[转帖] [Free exchange] [2012.09.08] The mystery of Jackson Hole 杰克逊霍尔之谜

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http://www.ecocn.org/thread-82241-1-1.html
【导读】8月31日，在怀俄明州的度假胜地杰克逊霍尔召开经济研讨会，这就是美联储（Fed）一年一度的杰克逊霍尔年。各国央行行长、经济学家汇聚一堂，探讨经济复苏的问题。

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The mystery of Jackson Hole
杰克逊霍尔之谜

Central bankers wonder why success eludes them
央行行长很疑惑，为何得不到成功的眷顾

Sep 8th 2012 | from the print edition
2012.09.08 |印刷版

IMAGINE that the world’s best specialists in a particular disease have convened to study a serious and intractable case. They offer competing diagnoses and treatments. Yet preying on their minds is a discomfiting fact: nothing they have done has worked, and they don’t know why. That sums up the atmosphere at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, convened by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and attended by central bankers and economists from around the world*. Near the end Donald Kohn, who retired in 2010 after 40 years with the Fed, asked: “What’s holding the economy back [despite] such accommodative monetary policy for so long?” There was no lack of theories. But, as Mr Kohn admitted, none is entirely satisfying.

试想一下，世界上最一流的某疾病专家在一起开会，研究一个很棘手的重大病例。他们的诊断和疗法各不相同。然而，一个尴尬的事实让人们心绪不宁：他们采取的措施都不管用，而且还不知道原因何在。这就是对杰克逊霍尔年会【1】的气氛概括。堪萨斯城联邦储备银行在怀俄明州举办了这场经济研讨会，世界各地的央行行长、经济学家出席了会议。唐纳德•科恩（Donald Kohn）【2】在美联储（Fed）工作了四十年，于2010年退休。他在会议结束之际问到：“宽松货币政策已实施了这么久，经济怎么仍没复苏？”虽然不缺理论，但正如科恩所承认的，没有一项理论让人完全满意。



His question could hardly be more timely. As The Economist went to press, the European Central Bank (ECB) was meeting to discuss a resumption in purchases of bonds of peripheral euro-zone members, in a bid to alleviate strains on the single currency. Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, suggested in his speech in Jackson Hole that a third round of quantitative easing (QE), the purchase of bonds with newly created money, would be on the table when the Fed’s policy committee meets on September 12th-13th. Mr Bernanke cited research by the Fed that previous bouts of QE had lowered bond yields and boosted GDP by as much as 3%. That is good, but not good enough. In America, Britain and the euro zone, interest rates are at or near zero and central banks’ balance-sheets have ballooned, yet unemployment remains high and growth sluggish (see chart).

他的问题非常及时。本期《经济学人》付印时，欧洲央行（ECB）正召开会议，讨论重新购买欧元区外围成员国国债的计划，以减轻欧元面临的压力。Fed主席本•伯南克（Ben Bernanke）在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话暗示，9.12-13Fed政策委员会开会时，可能会考虑实施第三轮“量化宽松”（QE），用新增货币购买债券。伯南克引用了Fed的研究报告，报告指出，前几轮QE降低了国债利息，对GDP产生了三个百分点的提振作用。效果很好，但还不够。在英美及欧元区，利率为零或近似于零，中央银行的资产负债表已经膨胀，然而失业率仍居高不下，经济增长依旧缓慢（见图表）。

One school of thought is that a high unemployment rate is structural and immune to the stimulative effects of monetary policy. Edward Lazear of Stanford University and James Spletzer of America’s Census Bureau argue otherwise. In a paper presented to the conference, they showed that those sectors and demographic groups that contributed most to the rise in unemployment in 2007-09 also contributed most to its decline in 2009-12, which suggests that shifts in relative demand for workers could not explain the high level of unemployment. The mismatch between the skills of the unemployed and the skills employers demand did rise during the recession. But by late 2011 the mismatch was back down to pre-recession levels.

有一派人士认为，高失业率是结构性的问题，不受货币政策的刺激效应影响。斯坦福大学的爱德华•拉齐尔（Edward Lazear）和美国人口普查局的詹姆斯•斯巴特兹（James Spletzer）却不这么看。他们提交给会议的一篇论文显示，对2007-09失业率上升影响最大的部门和人群，同样也是促使2009-12失业率下降最重要的力量。这意味着，对工人的相对需求下降，不能解释高失业率。在经济衰退期，失业人员掌握的技能非雇主所需。这种不对口的现象的确严重了。但到了2011年下半年，它已恢复到衰退期前的状况。

If most unemployment is cyclical, not structural, the Fed could theoretically help by stimulating demand with easier monetary policy. But how? Michael Woodford of Columbia University told the conference that with short-term rates around zero, central banks have tried two broad strategies: “forward guidance”, or promising to keep the interest rate at zero for some time, or expanding their balance-sheets through QE and the like. Mr Woodford acknowledged these strategies had brought down expected short-term and actual long-term interest rates, but was sceptical about their impact on economic output. In his paper he recommended that the Fed commit to keeping policy easy until the economy reaches a particular target, such as nominal GDP (ie, output unadjusted for inflation) returning to its pre-recession path. The Fed is not about to do that, although it might decide to link future policy action to progress on unemployment.

如果大部分失业是周期性而非结构性的，那么从理论上讲，Fed放宽货币政策，刺激需求，就能使经济有所复苏。但怎样做呢？哥伦比亚大学的迈克尔•伍德福德（Michael Woodford）在会议上说到，在短期利率接近零的情况下，中央银行已尝试了两种主要策略：“前瞻指引”【3】，或者承诺在一段时间内维持零利率，或者通过QE等类似措施扩大资产负债规模。伍德福德承认，这些策略降低了预期的短期利率和实际的长期利率；但它们对经济产出会不会有影响，他持怀疑态度。他的论文建议，在经济达到某个特定目标之前，比如名义GDP（不考虑通货膨胀的产出）恢复到衰退前的水平，Fed应一直放宽政策。但Fed是不会这么做的。尽管在未来，它可能决定采取政策行动，改善失业状况。

Adam Posen, who recently left the Bank of England’s monetary-policy committee, had a different explanation for the apparent impotence of monetary policy. Since many financial markets are dysfunctional, the monetary medicine isn’t getting into the economy’s bloodstream. The solution is for central banks to buy more assets in the markets that are most obviously impaired. That is what the Bank of England is doing by providing subsidised credit to banks that lend more, what the ECB is set to do when it resumes purchasing sovereign bonds, and what the Fed could do by buying more mortgage-backed securities.

亚当•柏森（Adam Posen）前不久退出了英国央行货币政策委员会。对于货币政策为什么看似无效，他有另一种解释。由于不少金融市场功能失调，货币政策委员会开的“药”无法进入经济的“血液”中。解决方法是：让中央银行在损失最明显的市场上购买更多资产。这就是英国央行正在做的：给放贷较多的银行提供补贴信贷；这也是ECB重新开始购买国债时准备做的；这更是Fed可以做的：购买更多的按揭证券【4】。

Sages or dinosaurs?
明智谨慎还是墨守成规？

In another paper, Markus Brunnermeier and Yuliy Sannikov of Princeton University provided theoretical justification for this approach. Monetary easing usually works by encouraging businesses and households to move future consumption and investment forward to today. But it also has “redistributive” effects. For example, low short-term interest rates redistribute income from depositors to banks, which allows them to rebuild capital and encourages them to lend more. Similarly, purchases of ten-year government bonds enrich some investors while hurting others, such as pension funds, that depend on bond income to meet longer-dated liabilities. By tailoring their instruments to sectors most in need of support, central banks can get more bang for their buck.

在另一篇论文中，普林斯顿大学的马库斯•布伦纳迈尔（Markus Brunnermeier）和榆林•萨尼可夫（Yuliy Sannikov）为该方法提供了理论依据。一般来说，若要宽松货币政策起效，应鼓励企业和家庭将未来的消费和投资提前到当下。但它也会产生“再分配”效应。举个例子，如果短期利率降低，储户的收入就会“再分配”给银行。这样银行就能重建资本，并得到鼓励从而提供更多贷款。同样，如果某些投资者购买了十年期的政府债券，他们是会富起来，但这样会损害到他人，比如养老基金持有者——他们是依靠债券收入来偿还长期债务的。若“量体裁衣”，把金融工具分配给最需要帮助的部门，中央银行能收益更多。

One problem is identifying the areas where direct intervention will do the most good. Amir Sufi of the University of Chicago told the conference that raising banks’ profits has not done much to restart demand because the real problem is that indebted households cannot or will not borrow. He presented evidence that retail spending and car sales have been weaker in states that entered the recession with higher household debt.

其中一个问题是要确定区域，“对症下药”；让直接干预收效最大。芝加哥大学的埃米尔•苏非（Amir Sufi）在会议上指出，提高银行的利润对重振需求作用不大。因为真正的问题是，负债的家庭不可能、也不会再去贷款。他提供了一些证据：在那些陷入大萧条的国家中，家庭债务越高，零售支出和汽车销售越疲软。

An even bigger issue is the political controversy that ensues when central banks favour particular sectors. Fed officials are constantly told that zero interest rates are hurting savers without helping businesses. ECB purchases of peripheral countries’ bonds transfer risk from debtor to creditor states, prompting opposition from the Bundesbank and voters in creditor countries. Mr Posen decried the “self-imposed taboos” and “prehistoric thinking” that makes central banks worry that targeted lending will distort the allocation of credit or turn into politically motivated money-printing. This drew a retort from Larry Lindsey, a former Fed governor: “In a free society, individuals and institutions don’t do unusual things because if you do, and break custom and happen to be wrong, you’re betting the farm.”

更大的一个问题是，中央银行支持某些行业部门，这在政治上引起了争议。Fed官员常常被告知：零利率损害了储户的利益，同时对企业也没有帮助。ECB若购买欧元区外围成员国的债券，会将风险从债务国转移到债权国，引发德国央行和债权国选民对该方案的反对。柏森谴责道，这种“自找的忌讳”和“迂腐的思想”会让中央银行忧虑不安，担心定向的放贷会扭曲信贷的分布，或导致印钞具有政治动机。前Fed理事莱瑞•林兹森（Larry Lindsey）反驳道：“在一个自由的社会里，个人和机构是不会标新立异的，因为如果你这么做，打破了传统，又恰好出了问题，赌的可是全部家当。”

*Papers presented at Jackson Hole are available here
杰克逊霍尔年会上的论文见此处

from the print edition | Finance and economics


Background

【1】全球货币政策观察：“杰克逊霍尔共识”的命运

“杰克逊霍尔共识”(Jackson Hole Consensus)是在世界各国央行特别是美联储很流行的观点

它有如下特点:
(1)盯住通货膨胀
(2)不以资产价格为目标
(3)通过固定规则来管理市场对未来政策的预期,提高政策的透明度和可预见性。

“杰克逊霍尔共识”成功地治理了通货膨胀,但却没有控制资产价格。

专家：莫对杰克逊霍尔央行年会议手抱有幻想

8月31日在美国怀俄明州度假胜地杰克逊霍尔举行的央行会议实际上是学术讨论会议
会议不大可能为新一轮量化宽松发出明确信号，因此不要对杰克逊霍尔央行年会抱有太大期望。
从美国国内经济和政治，已及国际角度来分析，美国总统大选之前推出QE3的可能性很小。

【2】唐纳德•科恩

是美国联邦储备系统理事会的理事。2002年8月5日他成为理事，任期将至2016年1月31日。

【3】前瞻指引

本次FOMC货币政策会议上，决策者们可能将此前“0-0.25%超低利率维持至2014年底”的利率指引修改成“将0-0.25%的超低利率维持至2015年中”。

【4】按揭证券

指以房地产等实物资产或有价证券、契约等作抵押，获得银行贷款并依合同分期付清本息，贷款还清后银行归还抵押物