[转帖] [2012.07.07]Oil prices Rollercoaster原油价格如同过山车

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http://www.ecolion.cn/thread-70572-1-1.html
Oil prices
原油价格

Rollercoaster
过山车

Another leap. Where next?
油价如同过山车，下一个拐点在哪里？

Jul 7th 2012 | from the print edition

BROADLY, two factors govern the price of oil. One is actual supply and demand, the other market sentiment about the state of the world. The fundamentals change slowly; the market’s mood is more volatile. Both have sent the price careering up and down in recent weeks.

总的来说,支配油价有两个因素。其一是原油实际的供需关系，其二则取决于反映全球状况的市场情绪。从供需关系上来讲很少变化，而市场情绪却变动频繁。最近几周以来，在这两个因素的作用下，油价频频波动。



In March fears that the Iranians might do something dramatic in the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off supplies to global markets, helped to propel the price of a barrel of Brent crude to over $128 (see chart). Since then oil has sagged by 30%, to a low of $88 a barrel on June 22nd, as intensifying worries over the euro-area debt crisis and fears of a sharp slowdown for China’s economy darkened prospects for demand.

今年三月大家还担忧伊朗人可能在霍尔木兹海峡采取过激行为，切断全球的原油供应，这种担忧使得布伦特原油每桶超过128美元（见图表）。其后，原油市场对欧债危机的担忧和中国经济减速的恐慌情绪使原油需求的前景黯淡，油价一路下跌30%至88美元一桶的低位。         

The supply side also weighed on prices. For some months Saudi Arabia has been pumping oil at its fastest rate in 30 years to make up for Iranian crude lost to American and European sanctions, which officially started on July 1st. Plenty of Libyan oil is also back on the market. Oil from America’s shale fields has all but plugged the gap caused by disruptions to supplies from Syria, Yemen and South Sudan.

供给一方也对油价产生影响。连续几月以来，沙特阿拉伯以三十年来最快的速度开采石油以此来弥补欧美从七月一日起正式对伊朗实施制裁造成的原油供应短缺。利比亚的原油也源源不断地供应到国际能源市场。来自美国的页岩油弥补了叙利亚、也门和南苏丹中断供应所产生的空缺。

The emotional rollercoaster is now climbing again. On June 29th oil markets responded to the latest euro summit with undisguised, and unmerited, glee. The price of Brent crude leapt by 9%, the biggest one-day advance in three years, and has since risen to around $100 a barrel. The fundamentals and the fear factor suggest the price will remain there for a while.

市场情绪又开始趋于乐观。6月29日的原油市场对最近召开的欧盟峰会表示出了明显的过度乐观。布伦特原油价格上涨9%，创三年来单日最高涨幅，此后涨至近100美元一桶.供需原理以及市场情绪都认为油价将暂时维持在这个水平。

First, demand remains surprisingly perky even though Europe’s consumption dropped by over half a million barrels a day (b/d) in the first three months of the year. Japan’s thirst grew by 400,000 b/d (to generate electricity that nuclear power no longer supplies); Americans put more petrol in their tanks in April than they did a year ago, the first such increase for 16 months; and Chinese demand, despite a sluggish May, has grown by 2.6% in the first five months of the year compared with the same period in 2011.

首先，即使是今年前三个月欧洲对原油的消费水平每天下降了超过五十万桶，但需求仍然惊人地旺盛。日本对原油的日需求量增加了40万桶（用于提供核电无法满足的电量）；美国四月份的汽油消耗量比去年同期也有所增长，这是连续16个月以来的首次增长。尽管中国对原油的需求在五月份有所放缓，但今年头五个月与2011年同期相比，仍然增长了2.6%。

Demand is expected to strengthen in the second half of the year as a seasonal boost is buttressed by a recovery in China and the resumption of deferred infrastructure spending there. Most analysts reckon that worldwide consumption is set to grow by around 1m b/d in 2012.

由于季节性的增长得益于中国的复苏以及其重启原本延缓的基础建设开销，这都导致对原油的需求在下半年猛增。许多分析家认为2012年全世界对原油日消费量很可能增加了100万桶左右。

Second, the supply picture is looking less promising. Iranian sanctions could take more than expected out of the market—perhaps as much 1.4m b/d. The Chinese, hitherto regarded as likely to mop up the Iranian oil that no one else would buy, have joined other countries in promising to reduce imports in return for a waiver on sanctions from America. Countries like China will be obliged to take even less Iranian oil over time to continue to avoid American attention. Meanwhile, European action against Iran means that oil tankers insured by companies operating in the EU—as are nine out of ten vessels in the global fleet—and carrying Iranian oil will lose their coverage if they continue.

其次，原油输出国的前景比较黯淡。对伊朗的制裁令国际原油市场每天损失140万桶原油。这远远高出人们的预期。国际上普遍认为中国很有可能是迄今为止唯一向伊朗赎买原油的国家，但它也加入了承诺减少从伊朗进口原油的国家的行列。作为回报，美国将放弃对中国的制裁。随着时间的推移，和中国一样的国家不得不逐渐减少对伊朗进口石油以避免引起美国的注意。与此同时，欧洲人采取制裁伊朗的措施意味着那些由欧洲保险公司承保的原油运输公司－全球90%的船队都由欧洲保险公司承保－如果它们继续运输伊朗的石油那么将会失去保险。

There are signs, too, that Saudi Arabia has stanched the flow of oil a little of late, in order to prop up prices. The country’s oil minister, Ali Naimi, has said that $100 a barrel is fair. The Saudis are reckoned to need $80-85 a barrel to maintain a programme of lavish social spending designed to avoid an “Arab spring” in the kingdom. Iran, Iraq, Algeria and Venezuela rely on an oil price above $100 to keep spending on track and want the Saudis to cut production more. That they are unlikely to get their way should help to temper the market’s mood swings for a while.

也有迹象表明，沙特阿拉伯通过控制原油产量来推高油价。该国的石油大臣Ali Naimi认为油价维持在每桶100美元左右比较合适。据估计，油价需要达到80-85美元一桶沙特才能为一项旨在防止王国内出现“阿拉伯之春”的项目提供足够的资金。伊朗，伊拉克，阿尔及利亚和委内瑞拉要维持其国内收支平衡则寄希望于油价维持在每桶100美元以上，并且需要沙特减产更多。但他们不太可能得偿所愿，这应该有助于暂时缓解市场的波动形势。

from the print edition | Finance and economics