[转帖] [2012.02.28]China and the World Bank世界银行：中国2030年展望

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http://www.ecocn.org/thread-64087-1-1.html
China and the World Bank中国和世界银行
2030 vision 2030年展望
Feb 28th 2012, 15:46 by J.M. | BEIJING

CHINA’S economic reforms have seen few breakthroughs in the past few years, or so the analysts tend to think. As the country prepares for big changes due in its top leadership after a Communist Party congress late this year, senior officials are becoming even less inclined than usual to take risks that might damage their careers. And with the economy still growing rapidly, despite the rest of the world’s problems, many of them see no urgent need for change.

分析人士倾向于这么一个观点，中国的经济改革在过去的数年中停滞不前。今年年底召开的党代会即将产生新一届领导人，相比平常，这个时候高级官员们不愿冒政治风险采取改革措施。尽管世界其他地区经济形势严峻，但中国的经济仍在持续快速增长，官员们也普遍缺乏改革的急迫性。

The World Bank thinks differently. In a 468-page report, “China 2030”, it has set out a huge range of policy measures it says are needed in order to prevent the country from eventually falling into a “middle-income trap” of much slower growth. Its suggestions range from weakening the grip of state-owned enterprises to letting the market play a bigger role in the setting of interest rates. Such ideas have been aired by others before, but World Bank officials suggest there is a chance their report could help nudge China into action.  

但是世界银行对此持不同观点，在其发布的长达468页的报告《中国2030》中，它指出，为了避免中国最终滑落到“中等收入陷阱”导致低增长，中国需采取一系列的改革措施。报告提出的建议，既包括降低国有企业对经济的控制力，也提出要让市场在利率水平的确定中发挥更大的作用。虽然这些建议之前也被提出过，但世行官员认为他们的这个报告不失一次督促中国开始付诸行动的好机会。

It will certainly be widely noted in China. Unlike the bank’s last report of this kind (“China 2020”, published in 1997), this one was co-authored with a government think-tank, the Development Research Centre (DRC) of the State Council. The DRC is an influential organisation which supplies the government with policy advice. The finance ministry was also involved. A deputy prime minister, Li Keqiang, who is expected to take over as prime minister from Wen Jiabao next year, is thought to have played an active role in arranging this co-operation between officialdom and the bank.

与之前的报告不同（《中国2020》，1997年发布），这个报告将能在中国引起广泛注意，因为这个报告是由中国政府智库国务院发展研究中心（DRC，向中国政府提供政策研究最有影响力的组织）和世界银行共同起草的，财政部也参与了编写工作。据外界猜测，现任副总理李克强（被认为将在明年接替温家宝总理）在本报告编写过程中，在世界银行和政府机构之间做了大量的协调工作。

Having the DRC’s name on the document gives China’s reformers cover. The World Bank is viewed with suspicion by hardliners, who see it as a meddler in the affairs of developing countries and a purveyor of ideas that could undermine party rule in China. With a semi-official stamp of approval on it, the report will be less easy for conservatives to dismiss as part of a Western plot. In turn, it’s believed, the DRC used the World Bank as cover in its discussions with foot-dragging bureaucrats (“Don’t blame us for these proposals, blame the bank”). At times, behind closed doors, the DRC argued for even bolder reforms than the bank itself was suggesting.

国务院发展研究中心在文件上的署名给中国的改革者们提供了挡箭牌。顽固派对世界银行持怀疑态度，他们认为世界银行喜欢干预发展中国家内部事务、向它们兜售思想，这可能会破坏中国的政党政治。有半官方机构（国务院发展研究中心DRC）的署名，使得该报告不太容易被保守派批驳为西方国家阴谋的一部分。而反过来，国务院发展研究中心（DRC）在与一些拖后腿的官僚机构讨论问题时也把世界银行当做挡箭牌（“不要因这些建议而指责我们，去指责世界银行”）。有时，在紧锁的大门之内，国务院发展研究中心（DRC）所讨论的改革议题甚至比世界银行所建议的更为大胆。

The bank, however, should be prepared for disappointment. In the buildup to the party congress, a bit of reformist posturing is only to be expected. Different factions in the party want to air their agendas in order to influence the policy choices of the new leaders. A hint of this emerged in a commentary in the People’s Daily (in Chinese) on February 23rd. It said some officials wanted to keep things as they were in order to avoid criticism, but that this would eventually result in an even greater crisis. “No matter how thorough plans are, or how intelligently crafted they are, reforms will always be attacked,” it said, giving warning that mere “tinkering” with reform had been the downfall of great nations and parties.

世界银行很可能要准备好迎接失望。在党代会的议程中，几乎是看不到一点改革者的姿态的。党内各派别正大造舆论试图影响到新领导人的政策导向。人民日报（国内版）在2月23日的一篇社论透露了这点，它谈到，一些官员为免受批评而止步不前，而这将导致产生更大的危机。“无论计划得多么周全，实施得如何智慧，改革必然会招致攻击”，它警告，如果改革只是“修修补补”，那么将会使党和国家的垮台。

Also on February 23rd, details emerged of a proposal by the People’s Bank of China (long an outlier among Chinese bureaucracies for its reformist hue) for accelerating reform of capital controls with the aim of making the yuan a global reserve currency. The plan was published in the China Securities Journal (in Chinese). But despite the World Bank’s efforts to persuade the Chinese government that reform is relatively easy to manage in good times, prospects for quicker action still look dim, at least in the near term.

在2月23日，中国人民银行（长期因改革者的姿态而在中国官僚机构中处于局外人的地位）的一个建议的细节被披露，它指出应以人民币成为全球储备货币为目标，加快资本项目的改革步伐。该计划已在《中国证券周刊》（国内版）发布。尽管世界银行努力劝说中国政府现在已经是着手进行这项改革的绝好时期，但没有看到任何启动改革的措施，也未看到相关迹象。

China’s new leaders will likely take at least a few months to consolidate their power and settle in before they feel confident enough to tackle economic reforms that affect powerful vested interests, such as the bureaucracy that controls state enterprises or the ministry of commerce. (Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, describes the influence of these groups in a detailed chapter in his new book, “Sustaining China’s Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis”). Even then, it is very unlikely that those who take over leadership of the party in a few months’ time will be any stronger than their predecessors when it comes to taking on the conservatives.

中国的新领导层很可能要花上数月时间用来稳定地位和巩固权力，然后才有自信去启动那些能影响到强大的既得利益集团的经济改革措施。既得利益集团是指那些控制中央企业和商务部门的机构（华盛顿皮特森国际经济研究所的尼古拉斯·拉迪，在他的一部新书《在全球经济危机之后持续增长的中国经济》中描写了这些集团的强大影响力）。即使在之后，那些花费数月时间接班的党领导，也会变得越加保守，不太可能比他们的前任更为激进。

douniwan

林毅夫卸任世界银行副行长　新职位引猜想


　　明报报道，林毅夫在2008年2月被任命为世银首席经济学家兼副行长，成为首位在世界性金融机构担任高职的中国人士。他在世银的任期最近届满。
　　明报日前致电林毅夫创办的北京大学中国经济研究中心办公室，相关人员表示，林毅夫确定本月回北京大学工作，“休息一段时间后，继续从事科研教学工作，具体何日回京，暂时没有时间表。”
　　此外，报道引述消息说，林毅夫未来可能出任公职，担任中华全国工商联合会（全国工商联）主席。