[转帖] [2011.05.15]Decision time 抉择时刻: 德国走向十字路口

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Charlemagne
查理曼


Decision time
抉择时刻
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Germany continues to dither over how best to rescue the euro
德国仍然犹豫不决，思考拯救欧元的最佳对策



May 12th 2011 | from the print edition


WORKING in the bombastic Nazi-era edifice in Berlin that once housed Hermann Göring’s air ministry, then the headquarters of the Red Army and later much of East Germany’s communist government, Wolfgang Schäuble knows more than most how Germany’s democratic resurrection and reunification are bound up with European integration. But as the German finance minister wheels himself in to talk to the foreign media (he has been paralysed from the waist down since an assassination attempt in 1990), he cuts a lonely figure. A veteran of German unification, he is the leading pro-European in the cabinet. His instinctive response to the euro-zone crisis is more European integration. Germany is, after all, the euro’s principal beneficiary. But his country is ever more sceptical of the European Union and the single currency. German Europhiles feel beleaguered.

朔伊布勒（Wolfgang Schäuble） 在柏林一栋纳粹时代遗留下来的浮华建筑里办公。这里先后曾是赫尔曼．戈林的空军部，红军的总部，以及后来东德共产主义政府的政府主要部门所在地。因此，他比多数人明白：德国的复兴和统一与欧洲一体化的进程密不可分。但是当这位德国财长坐着轮椅出来接受外国媒体采访时（1990年他遭到暗杀袭击，从此腰部以下瘫痪）， 他身影显得那么落寞。他对德国统一的历程了然于心，同时也是政府内阁中主要的亲欧人士。对于欧元区爆发的危机，他本能地想到，解决之道在于欧洲的进一步融合。毕竟，德国是欧元最主要的受惠者之一。但是德国对欧盟，对单一货币，愈发怀疑。德国的亲欧派感到四面楚歌。

Ministers are torn between promises “to do whatever it takes” to defend the euro and the hostility of their voters towards serial bail-outs. The result has been a succession of erratic incremental steps, forced by events and largely driven by tactics. Germany acted to avert the imminent financial collapse of several countries, but often late and never decisively enough to resolve the crisis once and for all. Instead, a year after the rescue of Greece, then of Ireland and now of Portugal, anxiety seems to be growing.

德国的部长们左右为难，一方面已承诺“不惜一切代价”捍卫欧元，另一方面，又必须消除选民对对于一连串的纾困措施的敌意。为难之下，他们接连采取一系列让人捉摸不透，谨小慎微的措施。这是形势所逼，但主要是策略的选择。为了避免几个国家即将出现的金融崩溃，德国已经采取了行动。但是这些行动大都姗姗来迟，而且总是瞻前顾后，未能一劳永逸地解决危机。相反，从驰援希腊，到救助爱尔兰，到现在拯救葡萄牙，一年已过，焦虑似乎正在滋长。

The EU, with power spread across institutions and countries, is ill-designed to act swiftly in a crisis. Germany has to provide leadership, if only because it has the deepest pockets. But it too often seems dysfunctional, partly because of its own decentralised system and partly because being Europe’s creditor-in-chief is unpopular. These days Angela Merkel, the chancellor, may be treated in Brussels as an empress, but in Berlin she is just one of many warring nobles.

尽管欧盟的权力遍布各大机构和国家，其设计仍然存在缺陷，无法在危机来临之时，迅速采取行动。德国必须挑起大梁，因为德国的财力最为雄厚(若是仅此而已，那就好办了)。但是很多时候德国的表现似乎差强人意：部分原因在于自身权力分散的体制，此外，就在于德国成为欧洲的最大债主，不得人心。最近这些日子，总理默克尔可能在布鲁塞尔受到如女皇般的待遇，但是在柏林，她只是许多纷争倾戈的贵族之一。

Take the latest upheaval. Somebody leaked news to Der Spiegel, a German news magazine, of a secret meeting of finance ministers in Luxembourg on May 6th to discuss Greece. That was accurate. But the claim that the country was threatening to leave the euro seems to have been wrong, though it caused yet another market convulsion. Jean-Claude Juncker, prime minister of Luxembourg and chair of the euro group of finance ministers, says there was no talk of restructuring Greece’s public debt.

以最近的骚乱为例。德国新闻杂志《明镜周刊》收到消息，透露各国财政部长将于5月6日密会于卢森堡，讨论希腊事务/称各国财长将于5月6日在卢森堡就希腊问题/事务举行秘密会谈。消息属实。但是希腊威胁退出欧元区的说法似乎站不住脚，但是该消息再次引起市场骚动。由各国财政部长组成的欧元事务组主席，卢森堡首相克洛德容克称会上并没有提到要对希腊的公共债务进行重组。

But who can believe a man whose officials denied that the meeting was taking place, and who has spoken of the need for “secret, dark debates” in economic policy-making? Mr Juncker all but admitted that Greece could not pay its debts, saying it would need “a further adjustment programme”. In Berlin this week Mr Schäuble kept mum about this, to avoid feeding “speculation”, though his ministry is now looking at debt restructuring.

但是，容克的幕僚之前否认会举办这样一次会议，他自己又宣称在制定经济政策是需要进行“秘密的，不可告人的争论”，有鉴于此，他的话，有谁信？容克先生称“需要制定进一步的调整计划”，只差没有直接承认希腊无力偿还债务。在柏林，尽管财政部正在考虑债务重组，但朔伊布勒对此事三缄其口，以避免加剧外界“猜测”。

In truth it is not speculation but indecision and timidity that are at fault. Germany has made expensive loans to troubled countries, but does not like big fiscal transfers. It said the EU’s big bail-out fund would be temporary, but it is being made permanent. Money for rescues is being raised with joint guarantees, yet Germany will not accept common Eurobonds. It has resisted immediately imposing losses on bondholders, yet insists they must share the pain from 2013 and has started to discuss lengthening debt maturities despite fierce resistance from the European Central Bank. It denounces financiers for causing the crisis, but has backed arguments against Ireland burning its bank creditors.

事实上，应遭诟病的，不是外界猜测而是优柔寡断和谨小慎微。德国已向陷入困境的国家提供高息贷款，但是不愿采取大规模财政转移支付。它称欧盟巨额的纾困基金只是权宜之计，但是现在正成为一个永久的机制。援助的资金正通过共同担保的形式来募集，但是德国将不会接受共同的欧元债券。它拒绝马上将损失加在债券持有人身上，但是让他们从2013年起承担一部分损失。尽管遭到欧洲央行的强烈反对，德国已经开始讨论延长债务的偿还期限。德国还谴责金融机构是这场危机的罪魁祸首，但是对于爱尔兰惩处其银行借贷机构的做法，它又站在指摘者的一边。

More than once, Mrs Merkel has countermanded Mr Schäuble. She prevaricated over who should succeed Jean-Claude Trichet as ECB president, finally backing Italy’s Mario Draghi long after he had won over other leaders and, indeed, Mr Schäuble. Even Bild, Germany’s leading tabloid, elevated Mr Draghi as an honorary German, depicting him with a Prussian helmet. “What does Germany want?” asks an exasperated Eurocrat in Brussels. Plainly, Germany does not know. To one Berlin economist, “Germany is like an unguided missile over Europe.”

默克尔曾不止一次撤回朔伊布勒下达的政令。在欧洲央行主席特里谢接班人人选问题上，她闪烁其词，她最终宣布支持意大利央行行长马里奥•德拉吉，但是后者早已赢得其他领导人，尤其是朔伊布勒的支持。德国的主流通俗报纸《图片报》甚至将德拉吉选为德国荣誉公民，并描绘出他佩戴普鲁士头盔的样子。“德国到底意欲何为？”恼怒之下，一位欧盟官员问道。很明显，德国自己也没个谱。根据柏林一位经济学家的说法，“德国在欧洲问题上就像一枚没有方向的导弹。”

Time is not on my side
时不我待

None of this is to say that Germany is the main cause of the euro’s crisis. As much or more blame lies with those that spent irresponsibly, failed to reform in good times and were blind to property bubbles. Yet German hesitation has hindered the search for a solution. Its strategy, in so far as there is one, has followed a twin track. One has been to push others to adopt Germanic rigour through tougher fiscal rules and a “fitness programme” to make economies more competitive. This is meant to prevent a future crisis. As for today’s ills, caused by the sins of the past, the answer has often been just to play for time: to try to repair Europe’s banks, insist on deficits being trimmed and hope that growth makes the problem more manageable. EU finance ministers want to postpone the reckoning again, perhaps with new loans for Greece, stretching out repayments, reducing the interest rate or even considering a modest voluntary reprofiling of current debt.
所有这些不是说德国是欧元危机的罪魁祸首。那些挥霍无度，在繁荣时期未能改革，无视地产泡沫的国家也不能免责，或者说他们要承担更多的责任。但是德国的迟疑阻碍各方寻求解决之道。至于目前德国现有的政策，也是双管齐下。一方面，敦促他国通过更为严厉的财政政策来沿袭德国的严苛。另一方面，通过“复苏计划”来帮助经济体提升竞争力。这一政策旨在阻止未来可能出现的危机。至于当下的问题，它们是由过去的错误所导致的，其对策也只是拖延危机，争取时间：努力整顿欧洲各大银行，坚持削减赤字，并希望增长能够使问题变得可控。欧盟的财政部长们希望延迟债务结算，可能同时给予希腊新的贷款，延长偿还期限，降低利息，或者，干脆考虑对现有的债务进行小规模的自愿重组。

But time has a cost. Austerity in troubled countries is deepening recession. Markets doubt that Greece and others can repay their debts even with much more time and fresh loans. And the crisis is tearing at Europe’s political fabric. Voters in creditor countries resent endless bail-outs; in debtor countries they resent endless belt-tightening. Even Berlin may be realising that it is time for hard choices. That could mean restructuring debts, imposing losses on creditors and helping banks in danger of collapse. Or it could mean restructuring the euro area through common Eurobonds and fiscal transfers. One option crystallises losses now and raises fears of financial turmoil; the other means an open-ended commitment that risks political rejection. Neither is easy. But prolonged indecision could lead to something even more painful: break-up of the euro, which to pro-European Germans would be a repudiation of post-war history.

但是“一寸光阴一寸金”。在陷入困境的国家，紧缩政策正加剧衰退。即便是获得更多时间和新的贷款，市场对希腊和其他国家偿还债务的能力仍旧表示怀疑。当前的危机正将欧洲的政治框架逐步瓦解。债权国选民憎恨无止尽的纾困行动；而债务国选民则憎恨无止尽的财政紧缩。即便是柏林也意识到艰难抉择之时已经到来。这可能意味着重组债务，将损失加在债权人身上，帮助面临倒闭风险的银行。或者，通过共同的欧元债券和财政转移支付来对欧元区进行重组。第一种方法是在当下兑现损失，但是会引起金融震荡的担忧。另一种方法则意味着无休止的投入，从政治角度而言，可能会遭到拒绝。二者皆不易。但是优柔寡断，拖延下去将会导致更痛苦的局面：欧元区的解体。对于亲欧的德国人来说，这无异于对二战后历史的全盘否定。

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译注：欧洲的危机类似于中美危机的翻版，经济失衡。挥霍无度的希腊人大量购买德国产品，以节俭为美德的德国人则积攒起巨大的外汇储备，现在要这些平时节俭的人去救那些败家子，德国人当然不高兴。但是欧元区一旦倒下，那么欧盟数十年的心血毁于一旦，它带来的影响将是极其广泛而深远的，地缘政治格局将发生巨大变化。标普和穆迪的落井下石（希腊已经到B了），不知是出于公司的准则还是政治的阴谋，我们有理由相信，美国人对于欧盟当前焦头烂额的局面感到很开心。