[转帖] [2012.09.15]The summer Davos blues 愁眉不展的夏季达沃斯

showcraft

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-82706-1-1.html
Schumpeter
熊彼特 (注释一)

The summer Davos blues
愁眉不展的夏季达沃斯

Global movers and shakers are worried about China
全球威名赫赫的人物为中国经济而忐忑不安
Sep 15th 2012 | from the print edition



THE World Economic Forum is a conference for optimists. Take Ashish Thakkar, a young businessman whose family fled Uganda in 1972 when Idi Amin expelled all the Asians and grabbed their shops. The Thakkars went to Britain, patiently rebuilt their fortunes and moved back to Africa in 1993. To Rwanda, as ill-luck would have it. The next year, during the genocide, they lost everything again. Most people would have given up on Africa at this point. Not Mr Thakkar. His companies now employ 7,000 people there, manning call centres and running farm projects. At the World Economic Forum in Tianjin in northern China this week, he eagerly touted Africa as a “new frontier of growth” (though he runs his empire from Dubai these days).

世界经济论坛是乐天派的聚会。以年轻的商人Ashish Thakkar为例，1972年伊迪•阿明【注释二】驱逐了所有的亚洲人并抢夺了他们的商店，于是Ashish Thakkar一家逃离乌干达。随后Thakkar夫妇来到英国，耐心赚钱，重获财富，并于1993年搬回非洲，落户卢旺达。可是厄运又一次降临，在第二年的种族屠杀中，他们再次倾家荡产。此时此刻大多数人会选择放弃非洲，但Thakkar没有。如今他在非洲的公司雇佣着7000人，负责为呼叫中心配置人员并经营农场项目。本周在中国北方城市天津举行的世界经济论坛上，他热情地自夸非洲是“经济增长的新乐土”（尽管近期他在迪拜经营自己的产业）。

For decades the great and good of business and politics have gathered every winter in Davos, a Swiss ski resort, for the World Economic Forum, where they swap ideas about “improving the state of the world” and break ankles on icy pavements. More recently the forum has spawned mini-Davoses on other continents. The most successful is the “summer Davos” held annually in China since 2007. It is a great opportunity for big cheeses from the rest of the world to get to know their Chinese peers. In Tianjin, captains of industry slurped noodles with cabinet ministers, charity bosses bent plutocratic ears and “young global leaders” partied. But the mood was unmistakably gloomy.

几十年来每个冬天商政两界的精英和优秀人才都会齐聚瑞士滑雪胜地达沃斯，参加世界经济论坛，会上他们就“改善世界的状况”交换意见，而且经常摔倒在冰雪覆盖的地面上。于是近些年来该论坛在各大洲衍生出了许多小型达沃斯论坛。最成功的当属中国从2007年开始举办的年度“夏季达沃斯”。这是来自世界其他地区的商政两界要人结识中国精英的绝好机会。在天津，实业巨头可以和内阁部长共同用餐，慈善家可以和富豪讲悄悄话，全球青年领袖也可以尽情聚会。但是论坛中忧郁的氛围显而易见。

Part of the problem is the euro crisis. But the biggest concerns are about China itself: its magnificent growth machine is slowing. Companies that had become used to double-digit GDP expansion must make do with 7.5% this year, if the official target is met. Imports in August actually fell, by 2.6% year on year. Behind closed doors, Chinese bosses fretted about bad debts and looming lay-offs. One warned of “a wave of brand elimination” in China’s car industry, as early as next year. People are accustomed to grim news from Europe; from China it is shocking.

欧债危机大家愁眉不展的原因之一，但人们最担心的却是中国自身：它气势磅礴的经济增长正在放慢脚步。7.5%的官方目标能实现就不错了，已经习惯于GDP以两位数速度增长的公司必须将就这个数字。8月的进口量也同比下降2.6%。工厂停产之后，老板们还要为坏账和近在眼前的裁员犯愁。有人发出警告，最早明年，中国的汽车也就会遭遇“自主品牌淘汰冲击波”。欧洲传来坏消息人们早就见怪不怪，但从中国传出却让人大吃一惊。

What is all the fuss about? Annual growth of 7.5% is still pretty darn good. It alarms Davos Man, for two reasons. First, with growth nugatory or negative in the rich world, firms have come to depend on surging emerging markets, especially China, to keep expanding. Second, no one knows whether Chinese statistics are true. Is growth merely shifting down a gear. Or is it heading for a crash? In a one-party state, if the central government sets growth targets, local officials may view them as commands. To what extent do they falsify the numbers to please their superiors? The answer is as clear as the Tianjin skyline on a smoggy day.

至于这么大惊小怪吗？7.5%的增长速度仍然表现不俗。它为达沃斯的精英们敲响警钟有两个原因：首先，发达国家的经济增长或徒劳无功或不增反降，众多公司不得不依赖日新月异的新兴市场扩展业务，中国市场是他们的重中之重；其次，中国的经济数据是真是假我们无从得知，经济增长仅是下了一个台阶，还是即将遭遇滑坡？在一党执政的国家，只要中央政府设定经济增长目标，地方官员就要当成命令。为了取悦中央政府，他们在何种程度上粉饰了经济数据？答案就像大雾天气里天津的地平线一样模糊不清。

Consider one indicator: electricity output. As Chinese statistics go, this is a fairly reliable one. Only a few companies generate electric power, and it can be metered in a way that dodgy cash transactions cannot. So here’s the bad news: in June China’s electricity output did not grow at all. In the two months before that, it grew by a feeble 2.7% and 0.7% respectively, year on year. Over the same period, industrial value-added was growing at a cracking 9%, said the statistics. “Is it really possible for a manufacturing-heavy economy like China’s to grow at a decent pace when electricity is not?” asks Nate Taplin of GK Dragonomics, a research firm, in a paper called “The Electricity Conundrum, Revisited”.

有一个指标可以衡量：电力产能。中国对于电能的统计数据还是相当靠谱的。只有少数几家公司生产电能，而且电能的测算方法也不像现金交易一样扑朔迷离。统计结果令人失望：6月中国的电能产出没有任何增长，4月和5月分别同比微弱增长2.7%和0.7%。统计学家指出，在同一时期，工业增加值却凯歌高奏，增长速度高达9%。龙州经济调研公司的Nate Taplin在一篇名为《再次探讨电力难题》的论文中发出了这样的疑问：在电力不足的情况下，像中国一样的制造业密集型经济真的有可能保持较快的增长速度吗？

The numbers might be accurate. Mr Taplin notes that China’s heavy industries, such as steel, cement, and chemicals, use lots of power but generate only meagre profits. So the gap between electricity growth and industrial value-added “is not in itself enough evidence for large-scale data manipulation.” But the fact that serious economists are even asking this question points to a worrying truth: no other important country is as murky as China.

统计数据有可能是准确的。Taplin提到了中国的重工业，比如钢铁、水泥和化学等工业，它们消耗大量能源却只能带来微薄的利润。因此电能增长和工业增加值之间的缺口“无法证明大范围的数据操纵确有其事”。 但是很多严肃认真的经济学家也在追问这个问题，这种情况揭示了一个令人担忧的事实：其他经济大国的数据可不像中国一样扑朔迷离。

Foreigners have always been mystified by it, of course. Often this is simply because they haven’t done their homework. Late one night this week, your columnist met a young global leader who, after a happy drinking session, had wound up outside the wrong hotel. He had no Chinese cash and, speaking no Chinese, couldn’t make the taxi driver take him to a cash machine. Schumpeter paid his fare.

外国人对中国的统计数据困惑不解也很正常。通常情况下原因在于他们没有做好充足的准备。上周某个夜晚，一位专栏作家碰到了全球青年领袖中的一员，欢乐的酒会结束之后，走错宾馆并被拒之门外。他没有人民币，也不会讲汉语，无法让出租车司机将他送到提款机附近。最后熊彼特为他付了车费。

Out of sight
遥遥无期

The real problem with China is not only that it is difficult for outsiders to understand. It is that it is difficult for locals, too. The big news story this week concerned Xi Jinping, the man who is set to become China’s leader in a few weeks. He has not been seen in public since September 1st. He cancelled meetings with Hillary Clinton and Singapore’s prime minister, citing back pain. Rumours are swirling that something is amiss (see Banyan). The businessfolk at summer Davos would like to know what is going on. Yet when Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, addressed the forum on September 11th, he didn’t mention the subject and took no questions from the floor.

中国真正的问题并不仅仅在于外国人难以理解，就连中国人都无法理解。本周有一条关于习近平的重大新闻，他将在几周之内成为中国的新一代领导人。但从9月1日开始他就未在公共场合露面，他还以背疼为理由取消了与希拉里和新加坡总理的会晤。小道消息传言其中肯定有问题（http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?m ... #pid560760pid560760）。达沃斯论坛上的商业精英们也好奇这是怎么回事。但是9月11日温家宝总理在论坛上致辞时没有提到这个话题，也不接受与会者提问。

The free flow of information fuels progress. Companies listen to their customers’ complaints in order to improve their products. Politicians in democracies listen to voters’ complaints and strain mightily to appease them. In China, by contrast, the most important grumbles are voiced only in private. Why, asked one young, foreign-educated entrepreneur, is China ruled by old men rather than laws? Why are Chinese people not allowed to choose between political parties? Why do officials with modest salaries wear such expensive watches?

信息自由通畅才能推动进步，公司要听取消费者的不满才能改善自己的产品，民主国家的领导人应该接受投票者的意见，并不遗余力地满足他们的要求。但中国的情况恰好相反，最关键的不满只能私下交流。留学归来的年轻企业家疑惑重重，难道中国是人治而不是法治吗？为什么中国人民无权对政党进行选择，为什么俸禄平平的官员能成为“表哥”？

As long as living standards keep rising, China will probably remain stable. The incredible growth engine will keep running, albeit at a slower pace, for years to come. The capitalists gathered in Tianjin salivate at the prospect of pushing beyond China’s richer coastal provinces and into the hinterland, where hundreds of millions of new consumers would love to buy a fridge and fancy  food to put in it. They fear, though, that if growth stalls, all bets are off. And they worry that they won’t see the crash coming.

只要中国人民的生活水平继续上升，中国保持稳定就没有问题。尽管步伐放慢，但是经济增长引擎仍会以惊人的速度运转。齐聚天津的资本家如饥似渴地想把自己的业务从富有的沿海省份扩展到内地，那里有亿万新增消费者愿意购买冰箱，还要购买花俏昂贵的食物把冰箱填满。不过他们也担心，如果中国的经济增长止步不前，那他们的如意算盘就白打了。而且他们也担心内地市场开放耗时过长，自己等不到那一天。

注释一：熊彼特（美籍奥匈帝国经济学家，当代资产阶级经济学代表人物之一）
注释二：乌干达前总统。行伍出身。历任各级军职，1968年集国家军权于一身。1971年发动军事政变，推翻米尔顿•奥博特政权。1976年任终身总统。任职期间驱逐8万名亚洲人出境，屠杀和迫害国内的阿乔利族、兰吉族和其他部族达10～30万人。1979年乌干达民族主义者在坦桑尼亚的支持下，进行乌坦战争推翻了阿明政府。阿明逃亡外国，后隐居沙特阿拉伯。