[转帖] [2011.10.15] The A-share team A股团队

showcraft

http://www.ecocn.org/thread-59196-1-1.html
Chinese banks
中国的银行

The A-share team
A股团队

If no one else can help
假若没有别人伸出援手……
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Oct 15th 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition



FOR nine bloody weeks, China’s four biggest banks—which are also among the world’s largest—took a beating on the stockmarkets, especially in Hong Kong, where their “H” shares can be bought (lightly) and sold (heavily) by foreigners. From August 1st to October 7th, the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China together lost over $109 billion in market value (counting both their “H” shares and their “A” shares listed on the mainland).
在一连九个恐怖的星期内，中国四大银行（同时也是全球最大）在股票市场遭遇打击，特别是在他们的H股能够被外国投资者高价买入低价卖出的香港股票市场。从8月1号到10月7号，中国工商银行，中国建设银行，中国银行和中国农业银行共蒸发了1090亿美元的市场价值（若计算H股和内地上市的A股）。

They did not suffer alone. Other listed Chinese companies also fell, as investors fretted about China’s credit markets, both formal and informal, which are tightening; its property market (slowing); loans to its local governments (souring); and its overseas markets in America and Europe (contracting, perhaps).
跳水的不只四大银行。因为投资者对收紧的中国信贷市场的公开的和私下的担心，其他上市的中国企业股价亦出现下跌；中国的房地产市场（缓慢）；本地政府贷款（泛滥）；它在美国和欧洲的海外市场（可能紧缩）。

But only days after the Chinese returned from Golden Week, a national holiday, the banks were reinvigorated. By the end of October 12th they had recovered over $36 billion of market value. A day earlier, Central Huijin Investment, a government agency that owns controlling stakes in the big four banks, said it would buy more “A” shares in all of them.
但是黄金假期（国庆）之后，四大银行股票峰回路转。截止10月12日，四大行收复了超过360亿美元市值。一天前，中央汇金公司（一个拥有四大行控股权的政府机构），宣布将大手笔增持四大行A股。

The purchases were small: little more than $31m, according to Bloomberg. Yet they inspired a rally worth over 1,100 times that amount. Share-buying by corporate insiders can have an outsize impact because it suggests that people with intimate knowledge of the company believe it is too cheap. Central Huijin may have hoped to convey a similar message. That would bolster confidence in the banks, making it easier for them to raise capital, which they will need to absorb losses from the stimulus loans of the past two years.
据彭博社报道，这次买入量很小，花费仅仅是3100万美元。然而这一举动激活了超过1100倍的价值量。内部人购买股票产生巨大的影响，因为它表明，熟悉公司的人认为股票很便宜。中央汇金公司可能希望传达一个相似的信息。这个信息将提振（市场）对银行的信心，让他们筹集资本更加容易，银行们将需要这种信心来弥补过去两年刺激方案引发的坏账带来的损失。

On his blog Patrick Chovanec of Tsinghua University described the purchases as a “head-fake”, designed to gull outside investors into putting up extra money, increasing their share of the pain to come and minimising the government’s. But foreign investors are “nowhere near as gullible as they once were”, says Fraser Howie, co-author of “Red Capitalism”, a book about China’s financial system. Besides, China’s banks will not have to raise capital immediately, so a fleeting ramp-up in the share price will not help them.
清华大学的切瓦尼在他的博客上写到：购买股票作为一种“障眼法”，旨在诱骗外部投资者提供更多的资金，增加投资者未来的忧虑，将政府损失最小化。但是外国投资者“不会像从前一样容易受骗”，《红色资本》（此书介绍中国的金融体系）合著者弗雷泽豪依说道。另外，中国的银行就不必立即筹集到资金，所以短暂的股价提升于事无补。

These purchases were significant not for what they said about the banks, but for what they revealed about their owner. They signalled that China’s government will act, if necessary, to shore up the economy and the banks if a sharp slowdown takes hold. It purchased bank shares (on a far bigger scale) in September 2008, the first of a flurry of rescue measures, culminating in a big stimulus package two months later. It is unlikely that such a big stimulus will be either necessary or feasible this time: inflation is too high and the debts from the previous stimulus too big. But this small step into the market reassured investors that the government will not stand idle. The $31m-purchase was, Mr Howie says, the government’s way of saying: “Don’t worry, we’re still here.”
这些购买股票的行为的意义不是他们嘴上说的为了银行，而是透露了国家的意图。这些行为表明，如果有必要，中国政府将会采取措施扶持下滑的经济、稳定受挫的金融体系。中央汇金在08年9月增持银行股（规模更大），这是首次开展一连串的抢救措施，这些措施以2个月之后的经济刺激一揽子计划而告终。这样的大规模的刺激方案不见得对这次救市有必要或者可行，因为通胀率太高，先前刺激计划造成的债务很繁重。但这个单一的救市措施消除了投资者对政府坐视不管的疑虑。增持360亿股票，在豪依看来，是政府的豪言：“不要担心，有我呢。”

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