[转帖] [2012.01.21]The visible hand看得见的手

showcraft

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-62728-1-1.html
Special report: State capitalism
专题报导：国家资本主义

The visible hand
看得见的手

The crisis of Western liberal capitalism has coincided with the rise of a powerful new form of state capitalism in emerging markets, says Adrian Wooldridge
Adrian Wooldridge说：“西方自由资本主义危机与新兴市场的一股新形国家资本主义势力的崛起相吻合。”
097 Special report - The visible hand.mp3 (3.58 MB, 下载次数: 2)
Jan 21st 2012 | from the print edition


BEATRICE WEBB grew up as a fervent believer in free markets and limited government. Her father was a self-made railway tycoon and her mother an ardent free-trader. One of her family’s closest friends was Herbert Spencer, the leading philosopher of Victorian liberalism. Spencer took a shine to young Beatrice and treated her to lectures on the magic of the market, the survival of the fittest and the evils of the state. But as Beatrice grew up she began to have doubts. Why should the state not intervene in the market to order children out of chimneys and into schools, or to provide sustenance for the hungry and unemployed or to rescue failing industries? In due course Beatrice became one of the leading architects of the welfare state—and a leading apologist for Soviet communism.
比阿特丽斯·韦伯（BEATRICE WEBB） 在成为一位自由市场和有限政府的热诚信仰者中长大。其父是一位白手起家的铁路大亨，其母是一位自由贸易的热衷者。其家族密友中有一位赫伯特·斯宾塞（Herbert Spencer），是最主要的维多利亚式自由主义哲学家。斯宾塞对年幼的比阿特丽斯青睐有加，授之以市场魔力、适者生存和国家之恶方面的课程。但随着比阿特丽斯的长大，她开始加疑。为什么国家不应该干预市场，以命令孩子们爬出烟囱，走进学堂？又或者为饥寒无业的人提供生计、拯救倒闭的产业？在这一过程中，比阿特丽斯开始成为一位福利国家的引领缔造者——同时也是一位苏维埃共产主义的首要拥护者。

The argument about the relative merits of the state and the market that preoccupied young Beatrice has been raging ever since. Between 1900 and 1970 the pro-statists had the wind in their sails. Governments started off by weaving social safety nets and ended up by nationalising huge chunks of the economy. Yet between 1970 and 2000 the free-marketeers made a comeback. Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher started a fashion across the West for privatising state-run industries and pruning the welfare state. The Soviet Union and its outriggers collapsed in ruins.
对于在国家和市场之间的相对优点上的，比以往更为激烈的争辩深深吸引了年幼的比阿特丽斯。在1900年到1970年之间，亲-中央集权占据上风。政府从编织各种社会安全网开始，以对经济大块大块的国有化结束。但在1970年到2000年之间，自由市场论者卷土重来。罗纳德·里根（Ronald Reagan）和玛格丽特·撒切尔（Margaret Thatcher）开始了一股横扫西方的国营产业私有化和国家去福利化的潮流。苏联和其外围盟友崩落毁灭。

The era of free-market triumphalism has come to a juddering halt, and the crisis that destroyed Lehman Brothers in 2008 is now engulfing much of the rich world. The weakest countries, such as Greece, have already been plunged into chaos. Even the mighty United States has seen the income of the average worker contract every year for the past three years. The Fraser Institute, a Canadian think-tank, which has been measuring the progress of economic freedom for the past four decades, saw its worldwide “freedom index” rise relentlessly from 5.5 (out of 10) in 1980 to 6.7 in 2007. But then it started to move backwards.
自由市场凯旋论的时代戛然而止，而2008年毁灭雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）的危机现在正侵蚀着大部分的富国世界。像希腊这样最脆弱的国家更是陷入到了一片混乱的境地。即使是强大如美国，在过去3年也出现了普通工人收入的每年减少。加拿大智库弗雷泽研究所（Fraser Institute）测量经济自由度的进程长达40年，发现它得出的世界范围内的“自由度指数”从1980年的5.5（总分为10分）逐渐的上升到2007年6.7。但那之后就开始倒退回移。

The crisis of liberal capitalism has been rendered more serious by the rise of a potent alternative: state capitalism, which tries to meld the powers of the state with the powers of capitalism. It depends on government to pick winners and promote economic growth. But it also uses capitalist tools such as listing state-owned companies on the stockmarket and embracing globalisation. Elements of state capitalism have been seen in the past, for example in the rise of Japan in the 1950s and even of Germany in the 1870s, but never before has it operated on such a scale and with such sophisticated tools.
自由主义危机因潜在替代者——国家资本主义的兴起而变得更加严重：国家资本主义寻求国家势力与资本主义势力的融合。这取决于政府挑出赢家，推动经济增长。但它同样运用诸如上市国有企业公司、接纳全球化这样的资本主义工具。国家资本主义元素在过去也见得到，比如20世纪50年代崛起时的日本，甚至还有19世纪70年代时的德国，但这之前从未以如此的规模、如此复杂的工具进行操作。

State capitalism can claim the world’s most successful big economy for its camp. Over the past 30 years China’s GDP has grown at an average rate of 9.5% a year and its international trade by 18% in volume terms. Over the past ten years its GDP has more than trebled to $11 trillion. China has taken over from Japan as the world’s second-biggest economy, and from America as the world’s biggest market for many consumer goods. The Chinese state is the biggest shareholder in the country’s 150 biggest companies and guides and goads thousands more. It shapes the overall market by managing its currency, directing money to favoured industries and working closely with Chinese companies abroad.
国家资本主义拥有世界上最成功的大经济体，将其归于自身阵营。在过去30年里，中国的国内生产总值（GDP）以每年9.5%的平均速度增长，而其国际贸易以18%的数量增长。在过去的10年，其国内生产总值（GDP）已经翻了超过两番（增加到比原来的三倍还多），达到$11 万亿美元。中国已经取代日本成为世界第二大经济体，并在许多生活消费品上取代美国成为世界最大市场。中国政府是这个国家的最大150家公司的股东，它还指导和指示着数以千计的公司。它通过汇率管理，对其偏爱产业的投资指示，与海外中国公司的紧密协作而决定整个市场。




State capitalism can also claim some of the world’s most powerful companies. The 13 biggest oil firms, which between them have a grip on more than three-quarters of the world’s oil reserves, are all state-backed. So is the world’s biggest natural-gas company, Russia’s Gazprom. But successful state firms can be found in almost any industry. China Mobile is a mobile-phone goliath with 600m customers. Saudi Basic Industries Corporation is one of the world’s most profitable chemical companies. Russia’s Sberbank is Europe’s third-largest bank by market capitalisation. Dubai Ports is the world’s third-largest ports operator. The airline Emirates is growing at 20% a year.
国家资本主义还能掌握世界上最具有力量公司。在最大的13家石油企业中，掌控超过四分之三世界石油储备的企业都有国资背景的。世界上最大的天然气公司——俄罗斯天然气工业公司（Gazprom）同样如此。而成功的国有企业都可以在近乎全部的产业中找到。中国移动（China Mobile）是一家有6亿客户的移动电话巨人。沙特基础工业公司（Saudi Basic Industries Corporation）是世界上利润最为丰厚的化学公司之一。俄罗斯的联邦储蓄银行（Sberbank）是欧洲第三大市值的银行。迪拜港（Dubai Ports）是世界第三大港口营运商。阿联酋航空（Emirates )每年增长20%。

State capitalism is on the march, overflowing with cash and emboldened by the crisis in the West. State companies make up 80% of the value of the stockmarket in China, 62% in Russia and 38% in Brazil (see chart). They accounted for one-third of the emerging world’s foreign direct investment between 2003 and 2010 and an even higher proportion of its most spectacular acquisitions, as well as a growing proportion of the very largest firms: three Chinese state-owned companies rank among the world’s ten biggest companies by revenue, against only two European ones (see chart). Add the exploits of sovereign-wealth funds to the ledger, and it begins to look as if liberal capitalism is in wholesale retreat: New York’s Chrysler Building (or 90% of it anyway) has fallen to Abu Dhabi and Manchester City football club to Qatar. The Chinese have a phrase for it: “The state advances while the private sector retreats.” This is now happening on a global scale.
国家资本主义进军前行，大把撒钱，在西方的危机中放胆作为。国营公司占到的股市市值，在中国是80%，在俄罗斯是62%，在巴西是38%（见表）。他们占据新兴世界从2003年到2010年年间的外国直接投资的三分之一，而在其占大多数的更为大手笔的并购中的比例更是为高，这就像最大型公司的增长比例：三家中国的国有企业位列世界税收最多的十家公司之内，而欧洲仅有两家（见表）。将对主权基金的利用也拿到帐目里来考量的话，看上去，好像自由资本主义在整体上的退缩已初露端倪：纽约的克莱斯勒大厦（Chrysler Building）（要么是其90%）已经落入阿布扎比（Abu Dhabi）之手，而曼城（Manchester City）足球俱乐部落入了卡塔尔（Qatar）囊中。有个中文词组说这是：“国进民退”，这事如今在全球范围内发生。



This special report will focus on the new state capitalism of the emerging world rather than the old state capitalism in Europe, because it reflects the future rather than the past. The report will look mainly at China, Russia and Brazil. The recent protests in Russia against the rigging of parliamentary elections by Vladimir Putin, the prime minister, have raised questions about the country’s political stability and, by implication, the future of state capitalism there, but for the moment nothing much seems to have changed. India will not be considered in detail because, although it has some of the world’s biggest state-owned companies, they are more likely to be leftovers of the Licence Raj rather than thrusting new national champions.

因为报导所要反映的是未来而不是过去，本专题报导将专注于新兴世界的新国家资本主义而不是欧洲旧有的国家资本主义。报导将主要侧重关注中国、俄罗斯和巴西。最近发生在俄罗斯的，对总理弗拉基米尔·普金（Vladimir Putin）操纵议会选举的抗议引发了对国家政治稳定的疑问，暗示着国家资本主义的未来。但时在此刻，尚未见到有什么是已然改变的。报告将不会对印度进行细致考量，因为尽管一些世界上最大的国有企业公司为其所有，但它们更可能是拉吉牌照（Licence Raj）的遗迹，而不是推出的新国有化的冠军。

Today’s state capitalism also represents a significant advance on its predecessors in several respects. First, it is developing on a much wider scale: China alone accounts for a fifth of the world’s population. Second, it is coming together much more quickly: China and Russia have developed their formula for state capitalism only in the past decade. And third, it has far more sophisticated tools at its disposal. The modern state is more powerful than anything that has gone before: for example, the Chinese Communist Party holds files on vast numbers of its citizens. It is also far better at using capitalist tools to achieve its desired ends. Instead of handing industries to bureaucrats or cronies, it turns them into companies run by professional managers.
今天的国家资本主义与其前身在诸多方面都呈现出显著进化。首先，得以发展的尺度更为广阔：单只中国就占有世界五分之一的人口。其次，集合的速度更快：仅在过去十年之间，中国和俄罗斯就已发展出了其国家资本主义范式。再次，所支配的工具更为复杂成熟。现代国家比消逝了的以前任何事物都更具能量：比如，中国共产党持有其公民的海量文档，它同样更胜于运用资本主义工具来达成其追求的目标。它将这些产业转化为由专业管理人员运营的公司，而不是将产业交给官僚体系或者裙带关系。

The return of history
历史的回归
This special report will cast a sceptical eye on state capitalism. It will raise doubts about the system’s ability to capitalise on its successes when it wants to innovate rather than just catch up, and to correct itself if it takes a wrong turn. Managing the system’s contradictions when the economy is growing rapidly is one thing; doing so when it hits a rough patch quite another. And state capitalism is plagued by cronyism and corruption.
本专题报导将对国家资本主义投以怀疑的眼光。报告将对体系在对其意图创新而不是仅作追赶，如果其转向错误则归正自身的成就上的资本化的能力进行质疑。管理系统的各种矛盾，在经济快速增长的时候是一回事，在经济困难的时候又完全是另一回事。裙带关系和腐败是国家资本主义的瘟疫。

But the report will also argue that state capitalism is the most formidable foe that liberal capitalism has faced so far. State capitalists are wrong to claim that they combine the best of both worlds, but they have learned how to avoid some of the pitfalls of earlier state-sponsored growth. And they are flourishing in the dynamic markets of the emerging world, which have been growing at an average of 5.5% a year against the rich world’s 1.6% over the past few years and are likely to account for half the world’s GDP by 2020.
但报告将论证国家资本主义是自由资本主义到目前为止所遇到的宿敌。国家资本主义论者错误的宣称他们对两个世界进行了最优的结合，但他们已经学会了如何避免早先的国家支撑的增长中某些陷阱。在过去数年中，相对于富国世界的每年平均增长1.6%，他们都在新兴世界活力十足的市场上以5.5%增长繁荣兴盛。而到2020年，他们很可能占到世界GDP的一半。

State capitalism increasingly looks like the coming trend. The Brazilian government has forced the departure of the boss of Vale, a mining giant, for being too independent-minded. The French government has set up a sovereign-wealth fund. The South African government is talking openly about nationalising companies and creating national champions. And young economists in the World Bank and other multilateral institutions have begun to discuss embracing a new industrial policy.
国家资本主义似乎渐然成为即将来临的潮流。巴西政府已经迫使矿业巨头瓦利（Vale）公司的老板离开，就因其主见过强。法国政府设立了一个主权财富基金。南非政府公开谈论对公司的国有化，创造出国有化的冠军。世界银行（World Bank）和其他多边机构的年青经济学家们已经开始探讨对新的产业政策的接纳。

That raises some tricky questions about the global economic system. How can you ensure a fair trading system if some companies enjoy the support, overt or covert, of a national government? How can you prevent governments from using companies as instruments of military power? And how can you prevent legitimate worries about fairness from shading into xenophobia and protectionism? Some of the biggest trade rows in recent years—for example, over the China National Offshore Oil Corporation’s attempt to buy America’s Unocal in 2005, and over Dubai Ports’ purchase of several American ports—have involved state-owned enterprises. There are likely to be many more in the future.
那引发了一些对全球经济体系尖锐的质疑。如果某些公司享受这样一种或明或暗的国家政权的支持，你怎样才能保证出一个公平的交易体系？你怎样才能预防政府不把公司当作军事力量设施使用？同样，你怎样才能阻止对排外心态和保护主义的阴影下的司法公正的担忧？近年来，某些最大型的交易——比如，2005年中国海洋石油总公司（China National Offshore Oil Corporation）对美国优尼科公司（Unocal）的尝试买入，和迪拜港（Dubai Ports）对某些美国港口的竞购——都有国有企业的卷入。在将来，这会更多。

The rise of state capitalism is also undoing many of the assumptions about the effects of globalisation. Kenichi Ohmae said the nation state was finished. Thomas Friedman argued that governments had to don the golden straitjacket of market discipline. Naomi Klein pointed out that the world’s biggest companies were bigger than many countries. And Francis Fukuyama asserted that history had ended with the triumph of democratic capitalism. Now across much of the world the state is trumping the market and autocracy is triumphing over democracy.
国家资本主义的兴起同样消解了对全球化作用的许多假想。大前研一（Kenichi Ohmae）说：“民族国家完了”。托马斯·弗里德曼（Thomas Friedman）辩称："政府必须穿上市场原则那金色的塑身衣"。那俄米·克莱茵（Naomi Klein）指出：“世上最大的公司比许多国家还大”。弗兰西斯·福山（Francis Fukuyama）断言“历史终结于对民主资本主义的完胜”。而今的世界，更多的地方是，国家战胜了市场，独裁完胜了民主。

Ian Bremmer, the president of Eurasia Group, a political-risk consultancy, claims that this is “the end of the free market” in his excellent book of that title. He exaggerates. But he is right that a striking number of governments, particularly in the emerging world, are learning how to use the market to promote political ends. The invisible hand of the market is giving way to the visible, and often authoritarian, hand of state capitalism.
欧亚集团（Eurasia Group）主席伊恩布·雷默（Ian Bremmer）是一位政治风险咨询师，他在其卓越的同题著作中宣称，这是“自由市场的终结”。他有所夸张。但是在数量惊人的政府，尤其是在新兴世界的政府，都学着如何运用市场来推进政治目的这一点上，他所言不假。市场上，看不见的手让位于看得见的手，通常是专制统治的国家资本主义的看得见的手。

from the print edition | Special report

showcraft

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Licence_Raj
Licence Raj or the Permit Raj, refers to the elaborate licenses, regulations and accompanying red tape that were required to set up and run businesses in India between 1947 and 1990.[1]
The Licence Raj was a result of India's decision to have a planned economy where all aspects of the economy are controlled by the state and licences are given to a select few. Up to 80 government agencies had to be satisfied before private companies could produce something and, if granted, the government would regulate production.[2]
Reforms since the mid-1980s have significantly reduced regulation, but Indian labour laws still prevent manufacturers from reducing their workforce without prohibitive burdens.