[转帖] [2011.12.17] Prudent and proactive 中国经济决策：缓和与积极并存

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http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=61770
China’s economic decision-making
中国的经济决策

Prudent and proactive
缓和与积极并存

China unveils its economic policy for 2012, sort of
中国稍微公布了其2012年的经济政策
Dec 17th 2011 | BEIJING AND HONG KONG | from the print edition
2011年12月17日|北京 香港|打印版

AT A ceremony on December 11th to mark the anniversary of China’s admission to the World Trade Organisation a decade ago, President Hu Jintao commemorated “a new historical stage” in the country’s opening up. The next day he and fellow leaders retreated to an army-run guesthouse for a secretive three-day meeting to decide how to run China’s economy in 2012. Their gnomic conclusion: to maintain a “prudent monetary policy” and a “proactive fiscal policy” in the face of an “extremely grim and complicated” global outlook.

12月11日举行了一场典礼，纪念中国加入世贸组织十周年。胡锦涛主席作出讲话，认为这是中国对外开放进程中的“新历史阶段”。第二天，胡锦涛同其他领导人下榻在一家部队宾馆，就2012年中国经济政策进行了为期三天的秘密会晤，并得出了重要结论：面对“十分严酷而复杂的”全球经济前景，我们要保持“缓和的货币政策”和“积极的财政政策”。

The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) sets the tone for China’s economic policymaking for the next 12 months. Attended by members of the ruling Politburo, government ministers, provincial chiefs, military leaders and heads of banks and other big state-owned companies, secrecy is the watchword. No dates are officially announced in advance, nor even the location (although it is an open secret that it takes place at the heavily guarded Jingxi guesthouse in western Beijing, the Communist Party’s favourite spot for large closed-door gatherings).

每年一届的中央经济工作会议（CEWC）为明年中国的经济决策定下了基调。政治局常委、政府各部门部长、省长、军队领导、银行行长和其他大型国企领导人参加了该会议，并严格保密。官方未提前公布任何数据，甚至没有公布开会地点（尽管这已经是一个公开的秘密：该会议在保卫森严的京西宾馆召开，这是共产党最喜欢召开秘密会议的地方）。

This year’s conference, which ended on December 14th, seemed more worried about growth than about price pressures. Inflation is now receding (consumer prices rose by 4.2% in the year to November, after peaking at 6.5% in the summer); and dollar inflows are also slowing, removing one source of extra liquidity. That has allowed the government to cut the amount it tells banks to keep as reserves. Most economists expect it to carry on cutting in the year ahead. Nonetheless, the CEWC chose to describe its monetary policy with the same word (“prudent”) it used last year, when fighting inflation was the priority. It suggests the leaders will cut cautiously.

本届会议于12月14日闭幕，貌似更加关注经济增长而不是物价上涨压力。目前，通货膨胀压力正在得到缓解（截至今年11月，物价上涨4.2%，而今年夏天则达到6.5%的峰值）；美元流入速度放缓，因此而减少了一个促进额外经济流动性的因素。这样一来，政府就能削减银行储备金。大部分经济学家希望明年能够继续削减。然而，当务之急是抑制通胀，CEWC仍然将货币政策定为“缓和”，一如去年。这说明，领导者在削减方面会小心谨慎。


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The Politburo (whose 25 members, amazingly, do not include the ministers responsible for finance and commerce) also struck a hawkish note on the eve of the conference, promising to remain “unswerving” in its campaign against property-market speculation. That sent Shanghai’s stockmarket index down to its lowest level since March 2009 (see chart), with property developers suffering especially.

中央政治局有25名常委，但神奇的是，并不包括财政和商务方面的部长。会议召开前夕，政治局也表现出了强硬的一面，承诺将“坚持不懈”地对房地产市场进行监控。鉴于这一原因，上海证券交易市场指数跌至2009年3月以来的最低值（见表格），房地产开发商遭遇重创。

Despite the scale of the meetings, little detail of the discussions is revealed to the public beyond a bland description of the main points. For a more detailed explanation, ordinary Chinese have to wait until the country’s rubber-stamp legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), meets in March. The NPC will also reveal the official growth target for the year. In 2011 and the six previous years, it was 8%, a figure China’s economy typically overshoots by two percentage points or more. But 8% would be more of a stretch in 2012. Nomura, a bank, forecasts growth of only 7.9%.

尽管会议规模庞大，但讨论细节几乎完全没有曝光，公众所知的只有对几个要点的简单概括。普通中国民众想了解更详细的情况，只能等到3月份召开全国人民代表大会，也就是“橡皮图章”立法机构。全国人大还会提出明年的官方增长目标。2011年及之前的六年间，经济增长均为8%，通常，这个数字都被夸张了两个百分点或以上。不过，2012年想达到8%可能没那么容易了。日本野村银行预计可能只有7.9%。

To meet their 8% growth target in the extremely grim year of 2009, China’s leaders invited local governments to indulge every pet project, and encouraged the banks to finance them. Nothing in this year’s statement suggests they will resort to anything so dramatic. Their “proactive” fiscal policy will instead cut taxes on small firms and service industries, as well as increase spending on public services.

2009年经济局势十分严峻，为了8%的经济增长目标，中国领导鼓励各地政府上马面子工程，并且鼓励银行资助这些项目。在今年的报告中，没有内容表明明年将实行类似充满戏剧性的措施。中央将采取“积极”的财政政策，而不是减少小企业和第三产业的税收，同时将增加公共服务的支出。

For a rare glimpse into conference proceedings, those without invitations can turn to China’s former prime minister, Zhu Rongji, who retired in 2003. A series of his speeches published in September includes several delivered at CEWCs. In one, he warned that if growth were to slump, “immediate chaos” would follow. And Mr Zhu also revealed something about the venue itself. He described the Jingxi guesthouse as “resplendent and magnificent”, even as he castigated local officials for building edifices of similar glamour. At these meetings, China’s leaders are always caught between their worries about growth and their fears of excess. That’s no secret.

对该会议的进程稍作观测，便会发现没有接到会议邀请的人都会转向2003年退休的前总理朱镕基。9月份出版了他在数届CEWC上做的讲话。在其中一次讲话中，他发出警告，如果经济增长大幅度下跌，“马上会引起动荡”。朱镕基还谈了会议召开地点的问题。他认为，京西宾馆过于“壮丽辉煌”，而且他已经严厉批评各地政府修建类似规模的豪华建筑。在这几届会议中，中国领导人总是纠结于，既担心经济增长无力，又担心经济增长过快。这是人尽皆知的。

showcraft

prudent“稳健”，proactive“前瞻”。

showcraft

Their “proactive” fiscal policy will instead cut taxes on small firms and service industries, as well as increase spending on public services.

呵呵，翻译的不忍卒读啊，应该做点功课先。

取而代之的，财政部将采取“前瞻”性的财政政策，削减小微企业和第三产业的税收，同时增加公共服务支出。