[转帖][转贴]世界金融危机:中国抛售美元,美元可能崩溃!
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin:0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">[</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">转贴</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">]</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">世界金融危机</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">:</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">中国抛售美元</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">,</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">美元可能崩溃</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">!</font></span></p><p><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">文章提交者：为</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">50</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">后呐喊</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">加帖在</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span lang="EN-US"><a href="http://club2.cat898.com/newbbs/list.asp?boardid=1"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'"><span lang="EN-US">猫眼看人</span></span></a><font face="Times New Roman"> </font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">【凯迪网络】</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> http://www.kdnet.net<br /><br /></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">英國每日電訊報</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">日報導，兩名中國共產黨研究機構的高階官員最近在接受訪問時，首度警告北京可能利用手中握有的</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">兆</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">千</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">300</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">億外匯存底當作政治武器，來反制美國國會逼迫人民幣升值的壓力。報導說，中國若要改變政策，通常會先透過智庫和學者試放風向球。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <br /><br /></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">中</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">國國營媒體把中國的外匯存底形容成「核子選項」，一旦中國真的拋售美元資產，可能在美元貨幣已經不斷走弱之際，引爆美元幣值的崩盤，進而促成美國債券殖利</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">率的飆高，進一步打擊疲弱的美國房市，更可能讓美國經濟步入衰退。估計中國的外匯存底中，超過</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">千億美元是以美國債券形式持有。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <br /><br /></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">擔任中國國務院發展研究中心金融研究所所長的夏斌上週率先發難。他說，北京的外匯存底可以成為與美國談判的籌碼，「當然，中國並不想要全球金融秩序出現任何人都不願意見到的現象」。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <br /><br /></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">至於擔任中國社會科學院世界經濟與政治研究所所長助理、兼任國際金融研究中心副主任的何帆，則在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">8</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">日更進一步表示，北京應該讓世界知道，如果中國願意，中國擁有讓美元崩盤的實力。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <br /><br /></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">何</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">帆告訴中國日報說，「中國累積了大量的美元，如此龐大的數目，其中大多是美國國庫券，對於維持美元作為儲備貨幣的地位做出了很大的貢獻。俄羅斯、瑞士和許</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">多其他國家，都已經降低他們所持有的美元資產」、「只要人民幣匯率穩定，中國不太可能跟進賣出美元。一旦人民幣快速升值，中國央行將被迫賣出美元，這樣很</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">可能導致美元的快速貶值」。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <br /><br /></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">中國學者的發言正好呼應了美國參議員、民主黨總統參選人希拉蕊的選舉策略。希拉蕊已經呼籲國會應該做出限制性立法，防止美國成為「北京、上海或東京經濟決策的人質」。希拉蕊說過，外國控制了美國</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">44</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">％的國債，導致美國十分容易受到傷害。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <br /><br /></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">分析家認為，中國學者的言論是針對美國國會而來，因為美國國會打算在秋天的會期中，針對中國經貿問題進行立法；而在美國信貸市場已經飽受次級房貸風暴打擊之際，這樣的政治威脅可能帶來非常嚴重的後果。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <br /><br /></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">美</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">國參院財政委員會所支持的一項立法草案，要求政府針對中國操控人民幣匯率，對中國進口產品施加貿易關稅報復。美國財政部長鮑爾森曾警告說，任何對中國的這</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">類制裁都只會傷害到美國，更可能引爆全球性的保護主義立法。鮑爾森在擔任高盛董事長任內成為中國通，他選擇對中國採取柔性外交作為，但他在上週訪問北京期</span><font face="Times New Roman"> </font><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">間，似乎沒有贏得中國多少的讓步。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman"> <br /><br /></font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">人民幣過去</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">年來已經升值了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">9</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">％，但對於阻止中國貿易順差的巨幅攀升毫無幫助。</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">月中國的貿易順差已經達到了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">269</font></span><span style="font-family:宋体;mso-ascii-font-family:'times new roman';mso-hansi-font-family:'times new roman'">億美元。</span></p> 谈判的筹码页:
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