[转帖] [Economics focus] [2012.3.10]Knickers in a twist印度棉花禁令两不讨好

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http://www.ecocn.org/thread-64486-1-1.html
Cotton exports

棉花出口

Knickers in a twist

两不讨好

India bans cotton exports—confusing everyone, including its government

印度禁止棉花出口---所有人都摸不着头脑，印政府也不例外

Mar 10th 2012 | MUMBAI | from the print edition

2012年3月10日

WHEN Mahatma Gandhi began spinning Indian cotton on a wheel in 1918, it symbolised his desire for national self-sufficiency. Too much of the fibre was exported to Japan and Britain, on exploitative terms, he felt. Almost a century on, India’s cotton industry is still integrated with global production chains. Thus a decision on March 5th by the country’s commerce ministry to ban exports sent markets around the world into a tizz. Derivative prices leapt on New York’s trading floors. Panicky Y-front makers the world over worried if their contracts were void. Excited stockbrokers in Thailand told their clients to buy the shares of polyester firms. India, after all, is the world’s second-largest exporter of cotton, after America.

1918年，圣雄甘地开始亲手纺织土布，喻以期望印度自立自强。他认为印度棉花多以极廉之价出口日本和英国，是对印度的伤害。现如今近一个世纪过去了，印度的棉花种植业仍旧整合在全球供应链上。而3月5日印度商务部禁止棉花出口的决定令全球市场困惑不已。纽交所相关衍生品的价格一飞冲天。全世界的内衣制造商们都忧心重重，担心他们的合同是否失效。兴奋的泰国证券商鼓励客户吃进涤纶公司的股票。毕竟印度是仅次于美国的全球第二大棉花出口国。

The commerce ministry seems to have been worried that short-term export commitments were more than India could comfortably meet. It feared a spike in domestic cotton prices, followed by hoarding. This would hurt India’s textiles industry, which uses cotton as a raw material, is not in the best financial health and is a huge employer. India temporarily banned cotton exports in 2010 in response to similar concerns.

印度商务部长可能是担心本国的棉花产量无法满足短期出口合约的需要。这主要是因为害怕囤积导致国内棉价暴涨。棉价暴涨必然会损害以本土棉花为原材料的国内纺织业，而印度纺织业财政状况不佳且提供大量就业。此例与2010年印度曾短期禁止棉花出口原因相似。

And there is a troubling backdrop, too. The world cotton market went nuts in 2011, with supply blips in some countries and high demand (partly from China) pushing global prices last year to their highest since the American civil war. After years of declining raw-material prices, clothes firms such as Gap announced profit warnings and saw their shares whacked. The
agricultural divisions of two big trading firms, Glencore and Noble Group, were caught with their trousers down and lost money.

此次禁令的国际背景也并不轻松。2011年，随着一些供应国减产和高需求（一部分来自中国）的推动，国际棉价升至了自美国内战以来的历史最高位，国际棉花市场着实疯狂了一把。而由于原材料价格连续多年的下跌，诸如盖璞（Gap，美国服装零售商）一类的服装企业宣布自己盈利预警并眼看着自己股价疲软。嘉能可（Glencore,全球顶级大宗商品和矿业贸易商)和来宝集团这两大贸易公司的农业部门，也因此而名利俱损。

Prices have collapsed since mid-2011, but after a roller-coaster ride everyone is jittery. China has been stockpiling a mountain of cotton, presumably to insulate its textile makers from shocks. India may in turn be worried that its own surplus is being whisked away to create a safety buffer for the Middle Kingdom. Hence the ban.

棉价从2011年中开始大跌，但一轮过山车般的行情之后人们变得神经兮兮。中国已囤积了大量的棉花，可能会使其国内纺织品商免受价格波动之苦。反过来印度可能会担心，由于自己国内棉花过剩，中国可能会收购印度棉花以对冲棉价上涨的风险。这就是此次禁令的出处吧。

A vicious circle of price rises, stockpiling and export bans does not make sense in the medium term for any commodity, whether cotton, onions or iron ore. It erodes confidence in supply chains and may dent overall production. Behaviour that may be rational for individual actors can cause chaos if everyone copies it. No one expects a nation to act for the common good, but it seems doubtful that India’s ban is even in its own narrow interests.


从中期来看，棉花、洋葱以及铁矿石之类的商品陷入涨价、囤积和禁令的恶性循环决不是什么好事。这些事情会影响对供应链的信心，也可能会降低总产量。如果市场中的每个人都效仿某个个体的极端行为同样会造成混乱。没人指望任何一个国家为了所有国家的共同利益而行动，但印度禁止棉花出口是否出于自身利益考虑让人怀疑。

Trying to keep prices low favours textile makers but is bad for farmers who grow the stuff. India’s agriculture minister says he was not consulted about the ban. Narendra Modi, the powerful chief minister of Gujarat, a state in west India, wrote to the prime minister, Manmohan Singh, that the ban was anti-farmer. Mr Singh has promised an immediate review.

压低棉花价格对纺织业有利，但损害了棉农的利益。印度农业部长声称该禁令未曾与其商讨。印度西部古吉拉特邦的最长行政长官纳伦德拉 莫迪写信状告总理辛格称禁令伤农。辛格已承诺立即调查此事。

That seems likely to repeal the ban. But there may be damage to India’s reputation as a reliable supplier. As the news of the ban came out Australia’s agriculture minister had just launched a report predicting that Australia would double its cotton exports between 2010 and 2013. His view on India’s ban? “It’s an opportunity.”
如此看来此禁令可能不会长久。然而此举却损害了印度做为可靠供货商的信誉。禁令一出，澳大利亚农业部长立即发表声明，预称澳大利亚的棉花出口量将在2010到2013年翻一倍。澳大利亚农业部长是怎样看待印度的棉花出口禁令呢？他会认为“这是个机会。”

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http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001043572/ce
2012年03月09日 07:15 AM
印度重新评估棉花出口禁令
China hits at Delhi cotton export ban
英国《金融时报》 詹姆斯•丰塔内拉-汗 新德里, 何丽 北京报道
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China, the biggest consumer of cotton, has lodged a formal protest against India’s ban on cotton exports amid signs that India is rethinking the ban that was implemented a few days ago.

全球最大的棉花消费国中国，已就印度几天之前出台的棉花出口禁令提出正式抗议。与此同时，有迹象显示，印度正在对这项禁令做出重新考虑。

Manmohan Singh, India’s prime minister, urgently requested a group of cabinet members to review the ban after the country’s agriculture minister said that the curbs on the fibre would hurt farmers.

印度总理曼莫汉•辛格(Manmohan Singh)紧急要求数位内阁成员重新评估这项禁令。此前，印度农业部长表示，棉花出口禁令有损棉农利益。

The outcome of the review would be made public today, a statement from the prime minister’s office said.

印度总理办公室的一份声明称，评估结果将于今日公布。

An official in the prime minister’s office said cabinet members were likely to lift the ban.

总理办公室的一位官员说，相关内阁成员很可能会取消这项禁令。

“There is a realistic, high chance that the ban will be lifted,” the official told the Financial Times.

该官员向英国《金融时报》表示：“确实存在取消禁令的实际可能性，而且可能性很大。”

The U-turn is, however, not certain as New Delhi balances its relationship with Beijing and the interests of its farmers with the concerns of its powerful textile industry.

不过，这一政策逆转并非板上钉钉。印度政府正在综合考虑对华关系、印度棉农利益及它对印度强大的纺织业的担心，以求寻找到平衡点。

The abrupt policy changes are adding further volatility to the cotton market after two years of sharp swings in prices.

在棉价经历了两年时间的大起大落之后，这种政策面的突变正在进一步加大棉花市场的波动性。

Cotton rose to an all-time high of more than $2 a pound last year amid a shortage in part created by an export ban by India, only to fall afterwards to less than $1 after cotton mills defaulted on contracts.

去年，供应短缺曾推动棉价涨至每磅2美元以上，创下纪录高点。当时的短缺在一定程度上就是由印度出台的一项出口禁令造成的。没想到的是，在棉纺厂纷纷对采购合同违约之后，棉价后来回落至每磅不到1美元的水平。

Cotton traders including Cargill, Noble Group and Glencore suffered big losses as a result.

包括嘉吉(Cargill)、来宝集团(Noble Group)和嘉能可(Glencore)在内的棉花贸易商由此遭受到巨大损失。

Cotton prices have risen this year after India banned exports for the second time in two years.

在印度出台两年之内的第二项出口禁令之后，棉价今年已有所上涨。

India, the second-largest producer of cotton, instituted the ban with immediate effect on March 5, in a move aimed at ensuring sufficient supply of cotton for domestic textile companies.

3月5日，印度又出台了本文开头提到的那项禁令，且立即生效实施。此举旨在保障印度国内纺织企业得到充足的棉花供应。印度是全球第二大棉花生产国。

India’s move came after China had aggressively bought bales over the past year for a government reserve as a way of supporting domestic farm prices and buffering against price volatility.

过去一年，中国大举购买棉花来建立政府储备，以求支撑国内农场棉花价格、缓冲价格波动。

By late January, China had bought as many as 5m bales of foreign cotton for the reserve which, along with its domestic purchases, made up 15 per cent of global cotton consumption in the current crop year, the US Department of Agriculture estimated.

美国农业部(USDA)估计，截至今年1月底，中国已从国外购买了多达500万包棉花来充实储备；若加上国内采购量，中国在本作物年度要占到全球棉花消费总量的15%。

译者/何黎

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印度撤销棉花出口禁令。