[转帖] [Buttonwood] [2013.02.02]The value of value 价值股卷土重来

showcraft

http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=180133
Buttonwood
梧桐树

The value of value
价值之所在

Fashions are changing in the stockmarket
股市的投资风格正在发生转变

Feb 2nd 2013 |From the print edition


IS IT time for a change in investment style? The general rise in stockmarkets this year may be disguising a fundamental shift within the market. “Value” stocks, in Europe at least, are starting to outperform those in the “growth” category after five years in which the trend has been the other way round (see chart).
到转换投资风格的时候了吗？今年的股市普涨可能掩盖着市场的一个根本性转变：“价值”股正在超越“成长”股，至少在欧洲市场，情况是这样的。而在这之前的五年中，趋势一直是相反的。



The distinction between the two classifications is not cut and dried. “Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to growth and value styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance, not their sophistication,” is the warning of Warren Buffett. The noted American investor looks for a hybrid: companies that can grow their future earnings but are priced cheaply relative to what he dubs their “intrinsic value”.
这两类股票的差别不是一成不变的。沃伦·巴菲特警告说：“市场评论人士和投资投资经理肤浅地把成长和价值这两种投资风格当做是截然相反的手段，他们这样做展示的是他们的无知，而不是睿智。”这位美国投资大师寻找的是一种杂交品：一种未来盈利增长有保证，而股票价格又低于他给出的“固有价值”的公司。

The right price of any stock is the present value of future cashflows, discounted at the relevant rate. Predicting the volume of those cashflows and picking the right discount rate are the tricky bits. Both value and growth investors have to perform the task.
股票的正确价格等于以相应的比率对未来现金流进行折扣后得到的当前价值（即未来现金流贴现法/折现法——译者注）。预测现金流流量和选择正确的贴现率相当复杂，无论是价值型投资者还是成长型投资者都必须完成这项工作。

Notwithstanding Mr Buffett's cautionary words, the two groups tend to search in different places. Value investors look at stocks that are in unglamorous industries or at companies that have suffered a bout of bad news in the recent past. Growth investors examine companies where the underlying conditions look more promising but where the market may still be underestimating the potential for long-term profits growth.
尽管巴菲特有言在先，但是这两类投资者仍旧倾向于在不同的行业内寻找投资目标。价值型投资者的搜寻范围是：单调乏味的产业，或者最近遭受一连串负面消息打击的公司。成长性投资者考察的对象是：潜在条件看上去更有前途，而长期盈利增长的潜在性仍被市场低估的公司。

A value investor would usually expect a decent dividend yield; a growth investor would be happy if the company was reinvesting all its free cash. A value investor might be looking at a company with shares trading at a discount to its asset value; a growth investor might not worry if the company had much in the way of tangible assets at all. To caricature the divide, the growth investor might pick Google and the value investor would opt for Altria, the tobacco firm once known as Philip Morris.
价值型投资者通常期望获得不错的股息收益；成长性投资者喜欢的是将全部自由现金都进行二次投资的公司。价值型投资者可能正在寻找股份以低于其资产价值进行交易的公司；成长性投资者并不担心公司的有形资产到底值多少钱。两者之间的差别，具体地说就是：成长性投资者可能会选择谷歌，而价值型投资者会奥驰亚，也就是以前的菲利普·莫里斯烟草公司。

The moment when this divide seemed starkest was in the late 1990s when investors flocked to buy stocks in “new economy” companies with no profits or dividends and scorned “old economy” companies with established brand names and solid cashflows. The vast gap between the two caused consternation among traditional value managers like the late Tony Dye at Phillips & Drew, a British fund manager; clients deserted by the score.
这种差别最明显的时候是在1990年代后半期。当时，投资者争相买入“新经济”公司的股票，这些公司不是没有利润就是没有分红；而那些具备成熟的品牌和稳定的现金流的“老经济”公司，在被投资者抛弃。两者之间的巨大差别在传统的价值型投资经理中引发恐慌，如浦德鲁公司的已故基金经理英国人托尼·戴伊，从而使客户纷纷离他们而去。

Once the dotcom bubble burst, the value style outperformed for several years, before the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008 heralded yet another change in fashion. Value stocks are usually cheap for a reason. There is deep uncertainty about the outlook for their business or industry. Investors became more risk-averse as the crisis took hold and they tended to shun the value category as a result.
等到科技泡沫破裂后，价值型投资风格风光了数年。直到2007年和2008年的金融危机爆发之前，投资风格一直没有发生转变。价值股股价低是有原因的。他们的行业前景有着极大的不确定性。但是，随着危机的加剧，投资者变得更加厌恶风险，结果他们开始回避价值股。

So what is driving the recent uptick in value stocks? One reason is greater optimism about the outlook for the global economy as fears of a euro-zone break-up and a Chinese hard landing have receded. Furthermore, after years of underperformance, value stocks look like a bargain. Matthew Garman, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, reckons that European value stocks now trade at a 47% discount to their growth counterparts, a wide gap in historical terms.
那么，是什么在推动着价值股的最新一轮上涨的呢？一个原因在于，随着对欧元区分裂和中国经济硬着陆的担忧在消退，人们对全球经济前景越来越乐观。除此之外，在低迷了数年之后，价值股看上去具备投资价值。摩根士丹利的策略师马修·加曼预测，同成长股相比，欧洲的价值股有47%的折让，这是一个创纪录的差距。

Even so the stockmarket is not typically a place where investors can find lots of $100 bills lying around. Four sectors are prominent in the value category: energy, financial services, telecoms and utilities. All are potentially the object of government interference in the form of regulation, higher taxes, limits on their ability to raise prices, higher capital requirements (for the banks) or outright nationalisation (mining and oil companies in developing countries). With government finances under pressure, the risk of adverse developments for these industries must be greater than normal.
即便如此，股市可不是一个能够让投资者轻易发财的典型地方。价值股中有四类明星：能源类股票、金融服务类股票、电信类股票和公用事业类股票。但它们全都是政府介入的潜在目标。政府的介入有以下几种方式：监管，提高税率，限制提价的能力，提高资本金要求（针对银行）、完全国有化（发展中国家的采矿公司和石油企业）。由于政府的财政有压力，这些行业发生逆转的风险肯定会大于一般行业。

The other risk is that global growth may not be as strong as investors hope. European economies look stagnant; American growth, which turned negative in the last quarter of 2012, may be held back by the tax rises agreed upon in January and the potential for spending cuts in the spring. American consumer confidence fell to a 14-month low in January. Slower-than-expected growth might lead to lower commodity prices and to more trouble for the banking industry.
第二个风险是，全球的增长可能不如投资者希望的那样强劲。欧洲的经济看上去停滞不前；美国经济增长在去年第四季度出现萎缩，同时还可能会受阻于一月份达成的提税协议以及可能在春季出现的开支消减。美国的消费者信心指数在一月份跌至14个月来的低点。低于预期的增长可能会导致商品价格的下跌，也可能会给银行业带来更多的麻烦。

Still, once stockmarket trends start to develop, history suggests they can last a long time. In America value stocks have underperformed growth stocks by 23% since the start of 1997. That leaves a lot of ground to catch up.
不过，历史告诉投资者，股市的趋势一旦形成，可能会持续很长一段时期。在美国，价值股的表现自1997年初以来落后于成长股23个百分点。因此，这让价值股获得了很大的上涨空间。

邱晓云

风水轮流转