[转帖] [2011.11.12] Europe's big two: The Nico & Angela show 法、德兩国较量

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http://www.ecocn.org/thread-60591-1-1.html
Europe’s big two
欧洲的两大巨头

The Nico and Angela show
法国和德国的较量

Is Europe run by France and Germany, or by Germany alone?
欧洲是由法国和德共同主宰，还是仅由德国主宰呢？

Nov 12th 2011 | from the print edition



WHEN DE GAULLE’S foreign minister asked him which officials France should dispatch to Brussels to staff the new European Commission, the general replied: “Send the most stupid.” Although these days France installs some of its best people in Brussels to watch what the EU gets up to, that condescending attitude has never entirely disappeared. If it had a choice, France would keep the commission firmly in its place and run the show with Germany as a sort of European G2, but enlargement of the EU to 27 countries got in the way. The euro crisis presents France with the best chance in decades to drag the EU back on track.

当法国的外交部长问将军应该派哪些官员去布鲁塞尔任职新的欧洲委员会时， “送最笨的去吧，”他答道。尽管最近法国让最优秀的一些人员去布鲁塞尔任命，观察欧盟做得怎么样，但他们傲慢的态度从来没有彻底地褪去。如果有其他选择的话，法国希望牢牢地将委员会由自己控制，并和德国组成欧洲G2共同管理，而不是让欧盟扩大到27个国家。欧元危机给法国带来了几十年中最好的机会，那就是将欧盟带回到正轨上。

At the same time, though, the crisis has established a new German dominance in Europe. As the continent’s biggest economy, Germany has set the terms of the various euro-zone rescues. Having largely absorbed east Germany since unification in 1990, it is looking for markets in the emerging economies. And, bit by bit, it is carving out a more assertive and independent role.

与此同时，尽管危机在欧洲已经建立了新的以德国为主导的统治。作为欧洲大陆上最大的经济国，德国已经制定了不同的拯救欧元区条款。从1990年大规模地合并东欧以后，它期待进入新兴经济地区的市场，然后，一点一点地，它让自己扮演了一个更加坚定独立的角色。

When Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, meets Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, the atmosphere can be chilly. Ms Merkel has said she thinks she is “the most boring person Mr Sarkozy has ever met”. But what matters more is the unresolved combination of France’s designs and Germany’s power. Their difficult partnership weaves yet another strand into the drama of the euro, adding to the uncertain future of the EU itself.

当法国总统，尼古拉.萨科齐遇见德国总理安格拉•默克尔，气氛就变得僵硬了。默克尔曾经说过她觉得自己是“萨科齐遇见过的最无聊的人。”但是更重要的是，关于法国的计划和德国力量的联合还没有解决。他们捉摸不定的伙伴关系，还因为欧元的介入，让欧盟的未来更加无法确定。

The blues in Berlin
德国的压力

During the euro crisis Ms Merkel has often seemed torn, refusing such things as a concessionary interest rate for Greece, only to change her mind later. That partly reflects her temperament: cautious, tactical and naturally inclined towards the middle path between standing firm and coming to the rescue. But, to be fair to Ms Merkel, it is also because Germany itself is torn.

在欧元危机中，默克尔似乎总是很苦恼，她拒绝以优惠的利率给希腊，直到后来才改变了主意。这也部分地反映了她的脾性：谨慎，有谋略的、和自然而然地倾向于在是否拯救欧元区的选择上选择中立。但是，公平地说，这也是德国自己的苦恼。

On the one hand, Germans know that their fate is still bound up with European integration, as it has been for the past 60 years. The country’s pro-European finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, says that although Germans might be sceptical of the euro, they are not Eurosceptics. Opposition parties have criticised Ms Merkel for being too reluctant to save the euro zone. They have put forward bold plans, such as Eurobonds issued jointly by the entire euro zone, combined with a leap in fiscal integration. The opposition has been rewarded with a strong performance in regional elections. By contrast, Ms Merkel’s party has suffered at the polls and her coalition partner, the more Eurosceptic Free Democratic Party, is on its knees.

另外一方面，从过去60年来，德国已经知道他们的命运和欧洲综合体息息相关。其亲欧洲的财政部长，赫尔姆特科尔说，尽管德国对欧元可能持怀疑态度，但他们并不是反对与欧盟有密切联系的人。反对党们已经指责默克尔对拯救欧元区太过于牵强。他们已经提出了大胆的计划，比如由欧元区共同发行的欧洲债券，会同时促进财政上的结合。反对党已经在地区选举中取得了优异的表现，相反地，默克尔所在的党在民意调查中变得退步，而它的同盟党，这个更加反对与欧盟有密切联系的人的自由民主党，已经被完全击败了。

Moreover, the German economy is intricately tied into the European economies around it: they are a source of parts and supplies for German industry, a place where German banks and insurers have invested their savings, and a market for German goods. A collapse of the euro or a chaotic default by a European government or bank that spread through the EU economy would be a terrible outcome for Germany.

此外，德国经济和欧洲经济体有着密不可分的联系：他们组成了德国产业的部分并是它的赞助者，同时也是德国银行和保险业投资的对象和货物销售的市场。欧元的崩溃，或者说是由欧洲政府或者银行的疏忽而造成的混乱，将会遍布欧盟经济体，给德国带来可怕的后果。

On the other hand Germans also feel indignant. They think that at the time of monetary union they were conned with the false promise that the euro and the European Central Bank would be worthy of the mighty D-mark and its guardian, the Bundesbank. These were potent symbols of German nationhood. As Helmut Kohl, chancellor at the time, told the then French president, François Mitterrand: “The D-mark is our flag. It is the foundation of our post-war reconstruction. It is the essential part of our national pride; we don’t have much else.”

另一方面，德国也同样感到很生气。他们认为在货币联盟的时候，他们被欺骗，并被给予了欧元和欧洲央行值得马克（在2002年前德国用的货币）和守护它的德国央行（这两者曾是德国国家的强有力的象征）的退出这样错误的承诺。就像曾经的总理科尔告诉法国总统弗朗索瓦.密特朗所说的：“马克是我们的旗帜。它是我们战后重建的基础，也是我们我们国家尊严的必要组成部分，我们并没有其他什么了。”

The euro is no D-mark. Day after day German television and newspapers portray Europe as a threat to German prosperity. The “no bail-out” clause, designed to ensure that governments will not be held liable for other countries’ debts, has been trampled underfoot. As the crisis has grown, the share of Germans who think the euro will be a long-term success has fallen from 78% in 2008 to 55% earlier this year. Ordinary Germans are asking if they should ship their savings to Switzerland.

欧元毕竟不是马克。日复一日，德国的电视和新闻报纸将欧洲描述成是对德国繁荣的威胁。不救援条款，是为了保证政府们免受其他国家的债务而设立的，却已经被践踏了。当危机持续发展的时候，在一部分德国人认为会一直持续较好发展的欧元已经从2008年的78%降到了之前的55%。普通的德国民众质疑是否他们要将自己的存款带到瑞士。

And, in German eyes, the ECB is no Bundesbank. When the bank proposed to buy bonds of troubled governments in the open market, two Bundesbank vigilantes objected, arguing that the policy took the ECB across the threshold from monetary to fiscal policy. Having lost the argument, they resigned. At the end of last month the Bundestag passed a non-binding resolution against the ECB’s financing the euro-zone rescue fund or continuing to buy bonds once the rescue fund can do so instead. Jörg Rocholl, dean of the ESMT business school in Berlin, talks of a “common feeling of betrayal” over the ECB.

另外，在德国人眼里，欧洲央行毕竟不是德国央行。当它提出将购买自由市场上处于困境的政府的债券时，两位德国央行的治安委员会成员反对道，认为这项政策会让欧洲央行从货币政策跨越到财政政策。在辩论失败后，他们辞职了。在上个月末，当联邦议会通过了一项并不具有约束力的决议，反对欧洲央行拯救欧元区资金或者是继续购买曾经拯救资金的债券。柏林的欧洲管理和技术学院商学院的系主任Jörg Rocholl谈论了在欧洲央行问题上“有背叛的同感”。

When Germans look at Europe’s periphery they see economies that partied when they should have been sobering up. After unification Germany put itself through economic boot camp. The unions agreed to lower pay rises. The government cut benefits, raised charges and made it harder for workers to claim disability allowances. Between 1994 and 2009 the country’s unit labour costs fell by about 20% against the rest of the EU. But the adjustment was a hard slog. Jobs went abroad, where labour was cheaper, and unemployment rose to a peak of 12.1% in 2005. That same year the Social Democrat-led government of Gerhard Schröder paid the price at the polls, bringing Ms Merkel to power.

当德国人看到欧洲外围成员国的时候，他们意识到自己应该在经济体可以分离的时候清醒点。在国家统一以后，他们让自己经历了经济上的新兵训练营。工会同意降低加薪，政府减少福利，提高费用，使工人们要求伤残津贴更加困难。在1994年到2009年之间，和欧盟其他国家比，德国的劳工成本降低了20%。但是调整是一个长期难题。因为国外劳动力更加廉价，导致在2005年的时候国内失业率上升到12.1%。就在同一年，格哈特•施罗德，社会民主党领导的政府，在选举中付出了代价，从而由默克尔开始执政。



Yet, thanks to these efforts, Germans have enjoyed world-class economic performance over the past decade (see chart 3). No wonder, then, that they resent seeing the fruits of their own self-denial being used to pay for everyone else’s self-indulgence. In any case, Germans have never quite got over the anxiety that they developed in those years of austerity. Whereas the rest of Europe looks at Germany and sees an economic powerhouse, many younger Germans doubt that they will live as well as their parents do, and fret that the social safety net will not be there when they need it.

然而，多亏了这些努力，德国人在过去十年中有着世界一流的经济表现（见图3）。毫无疑问，他们不希望看到通过他们自我牺牲取得的成就为其他所有人的放纵行为买单。无论如何，德国人都没有从在过去几年紧缩发展的焦虑中走出来。虽然欧洲其他国家视它为经济强国，很多年轻的德国人害怕他们会像父辈那样生活，担心在他们需要社会保障的时候却无法拥有。

There was a time when Germany bore its financial contributions to the EU with stoicism. Uwe Kitzinger, a British academic and former official in Brussels, called them “a form of delayed war reparations”. But now the country is making its anger felt.

曾经有段时间德国通过自己的坚忍来为欧盟的财政做贡献。一位在布鲁塞尔的前任英国官员称他们是“为延迟战争做准备的一种形式。”但是现在的德国已经感到愤怒。

“As the pivotal state in monetary union,” writes David Marsh, “Germany is becoming more self-centred but less sure-footed, more hectoring but more vulnerable.” Mr Schröder put down a marker back in 2000. At a summit in Nice he demanded that in ministerial votes on EU legislation Germany’s large population should have a bigger say than other countries. Last year the Bruegel think-tank in Brussels published an essay entitled “Why Germany Fell out of Love with Europe”. And Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg and head of the Eurogroup, in which the euro-zone’s finance ministers meet, complained that the “Germans are losing sight of the European common good.”

“在货币联合中起着关键作用，” David Marsh写道，“德国正在变得更加以自我为中心而缺少踏实稳健，更加地强势而不是脆弱。”Schröder在2000年的时候就埋下了伏笔。在尼斯的一次峰会上，他要求在欧盟立法的部长投票中，德国更多的人口应该为它带来比其他国家更多的发言权。去年，在布鲁塞尔的智囊团发表了一篇名为《为什么德国不会爱上欧洲》的文章。卢森堡首相兼欧元集团主席杰恩克劳德容克和欧元区财政部长见面，抱怨说“德国正在忽略欧洲的共同利益。”

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Moreover, the world is changing. German trade has been shifting away from the euro zone. In 1999 German exports to Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Greece totalled

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呵呵，帖子发不全。