[转帖] [2012.12.15] An understated recovery 低调的复苏

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http://www.ecocn.org/thread-175289-1-1.html
【导读】：新一届的中央领导不仅在领导干部工作作风上提出新要求，对中国经济未来发展也提出新展望，中国经济能否避免“硬着陆”而重新恢复强劲增长呢？

The economy
中国经济

An understated recovery
低调的复苏

Although the economy is on the mend, lingering worries remain
尽管经济呈现复苏态势，中国仍然不能掉以轻心

Dec 15th 2012 | SHENZHEN | from the print edition



EARLIER this month, the Politburo announced some welcome changes in leadership etiquette. It said China’s leaders should henceforth go about their business with a minimum of fuss and fanfare. They should travel across the country without suffering ostentatious ceremonies on their arrival or inflicting long-winded speeches on their hosts.

本月月初，中央政治局宣布将改进领导人工作作风，表示中国领导人在今后工作中，必须简化礼仪、轻车简从，同时，他们在今后出席活动时，不再有盛大的欢迎仪式和冗长的领导发言。

The Politburo’s new pointers seem in keeping with its approach to economic policy. This weekend it is expected to convene the Central Economic Work Conference, an annual three-day meeting that sets the tone for economic policymaking in the year ahead. Xi Jinping, the party’s new boss, has already made the party line clear: fiscal policy will remain “proactive” (ie, not too tight) and monetary policy “prudent” (ie, not too loose). His aim seems to be to maintain confidence without letting anyone get carried away. Mr Xi’s much-trumpeted planting of a banyan tree (above), a symbol of prosperity, in the southern export-manufacturing hub of Shenzhen on December 8th was meant to have the same effect (see article).

中央政治局新的工作方针与其经济政策保持一致。本周末，一年一度为期三天的中央经济工作会议即将召开，会议将为来年的经济决策定下基调。中央新任总书记——习近平，清晰的阐释了中国共产党的工作路线：保持积极（防止过度紧缩）的财政政策和稳健（防止过度宽松）的货币政策，目的在于防止经济过度乐观的前提下，保持市场信心。12月8日，习近平抵达南方出口制造业中心——深圳，种下一棵象征繁荣的高山榕树（见上图），媒体对此广为报道，称此举意在提振民众信心（另见文）。

This nuanced approach is in marked contrast to the party’s response to the 2008 financial crisis, when it rolled out a red carpet of stimulus spending. In 2009 infrastructure investment (measured in nominal terms) was often 50% higher than a year earlier, one of the biggest Keynesian experiments in history. This year, planners have again quickened the pace of approvals for projects, especially in railways and subways. But infrastructure investment is growing at nothing like the pace of 2009. And in the year to November, it slowed, perhaps reflecting Beijing’s reluctance to give local governments the financing they need to indulge themselves.

这些做法和共产党应对2008年金融危机时所采取的措施迥然不同。当时为了应对金融危机，中国实施大规模经济消费刺激计划，2009年，全年基础设施投资（按名目条款计算）同比增长50%，为历史上凯恩斯理论最大规模的一次应用。今年，决策者们再次加快项目审批步伐，尤其是铁路和地铁项目。不过，基础设施投资增长势头不复2009年的强劲之势，截至今年十一月的一年间，基础设施投资增长放缓，也许这反映出北京不愿向地方政府发放过多资金，以免地方官员利用这些资金寻欢作乐。

Monetary policy offers another example of China’s economic reticence. In the first seven months of the year, the central bank trimmed interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements. But it has since resisted the temptation to cut further, preferring to make ad hoc purchases of bank assets as their need for cash arises. These sporadic injections of liquidity are easier to reverse. They are “low-profile” measures, points out Louis Kuijs of the Royal Bank of Scotland. A rate cut, by comparison, would loudly advertise the central bank’s expansionary intent.

中国经济的低调复苏还体现在稳健的货币政策上。本年度前七个月，央行降低了银行利率和法定存款准备金，但是，在此之后，面对银行的现金需求，央行没有采取进一步降低利率和准备金措施，而是偏向于拨付专设资金购买银行资产。这些向银行不定期注入的资金有利于增强银行资金流动性，但是更容易导致相反结果。苏格兰皇家银行的高路易指出，这些都是微调措施。相反，大幅削减银行利率则是央行扩张性政策的典型代表。

The final example is housing. China’s leaders have repeatedly resisted calls to lift restrictions on multiple home purchases, designed to curb property speculation, despite a painful slowdown in home sales and commercial house-building. These curbs have helped to restrain house prices. Haibin Zhu of JPMorgan says the average price of a 90 square-metre (970 square-foot) flat is about 8.1 times average household incomes, compared with ten times at the end of 2010. Sales have picked up strongly. Construction may follow.

最后，中国低调的经济复苏还反映在住房市场上。尽管住房销售额和商业住宅建设数量增长步伐放缓，中国领导人始终坚持对购买多套住房采取限制政策，以抑制房产投机活动。这些限制对控制房价起到了一定的作用。摩根大通银行哈尔滨分行的朱先生表示，一套90平方米（970平方尺）住房的平均价格是家庭平均收入的8.1倍，而2010年底这一比例为10倍。随着住房销售强势回升，住房建设很有可能紧随其后。

During a difficult summer, the leadership’s understated response to China’s economic woes looked like an under-reaction. But the economy has gathered momentum in recent months. Industrial production grew by over 10% in the 12 months to November, its first double-digit growth since March (see chart). The recovery is also visible in electricity output (up by 7.9% in the same period). This had failed to grow in the 12 months to June, inspiring fears that the economy was much weaker than the official growth figures suggest.

中国经济发展在今年夏天遭遇困境，中国领导人当时对经济放缓的低调反应被视作是反应不足。不过，在最近几个月中，中国经济发展开始加速。截止至今年11月的12个月中，工业产值增加超过10%，为三月以来首次实现两位数增长（见下图）。电力输出领域也显示了经济复苏迹象，同比增长7.9个百分点，但是，截止至今年6月的12个月中，这一增长停滞不前，引发人们对经济的担心，担心中国经济比官方数据显示的还要疲软。



But two related problems still weigh on China’s manufacturers. The first is excess capacity in industries such as steel, cement and carmaking. The second is excess inventory. In the first half of the year unsold goods piled up as firms failed to find customers for their wares. Since then they have slowed production and reduced their stockpiles. Mr Zhu now sees signs that the inventory cycle may be turning. This would boost growth as firms increase output to rebuild stocks. But he cautions that the deeper problem of overcapacity will take longer to resolve.

但还有两个相关问题困扰着中国制造商，一个是在诸如钢铁、水泥和汽车制造行业中存在的产能过剩问题，另一个则是过量库存问题。今年上半年，由于消费疲软，企业积压大量库存，从那之后，企业纷纷减少生产以降低库存积压。朱先生表示，现在出现了库存循环重新运转的迹象，这将促进企业提高产量来重建库存，从而推动经济发展，但是他也提醒说产能过剩这一深层次问题，需要更长的时间才能解决。

The recovery remains stronger in heavy than in light industry. It is also stronger in China’s central and western regions than on the coast, where exporters tend to cluster. At the Canton Fair, China’s largest trade fair, held in the southern city of Guangzhou last month, export orders were 17.5% lower than a year earlier, points out Mr Kuijs. Official figures show that exports to the European Union have fallen by an astonishing 18% over the past year. Europe’s chronic failure to resolve its crisis continues to cast a pall on China’s prospects.

相较于轻工业，中国重工业的经济复苏态势仍然更为强劲。而中西部地区的经济复苏也比出口商聚集的沿海地区强劲得多。于上个月在中国南部城市——广州举行的广交会是中国最大的商品展销会，高路易指出广交会上的出口订单同比降低17.5个百分点。官方数据显示，去年中国对欧盟出口大幅降低18%，欧洲经济危机久久未能解决，中国经济前景因此而蒙上挥之不去的阴影。

As part of its new style of leadership, the Politburo says it will eschew meaningless press events and “empty talk”. If only, it must be thinking, Europe’s leaders could do the same.

中央政治局决心转变工作作风，取消虚浮的欢迎仪式，禁止空谈。但愿它能明白，欧洲领导人也能如此。