[转帖] [2012.01.21] Cracking up 平板电视行业正在衰退

showcraft

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-62695-1-1.html
Television-making
电视制造业

Cracking up
平板电视行业正在衰退

Flat screens are everywhere, but no one earns money making them
平板显示屏随处可见，但没有一家制造商从中获利

Jan 21st 2012 | TOKYO | from the print edition


REMEMBER the old joke about the dim tailor who makes a loss on each piece of clothing but hopes to make it up in volume? That describes the market for flat-panel screens for televisions. None of the companies that produce liquid crystal display (LCD) panels—Samsung and LG Display from South Korea, Japan’s Sharp and Panasonic, their Taiwanese rivals—makes money from it. Between 2004 and 2010 the industry suffered cumulative economic losses of $13 billion, calculates Alberto Moel of Sanford C. Bernstein, a broker.
记得那个老掉牙的笑话吗？有个笨裁缝每做一件衣服就亏一点钱，却指望多做几件以量弥补损失。这正是电视平板显示屏市场的写照。没有哪家生产液晶平板显示器（LCD）的公司（包括韩国的三星和LG、日本的夏普和松下及它们的台湾竞争对手）能从中获利。据经纪公司Alberto Moel of Sanford C. Bernstein统计，在2004年至2010年间，该行业的总亏损达一百三十亿美元。

It is not because people hate their products. The world’s couch potatoes spent $115 billion on 220m flat-panel televisions last year. Many more displays—some 2.7 billion screens worth $110 billion—went into smartphones, tablets, gaming gadgets and the like, according to DisplaySearch, which measures such things. Yet profits for screenmakers are nowhere to be seen.
原因并非人们不喜欢它们的产品。去年，全球的电视迷总共花费一千一百五十亿美元购买了两亿两千万台平板电视。据统计此类数据的显像资讯管理顾问公司的调查，更多的平板显示屏（约二十七亿个，总值一千一百亿美元）被用在了智能手机、平板电脑、小型游戏机及类似产品中。但是，显示器制造商却完全无利可图。

There are several reasons for this. First, today’s products are tough to differentiate between: all are good, cheap and do the same thing. Second, many suppliers expanded capacity in recent years, creating a glut. Third, hard times in rich countries mean that fewer people will splurge on new televisions even if they are cheap.
导致这种局面的原因有几个。首先，如今的产品质量都很好、都很便宜、功能也一样，故难分高下。其次，近年来许多供应商扩大生产，以致供过于求。其三，发达国家的经济不景气意味着会砸钱买新电视的人更少了，尽管它们价格低廉。

The price of LCD panels fell by 80% between 2004 and 2008, while the manufacturing costs declined by 50% (see chart). So margins dwindled to approximately nothing. Some suppliers had no choice but to sell their panels at a loss.
2004年至2008年间，LCD平板的价格下跌了80%，而其生产成本仅下降了50%（见图表）。所以LCD平板的利润几乎下跌至零。一些供应商别无选择，只能做赔本买卖。

Clever accounting hid the damage for a while. Panel-makers with their own television brands, such as Samsung and Sharp, covered their panel losses with profits from the finished article. Yet slow sales in 2011 mean that even televisions may fall into the red. For firms that only supply screens, such as Chimei Innolux and AU Optronics, the pain may be as long and excruciating as an Oliver Stone film.
巧妙的会计手法一度掩盖了这种亏损。旗下有电视品牌的平板制造商（如三星、夏普）曾用平板电视的利润来弥补平板显示屏的亏损。但2011年的滞销说明，即便是平板电视也可能会亏损。对于那些只生产显示屏的公司而言，如奇美电子和台湾友达光电公司，这个烦恼就像奥利弗•斯通的电影一样漫长而又折磨人。

No one has a clue what to do. Firms have tried to raise the value of the sets themselves, by increasing the screen size and improving the image quality, to no avail. They have added interactive features such as Google TV or Sony’s online services, but sofa spuds snub them.
该怎么办？谁也没有头绪。各公司已尝试通过增大屏幕尺寸及改善图象质量来提高产品本身的价值，但却徒劳无功。它们也加入了一些互动功能，如谷歌电视或索尼的在线服务，但电视迷们都不买帐。

LCDs are hurting the world’s biggest consumer-electronics firms. Sony may lose money on its television businesses in 2011 for its eighth consecutive year. In November it halved a previous sales forecast to 20m televisions. This might be a good thing: Sony loses $80 on every set it sells. Panasonic expects its television unit to be unprofitable for its fourth year running and is consolidating factories, shuttering operations and sacking people. Even Samsung, the biggest producer, has posted three quarters of losses on panel manufacturing this financial year. Sharp has converted two factories to make small LCD panels for smartphones and iPads. Smaller panels remain profitable, for now.
全球最大的数家电子产品公司也备受LCD的打击。2011年，索尼的电视业务可能连续第八年亏损。11月，索尼将之前的电视销量预测减半至两千万台。这或许是件好事：因为索尼每出售一台电视就亏损八十美元。松下预计今年会是其电视部门连续第四年亏损，因此正在合并工厂、停业及裁员。即使是最大的生产商三星也宣布其平板生产业务在本财年中有三个季度处于亏损状态。夏普已将两家工厂转为生产用于智能手机及iPad的小型LCD平板。目前，较小型的平板显示屏仍是有利可图的。

Televisions are becoming like air tickets or long-distance phone calls. Everyone loves them. But because so many firms offer them, hardly any can turn a profit. To make matters worse, new Chinese factories may come onstream in 2012, depressing prices even further.
如今电视越来越像飞机票或长途电话了。所有人都喜欢它们，但因为有太多企业提供这种服务，所以几乎没有一家能够获利。火上浇油的是，中国的新工厂可能将会在2012年投产，这会将平板电视的价格压得更低。

from the print edition | Business

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