，学会和陌生人交朋友，这对社会文化的进步或许更具积极意义。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">从供求关系角度来看，人口控制意味着人力资源供给减少，更少的人面对更多的就业机会，又必然意味着人的价值上升。扩大物的供给，控制人的供给，计划生育与改革开放的同步，绝非与市场经济背道而驰。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">秋风认为人有创造性，人的创造性会把有限的资源转变为无限，人是自己养活了自己，再多的人也能靠自己养活自己。既然如此，那他又担心人口控制会带来什么危机呢？担心人会养不活自己？担心较少的年轻人养不活太多的老年人？如果秋风信任中国人的创造性，就没有理由怀疑他们不能创造地解决所谓老龄化社会危机。而我有十足的信心认为，恰恰是一个老龄化社会、一个由独生子女支撑的社会，会伴随着更多的权利意识苏醒，会有更多人发出政治、经济与文化权利要求，会让一个制度上政府责任缺位与文化上社会救助意识缺位的国度学会承担这些责任，从而为这个民族积累起前所未有的制度与文化资源。计划生育，尽管有着诸多不人道故事，或许就是上世纪启动的改革开放为未来中国制度与文化更新埋下的最大伏笔。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">人口控制作为一项长期国策，个人认为就目标而言是正确的，但我同意秋风和很多学者的看法，一胎制政策已经基本达到控制目的并出现一些负面影响。所以控制目标从一胎制转为二胎制比较合理。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">如果把计划生育理解为政府对产品公共占有，以指令性计划安排生产的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划经济</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">的一种形式，则生育何曾</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">？</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">如果把计划生育理解为市场经济不可或缺的人口控制，则生育何由不能</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">“</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">计划</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">”</span><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Verdana; mso-hansi-font-family: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">？</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Verdana; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: Tahoma; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><p></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" align="left" style="BACKGROUND: #eadfc9; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; TEXT-INDENT: 18pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto; mso-pagination: widow-orphan;"><span style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-ascii-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-hansi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">计划生育与计划经济唯一相同的地方就是依托于行政强制手段，然而这是并非计划生育这一人口控制目标造成的，而是专制政体的恶果，专制政体的因素在住房医疗教育等诸多领域的市场化改革上都导致了种种弊端，但并不妨碍这些领域总体方向是去计划经济而走向市场经济。建立宪政，去民主而取专制，人口一样需要控制和计划，但计划的权力可以完全交给家庭。中国目前的计划生育之所以仍然可以看作市场经济的组成部分，就是总体上仍然是交给家庭在计划，但具体执行中伴随着专制政体的粗暴惯性而已。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-family: \'Times New Roman\'; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><p></p></span></p>[align=right][color=#000066][此贴子已经被作者于2007-3-26 15:25:40编辑过][/color][/align]
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