[转帖]深圳哪方走?
<p><font size="4"><font face="Times New Roman"> 3</font><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">16</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">日</span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">,新的《中华人民共和国企业所得税法》在十届全国人大五次会议上获得表决通过,将从</span><chsdate year="2008" day="1" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" wst="on"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2008</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">日</span></chsdate><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">起实施。这项法律在终于实现了外商投资企业与内资企业所得税制并轨的同时,也终结了被认为是经济特区的“最后一项优惠政策”。新税法颁布前后的猜测与争论,连同所有的叹息、追忆与感怀,都聚焦在特区作用最典型和集中的深圳。</span></font></p><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'"><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">“</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1995</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年,深圳已经把内外资企业的所得税统一到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">15%</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">,所以两税合并对其它一些地区的内资企业来说意味着所得税将由原来的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">33%</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">降到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">25%</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">,从而实现减税。但对于深圳特区内的企业,所得税反将由原来的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">15%</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">提高到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">25%</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">。”综合开发研究院深圳经济研究中心主<personname wst="on" productid="任曲建">任曲建</personname>博士告诉记者。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">“深圳有关方面的表态是‘这是产业升级的动力’,不当回事,但实际上情况很严重。虽然今天的外商在华投资已到了主要不是靠税收优惠政策定去留的地步,虽然深圳目前在全国独树一帜的高新技术产业恰好符合新税制的产业倾斜方向,并税对它们没有多少影响,但毕竟深圳的传统产业占了很大比重,对它们来说,增税</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10% </font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">是一个很大的负担。”深圳某资深媒体人这样认为。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">除了这些非常具体的影响,两税合并对深圳的最大震撼是在心理上,它被看做是深圳“被抛弃”趋势的延续:自</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1990</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年代以来,随着国家对外开放重点的转移,浦东新区和滨海新区的开发和形形色色的开发区、保税区、综合改革配套试验区等的出现,深圳当初享受的那些特殊政策已经普遍化,特区渐渐不“特”,而现在,连税收优惠这块作为特区的最后遮羞布也被揭下,昔日集万千宠爱于一身的盛况已成为遥远的记忆。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">深圳市市委书记李鸿忠认为,特区今日之特,在于特别能改革、特别能创新、特别能开放。胡锦涛和温家宝在深圳视察工作中也要求深圳在制度创新方面要有更大的作为,继续发挥“试验田”和“示范区”作用。但是,谈何容易?和成立之初的一无所有相比,近</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年的高速发展已经在深圳培植出强大的既得利益群体,进一步改革的难度可想而知。当多年以来形成的对特殊政策的路径依赖近乎积重难返,当改革和创新有可能变成只是挂在嘴边的一种政治正确时,深圳向何处去?</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><span lang="EN-US"><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"> </font></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">改革精神在消退?</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">在上世纪</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">80</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年代的深圳精神地图里,处处是破釜沉舟、背水一战的壮丽景象:袁庚用“晚年政治生命孤注一掷”,换来了蛇口工业区开天辟地;梁湘顶着“变天论”,短短</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年时间便让特区变了模样;李灏披肝沥胆,大胆突破计划经济体制。在那个拓荒的年代,他们摸着石头过河,他们“进不求名,退不避罪,唯民是举”。他们的试验,他们的成果,甚至他们的失误,一直是中国改革开放进程的一个极重要的参照系数。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">无疑,那是一个意气风发、勇往直前的年代,而今天的深圳,从官到民,理想主义激情的日益消退似乎是一个不争的事实。悲剧开始叩问深圳:是继续创业,还是开始享乐,是让“富贵病”、“官员病”吞掉开拓创新的才思,还是继续一往无前地探索?</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">在深圳的话语里,对进一步改革的坚持和强调是毋庸置疑的,并曾轰轰烈烈进行过“富而思源”和“富而思进”的全民教育。但现实,似乎指向着另一个答案。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">“有人说深圳现在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">这么高,财政这么宽裕,应该强调发展,强调如何有效地花钱,而不是反复强调继续改革。这种说法是一种典型的小农意识的反映,我是坚决反对的。”深圳大学经济学院教授苏东斌告诉记者。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><personname wst="on" productid="苏"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">苏</span></personname><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">老师的想法折射出很多人对深圳的普遍担心,这种担心并不仅仅是一种臆测,而是其来有自的:自</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1990</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年代以来,深圳的多项改革措施均因为既得利益者的强烈反对或流产或不了了之,既得利益者罔顾民意和政府权威的程度让人瞠目。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">深圳是全国出租车起步价最高的城市,</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2004</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">月深圳就开过出租车降价听证会,但后来此次听证会上达成的降价措施没有落实。而</span><chsdate year="2007" day="30" islunardate="False" isrocdate="False" wst="on"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2007</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">4</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">日</span></chsdate><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">刚刚结束的深圳市出租小汽车油价运价联动机制听证会,却意外地成为一个涨价会。旧的听证会将出租车当作“公共交通的重要组成部分”,新的听证报告则将其改变为“公共交通的重要补充,而非公共交通”。根据新的属性定位,出租车既然作为非公用产品,政府就有理由不去补贴它的亏损,而将油品涨价捆绑在出租车运价上,那么消费者对高运价出租车“埋单”也就是顺理成章的。由此来看,深圳出租车涨价听证会实质上已不再是一个技术性问题,而发展成为政府如何拆解垄断利润及肃清行业黑幕的现实问题。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2006</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年前三季度,深圳新房价格平均高达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">9691</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">元/平方米,同比去年前三季度高涨了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">31.9</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">%;据国家发改委和国家统计局联合公布的调查显示,当年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">~8</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">月深圳连续</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">个月房价涨幅名列全国第一。与房价居高不下相辅相成的,是深圳一些小区不时出现的“黑衣人”砍杀维权业主的事件,以及同样居高不下的物管收费。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">当然,这种情况的出现有一定的必然性。当初那些基本上来自内地的建设者,在深圳还没有自己的利益,他们或深受“文革”之苦,或是希望摆脱旧体制的束缚,改革的热情自然很高。而改革的不断推进,让大部分人都得到了好处,在这种情况下,人们是发自内心支持改革的。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">近</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">30</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年之后,那批最早的建设者有的已经离开,能留下来的多数成了所谓的成功人士或政府中高级管理者,他们已人到中年,和当年的一无所有不同,他们已从现有体制和利益架构中得到了很多,心态自然转而保守起来。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">事实上,这种现象在全国其他地方同样存在着,既得利益者以自己的组织、资源优势,或是以其话语优势,或是利用一些弱势群体利益受损之后的过激情绪,扼杀甚至挟持改革的事情屡见不鲜,但深圳的情况有所不同,深圳最初的吸引力是改革开放的氛围,以及比内地传统体制更宽松的机制和内地所无法提供的创新机会。靠改革创新起家、靠改革创新发展、靠改革创新而闻名中外的事实本身则证明,改革创新不仅仅是深圳的传统,而且还是深圳重要的政治资本。没有了这个资本,深圳将不可避免地成为一个普通的城市。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">我国的经济改革现在已经行至这样一个阶段:目前所有能涉及的经济改革空间,已几乎全被触及。要进一步推进改革,已不是单个产业部门或职能部门的事情,而是涉及比较深层次的问题,必然会碰到现行体制或制度的天花板。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">因此,如何保持改革的动力,已不是深圳独有的困惑,而是具有普遍性。显而易见,这个是不可能靠号召、呼吁或道德批评来实现的,没有外部压力,压力没有大到足够程度,既得利益者是无论如何不愿意打破现有利益格局的。在此情况下,就必须要建立一种相关利益者反复博弈、使各方利益关系均衡的机制,如新闻监督、民众政治参与、民间组织的壮大等等。如果深圳能对这个根本问题的解决提供富有想象力的答案,那它的改革“排头兵”地位将不可动摇。深圳的领导层看来也认识到这一点,所以先后表示:我们要始终站在时代前列,从全国大局出发谋划改革创新,在一些改革的重点、难点问题上率先突破,为全国的改革发展探索路子,积累经验。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">事实上,中央早已赋予了深圳特区自我发展的机制,那就是特区的授权立法——香港作为自由港的特殊性就是通过授权立法逐步建构起来的,可见这是一个十分重要的制度建设的利器——但迄今为止,包括深圳在内的五大经济特区都没有充分利用好授权立法,没有重点去构建那些异质性和特殊性制度,而是用它来制定一般性地方法规和条例。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><span lang="EN-US"><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"> </font></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">迫在眉睫的改革</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">除了上述的一些制度层面的创新,深圳目前还有一些迫在眉睫的改革领域需要突破,而这些领域的改革,在国内其他地区同样鲜有进展。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">一个很重要的领域是产业结构。过去,“三来一补”的加工业支撑了深圳的超高速发展,而现在,对中国其他城市来说,深圳与其说是一个模式,不如说是对“经济增长高于一切发展模式”的局限性的一个预兆。深圳土地面积只有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2020</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">平方公里,是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">24</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">个中心城市中唯一一个没有设县、没有腹地的大城市,土地成本以及水、电、劳动力成本都比较高。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">因此,深圳提出要告别</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">崇拜,转而看重每万元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">的能耗,要把那些低产值、高污染的企业迁出去。但迁到哪里去、怎么迁却是个问题。近日,深圳提出要在湖南衡阳、广东惠州、河源等地建设产业转移园区,鼓励和引导本地一些劳动密集型企业转移,但问题是深圳</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">70%</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">多的企业都是外向型的,必须依赖港口才能生存,迁到远离港口的地方,这些企业如何生存?况且河源还是深圳的水源地。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">近些年,深圳一直在大力鼓励高科技产业和服务业的发展。以服务业为例,它是和人打交道的,对制度和法治环境的依赖度很高。过去几年里,证监会把新公司股票上市都安排到上海证券交易所,而不放到深圳证交所。在官方的鼓励下,外国银行和金融公司也陆续落户上海。然而,虽然这只“看得见的手”如此垂青上海,上海服务业在其</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2004</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">中所占份额只有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">47.5</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">%。而在之前的两年里每年下降</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">0.5</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">个百分点。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">这种情况不唯上海、深圳独有,“过去几年所有大城市服务业占</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">的比重都在下降”,深圳经济研究中心主任曲建告诉记者。根据耶鲁大学<personname wst="on" productid="陈志武">陈志武</personname>教授的统计,</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2004</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年,中国</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">15.4</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">%来自农业,</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">51.1</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">%来自工业,</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">33.5</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">%来自服务业。而印度的服务业占</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">GDP</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">之比为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">51</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">%,美国的服务业则更是高达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">79.4</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">%。实际上,在所有人口超过</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">100</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">万的国家中,中国的服务业水平最低,位于最不发达的行列。深圳的服务业份额虽然在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">40%</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">左右,高过全国平均水平,但未来要有突破性的发展,还是会遇到制度环境的制约。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">另一个牵一发动全身的改革是外来人口的管理。深圳和北京、上海、广州等城市的一个最大的不同,就是后者有大量的本地人口,从农村涌入的农民工不会在数量比例上改变整个城市的人口结构。深圳则不一样,</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1200</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">万人里只有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">200</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">万左右有户口,有意识无意识地压低户籍人口,固然可以节省地方政府的社会福利支出,但长此以往,却给深圳的服务业发展和社会文化发展带来了重大的负面影响。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">凤凰卫视时事评论员<personname wst="on" productid="朱文晖">朱文晖</personname>博士就认为:“这些外地户籍人口长期在深圳居住,却无法根留深圳,他们往往倾向于破坏而不是维护深圳的形象。最典型的是深圳的数万出租车司机,他们每天需要向政府有关管理部门交纳大量的税费,但却无法获得深圳市民应有的身份和待遇,因此他们的心态极不平衡,深圳出租车的宰客现象在全国比较发达的城市是最恶劣的。”</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">这种隐藏于社会心理深处的无根文化,造成了弥漫于深圳的短期、浮夸、寻租现象,早期创业过程中的“孺子牛”精神大受侵蚀。同时,这种人口政策的负面影响已波及深圳第三产业发展,正如《深圳统计年鉴》指出,“户籍人口过小,严重影响住宅消费、教育消费、医疗消费、文化消费、体育消费、休闲消费客观上制约了第三产业发展。”从长远看,该政策更可能负面到影响深圳的高科技产业的创业环境、深圳作为支柱产业的文化产业的环境培育。因此,深圳在短期内必须就这个问题作重大决策。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><span lang="EN-US"><p><font face="Times New Roman" size="4"> </font></p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">还要追求特权吗?</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">深圳的成功和国家早年的特殊优惠政策是分不开的,虽然这些优惠并不是深圳一家独享,其他</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">个经济特区也有。但深圳毕竟有了试验的机会,而且在长达</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年的时间里获得了中央高层的偏爱和加持。早年,深圳引进外资牵涉“资本再次剥削中国工人”的重大原则问题,出让土地使用权更是触动了一些人对“租界”的回忆,后来又有质疑特区社会主义性质的全国性争论,在当时的政治环境下,这些指责剑剑封喉,暗藏杀机,最后都由中央高层出面才化解。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">对已经步入后特区时代的深圳,是否能摆脱对特权的路径依赖是一个至关重要的问题。一方面,深圳如果能在国家改革重心偏移的情况下,不是致力于恢复特权,而是致力于一些深层问题的解决和政治体制的革新并取得重大突破,深圳的成功才是切实可靠的;但另一方面,如果没有国家层面的制度供给、支持或默许,政治体制方面的探索很容易触礁。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">这正是中国现实的吊诡之处:理论上,人们会质疑各种优惠政策损害了公平竞争原则:在同一个政府管辖下,为什么不能同享国民待遇?但现实层面,你不得不承认,没有政策优势,很多东西根本突破不了。你要强行突破,后果会很严重。所以李鸿忠在一次讲话中,谈到改革时希望干部发挥“敢于牺牲奉献的精神”,培养“工兵”意识,就是要“探雷挖雷”,敢于“牺牲”。这样的言论,在一个制度完备定型的国家里是不可能出现的,但在中国,它们是再现实不过的东西。</span><span lang="EN-US"><p></p></span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">因此,在改革的共识已经被打破、改革的动力日益缺失的情况下,如何稳妥地推进政治制度方面的变革,解决经济基础和上层建筑日益不自洽的矛盾,更重要的是,如何赋予不同主体平等明晰的改革试验权,鼓励他们进行探索和试验,是对深圳、对改革前途的重大考验。</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'"></span></font> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'"></span></font> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">南风窗</span></font></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'"></span></font> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt;text-indent:27pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.57"><font size="4"><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'"></span></font> </p></span></font>[em05][em05][em05]页:
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