[转帖] 中国经济腾飞因资本主义而非“中国特色”

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[转帖]中国经济腾飞因资本主义而非“中国特色”
sz_xy March 13th, 10:59 来源China\'s economy: Bamboo capitalism | The Economist
译者yinquanbin

FEW would deny that China has been the economic superstar of recent years. Thanks to its relentless double-digit annual growth, it has become the world’s second-largest economy and in many ways the most dynamic. Less obvious is quite what the secret of this success has been. It is often vaguely attributed to “capitalism with Chinese characteristics”–typically taken to mean that bureaucrats with heavy, visible hands have worked much of the magic. That, naturally, is a view that China’s government is happy to encourage.

很少人能够否认，中国近年来在经济领域星光璀璨。连续几年两位数的年增长率使中国成为世界第二大、在某种意义上说最有活力的经济体。然而，中国成功背后的秘密却鲜为人知。人们经常将其笼统归因为“中国特色的资本主义”，即政府官僚通过有形的手大规模干预经济实现发展奇迹。这一理论自然得到中国政府青睐。

But is it true? Of course, the state’s activity has been vast and important. It has been effective in eradicating physical and technological obstacles: physical, through the construction of roads, power plants and bridges; technical, by facilitating (through means fair and foul) the transfer of foreign intellectual property. Yet China’s vigour owes much to what has been happening from the bottom up as well as from the top down. Just as Germany has its mighty Mittelstand, the backbone of its economy, so China has a multitude of vigorous, (very) private entrepreneurs: a fast-growing thicket of bamboo capitalism.

但事实确实如此么？诚然，政府在解决经济发展的物质和技术难题方面的角色影响宽广、不可或缺。为克服物质障碍，国家修筑道路、电站和桥梁；为解决技术难题，国家促进外国知识产权转移——尽管有时会不择手段。但中国的活力来自于经济结构顶层和底层的双向互动。德国经济依靠强大的中小企业支撑，同理，中国大把活力四射的私营企业家，浇灌出一片枝繁叶茂的竹节型资本主义。

These entrepreneurs often operate outside not only the powerful state-controlled companies, but outside the country’s laws. As a result, their significance cannot be well tracked by the state-generated statistics that serve as a flawed window into China’s economy. But as our briefing shows, they are an astonishing force.

这些企业家置身于国有体制乃至国法之外。官方统计数据虽可作为窥视中国经济的窗口，却歪曲甚多，因此也难以充分体现私营企业家的重要性。但正如我们先前所言，私企的力量不容小觑。

The Mittel Kingdom

中小企业王国

First, there is the scale of their activities. Three decades ago, pretty much all business in China was controlled by one level of the state or another. Now one estimate—and it can only be a stab—puts the share of GDP produced by enterprises that are not majority-owned by the state at 70%. Zheng Yumin, the Communist Party secretary for the commerce department of Zhejiang province, told a conference last year that more than 90% of China’s 43m companies were private. The heartland for entrepreneurial clusters is in regions, like Zhejiang, that have been relatively ignored by Beijing’s bureaucrats, but such businesses have now spread far and wide across the country.

首先，规模大。30年前，几乎所有中国企业都或多或少被国家控制。而现在，国有经济不占主导地位的企业对国民生产总值的贡献比例达到70%。在去年一次会议上，浙江商务厅党委书记郑玉民指出，中国4300万企业中超过9成实行私有制。私营企业早先多集中在浙江等不被中央重视的省份，但现在已扩展到全国各地。

Second, there is their dynamism. Qiao Liu and Alan Siu of the University of Hong Kong calculate that the average return on equity of unlisted private firms is fully ten percentage points higher than the modest 4% achieved by wholly or partly state-owned enterprises. The number of registered private businesses grew at an average of 30% a year in 2000-09. Factories that spring up alongside new roads and railways operate round-the-clock to make whatever nuts and bolts are needed anywhere in the world. The people behind these businesses endlessly adjust what and how they produce in response to extraordinary (often local) competition and fluctuations in demand. Provincial politicians, whose career prospects are tied to growth, often let these outfits operate free not only of direct state management but also from many of the laws tied to land ownership, labour relations, taxation and licensing. Bamboo capitalism lives in a laissez-faire bubble.

其次，生机勃勃。港大学者刘桥与Alan Siu统计，国有和半国有企业的净资产回报率只有区区4%，而这一数字在未上市的私企则要高出整整10%。2000年-2009年，私营企业注册数量年增 30%。在新修建的公路和铁路旁，工厂拔地而起，全天开工生产，满足世界各地需求。企业家们为应对残酷竞争（多数发生在当地）和需求变化，不断调整产品内容，改善生产方式。由于自身仕途与经济增长联系紧密，地方官员不仅使私营经济免受国家直接干预，而且在涉及土地产权、劳资关系、税收、生产许可等方面大开绿灯。竹节资本主义在自由放任的泡沫中茁壮成长。

But this points to a third, more worrying, characteristic of such businesses: their vulnerability. Chinese regulation of its private sector is often referred to as “one eye open, one eye shut”. It is a wonderfully flexible system, but without a consistent rule of law, companies are prey to the predilections of bureaucrats. A crackdown could come at any time. It is also hard for them to mature into more permanent structures.

但这也导出了这类企业的第三个、也是令人忧虑的特点：脆弱性。中国对私有企业的监管可以概括为“睁一只眼，闭一只眼”。监管体系灵活虽好，但若缺乏法治保证，企业便只能听官员个性由命。制裁的大锤随时可能落下。此外，中国企业很难成长为一个稳固恒久的体系。

Cultivate it, don’t cut it

好花堪折切勿折

All this has big implications for China itself and for the wider world. The legal limbo creates ample scope for abuse: limited regard for labour laws, for example, encourages exploitation of workers. Rampant free enterprise also lives uncomfortably alongside the country’s official ideology. So far, China has managed this rather well. But over time, the contradictions between anarchic opportunism and state direction, both vital to China’s rise, will surely result in greater friction. Party conservatives will be tempted to hack away at bamboo capitalism.

这一现象对中国乃至全球都有重要启示。法制缺失只能给滥权留下空间：不重视劳工法会鼓励剥削工人。自由企业横行也与官方意识形态同床异梦。当下，中国在两者间的平衡术还玩得不错。但随着时间推移，无法无天的机会主义与国家引导间——两者都是中国崛起的关键因素——的矛盾定将引发更大的摩擦。党内保守派随时可能砍掉资本主义竹林。

It would be much better if they tried instead to provide the entrepreneurs with a proper legal framework. Many entrepreneurs understandably fear such scrutiny: they hate standing out, lest their operations become the focus of an investigation. But without a solid legal basis (including intellectual-property laws), it is very hard to create great enterprises and brands.

如果政府能为企业家建立合理的法律框架，情况会极大改善。许多企业家畏惧类似详细审查，这不难理解：他们不想被拎出来，让自己的产业成为调查目标。但如果不能打下坚实的法律基础（包括知识产权法），企业很难做成大公司、大品牌。

The legal uncertainty pushes capital-raising into the shadows, too. The result is a fantastically supple system of financing, but a very costly one. Collateral is suspect and the state-controlled financial system does not reward loan officers for assuming the risks that come with non-state-controlled companies. Instead, money often comes from unofficial sources, at great cost. The so-called Wenzhou rate (after the most famous city for this sort of finance) is said to begin at 18% and can even exceed 200%. A loan rarely extends beyond two years. Outsiders often marvel at the long-term planning tied to China’s economy, but many of its most dynamic manufacturers are limited to sowing and reaping within an agricultural season.

法律不健全也导致融资缺乏透明。这种融资体系虽然十分灵活，却代价高昂。抵押品难获信任，国有金融机构不奖励承担非国有企业风险的信贷人员。于是，资金只能以及高的代价从非官方渠道获得。据说所谓温州利率（因温州最擅该类金融模式得名）起点在18%，最高超过200%。贷款期限很少超过两年。外人常常对中国经济的长期计划性啧啧惊奇，但经济体下最活跃的制造商却像农民一样只从事季度性的投资与回报。

So bamboo capitalism will have to change. But it is changing China. Competition from private companies has driven up wages and benefits more than any new law—helping to create the consumers China (and its firms) need. And behind numerous new businesses created on a shoestring are former factory employees who have seen the rewards that come from running an assembly line rather than merely working on one. In all these respects the private sector plays a vital role in raising living standards—and moving the Chinese economy towards consumption at home rather than just exports abroad.

所以竹节型资本主义需要调整。但它已经在改变中国。比起层出不穷的法律，私有企业间的竞争更有效地推高了工资福利，为中国（及其公司）创造出消费者。早先的工厂员工发现，资产回报来自于流水线而不是流水线上的一个点，于是自己做起了小本生意。总之，在提升国民经济水平、推动中国经济从仅靠出口转向内需消费方面，私营经济居功至伟。

The West should be grateful for that. And it should also celebrate bamboo capitalism more broadly. Too many people—not just third-world dictators but Western business tycoons—have fallen for the Beijing consensus, the idea that state-directed capitalism and tight political control are the elixir of growth. In fact China has surged forward mainly where the state has stood back. “Capitalism with Chinese characteristics” works because of the capitalism, not the characteristics.


西方应对此感到欣慰，并应更大声地颂扬竹节资本主义。太多人——不仅仅是第三世界的独裁者和西方商业大亨——被“北京共识”欺骗，以为国家资本主义与严厉政治控制是经济增长的仙丹。事实上，中国经济多在国家干预最少的领域取得进步。“中国特色的资本主义”能取得今天的成就，不是因为中国特色，而是因为资本主义。