标题: [转帖] Business in Russia 俄罗斯的商业：每况愈下 [打印本页] 作者: showcraft 时间: 2014-4-26 11:23 标题: Business in Russia 俄罗斯的商业：每况愈下
http://www.ecocn.org/thread-197852-1-1.html
Business in Russia
俄罗斯的商业
From bad to worse
每况愈下
Domestic and foreign firms wonder how serious things might get
俄罗斯内资和外资企业都想弄明白事情会糟糕到什么程度
Apr 19th 2014 | MOSCOW | From the print edition
My other car is not a Lada
我另一辆车不是拉达牌的
1.BEFORE the current standoff between the Kremlin and the West over Ukraine, it was already clear that Russia’s economic model, of strong energy exports fuelling domestic consumption, was running out of steam. In 2007, on the eve of the global financial crisis, Russia’s economy grew by 8.5%. Last year growth was a meager 1.3%.
在近期克里姆林宫与西方关于乌克兰的僵局之前，事情就已经很清楚了：该国依靠强劲的能源出口推动国内消费的经济模式的能量已经快耗尽了。2007年，世界金融危机爆发的前夜，俄罗斯的经济增长率是8.7%，而去年则仅有1.3%。
2.Still, the country’s population of 144m, its entry into the World Trade Organisation, its consumers’ aspiration to a Western lifestyle and its status as the “R” in the BRICs have persuaded multinationals to keep investing in plants in Russia, and foreign investors to keep providing capital to Russian firms. The attitude until recently, says Alexis Rodzianko of the American Chamber of Commerce in Moscow, was that “Russia’s economy may be slowing, but my own prospects are pretty good.”
然而俄罗斯有1.44亿的人口、它加入了世贸组织，俄罗斯消费者渴望西方式的生活以及该国金砖国家之一的身份，说服了跨国企业继续向俄罗斯工厂投资，也说服了外国投资者继续向俄罗斯企业提供资金。对未来的看法，按照位于莫斯科的美国商会的ALEXIS RODZIANKO的说法，直到最近都是“俄罗斯的经济可能会放缓，但我自己的前景则一片光明”。
3.Now the outlook for businesses there is looking gloomier. With pro-Russian separatists seizing government buildings in eastern Ukraine, amid talk of a full-scale invasion, firms of all kinds fear a tightening of American-led sanctions, a cut-off of foreign lending and investment, and a further fall in consumers’ confidence.
如今当地商业前景更加灰暗了。随着亲俄罗斯分裂分子对乌克兰东部各政府办公楼的占领、对全方位入侵的议论，各种类型的企业都在担心美国领导的制裁会收紧、境外贷款和投资会中断以及消费者信心会进一步下滑。
4.The most immediate concern, especially for Western firms doing business in and with Russia, is the curbs the United States and the European Union have imposed on dealings with certain individuals. Even the somewhat stronger American sanctions imposed so far are, on paper, “pretty limited”, says Alexander Kliment of Eurasia Group, a risk-analysis firm. But they have created a “scare factor” that is magnifying their effect. For example, shares in Novatek, a gas producer, fell sharply when the restrictions were announced, on fears it might struggle to do deals with foreign partners or raise capital abroad because Gennady Timchenko, a friend of Vladimir Putin’s named on the American sanctions list, owns 23% of the company and sits on its board. If Igor Sechin, the boss of Rosneft, another energy firm, is sanctioned, the effect may be similar.
如今最直接的忧虑，尤其是对那些在俄罗斯有业务或者与俄罗斯企业有业务的企业，是美国和欧盟施加的与特定个人进行交易的限制。即便是美国迄今施加的多少严厉一些的制裁，纸面看来，按照风险分析公司EURASIA GROUP的ALEXANDER KLIMENT的说法，也是“十分有限的”。然而它们产生了一种放大了自身效果的“恐怖因素”。例如石油生产商NOVATEK，其股价在制裁措施宣布后剧烈下跌，源于它可能会为了与国外伙伴做生意或者去境外筹资而挣扎的担心，因为作为普京总统朋友的、上了美国制裁名单的GENNADY TIMCHENKO，拥有该公司23%的股份而且是董事会成员。如果IGOR SECHIN，另一家能源企业ROSNEFT的老板，受到制裁，效果可能是类似的。
5.Foreign firms fret that sanctions could also create openings for competitors. American firms worry that the EU’s softer curbs may give its companies more flexibility. The boss of Siemens, a German engineering giant, met Mr Putin in Moscow last month. Americans and Europeans alike worry about losing out to Asian rivals. Moscow business circles are full of rumours of Chinese executives trying to peel off contracts by urging Russian companies not to depend on Western ones, given the possibility of further trading restrictions.
外国公司也在为制裁可能给竞争者创造空缺而烦恼。美国公司担心欧盟软绵绵的限制可能给欧盟企业很大的弹性。德国工程巨头西门子的老板上个月在莫斯科会见了普京。美国和欧盟都担忧市场丢失给亚洲竞争者。莫斯科商界充斥着中方高层试图通过鼓励俄罗斯企业不必依赖西方企业，假定贸易限制有升级的可能的话，来掠取俄罗斯的合同的传言。
6.Russian firms and politicians, in turn, are casting around Asia and elsewhere for new customers to replace those they fear losing from the West. Russia’s deputy prime minister, Arkady Dvorkovich, said this week that the government hoped to finalise soon a long-promised deal for Gazprom to sell gas to China. Rosneft is seeking to treble its exports of oil to China. Sukhoi, a state-owned aircraft-maker, has just struck a deal to sell a fleet of small passenger jets to a Chinese airline, hoping this will offset any loss of orders from Western carriers. But its plane, the Superjet, is chock full of key parts from American and European suppliers, and thus its production is vulnerable to any tightening of sanctions.
俄罗斯企业和政治家正在轮流围绕亚洲和其他区域进行访问以期寻找新的买家来替代他们担心会失去的西方买家。俄罗斯副外长ARKADY GAZPROM说，政府希望本周尽快完成承诺已久的由GAZPROM向中国供应原油的交易。ROSNEFT公司正设法将对中国的原油出口量增加到三倍。国营飞机制造商SUKHOI刚宣布了一项向中国的航空公司出售若干架小型喷气客机的协议，希望藉此可以弥补所有流失的西方航空公司订单。但是它生产的飞机SUPERJET上布满了由美国和欧洲供应的关键部件，这使得制裁措施的任一收紧都可能影响它的生产。
7.For domestic firms, a bigger worry than the sanctions imposed so far is the risk of losing access to foreign loans, and what that will mean for investment, productivity and growth, says Elena Anankina of Standard & Poor’s, a ratings agency. Western lenders are likely to honour existing loan deals. But they may be reluctant to provide fresh financing. Rusal, an indebted aluminium producer, is among the Russian firms most exposed to this. Some state banks, such as Sberbank and VTB, have indicated they are ready to fill the gap left by Western lenders. But Ms Anankina wonders how long they will be able to do so. Indeed, some Russian banks themselves depend on Western loans. With capital flight hitting $60-70 billion in the first quarter of this year alone, investment in domestic production—what the spluttering economy needs most of all—will be even harder to come by.
对俄罗斯国内企业而言，按照评级机构标准普尔的ELENA ANANKINA的说法，比迄今已经施行的制裁相比更大的担忧则来自于失去获得境外贷款的渠道，及因失去境外贷款渠道而产生的对投资行为、生产能力和增长速率的影响。西方领导人很可能会继续兑现现存的贷款合约，但可能不愿再提供新的金融支持。陷于债务中的铝业生产商RUSAL是在这一风险下暴露最多的俄罗斯企业之一。一些国有银行，如SBERBANK和VTB，表明他们已经准备好弥补因西方借款人离开造成的缺口。但是ANANKINA女士怀疑他们能这么做多久。事实上，一些俄罗斯银行自身也依赖西方贷款。随着单是在今年一季度就达到600-700亿美元的资金流出，俄罗斯获得困顿中的经济最需要的对国内生产的投资将会更加困难。
8.The fallout from Russia’s annexation of Crimea and further stoking of unrest in eastern Ukraine has put downward pressure on an already weakening rouble. On its face, a cheaper currency should be a boon to domestic producers. Visiting Moscow this month, Carlos Ghosn, the boss of Renault-Nissan, a global carmaker which is buying control of AvtoVAZ, the maker of Lada cars, argued that the weak currency will be “an advantage for local brands”.
俄罗斯吞并克里米亚的余波和乌克兰东部的不平静的继续激化给已经开始弱化的卢布带来下降压力。表面看来，更廉价的本国货币对国内生产商是个利好。在本月访问莫斯科时，CARLOS GHOSN认为，弱势的本币将是“本国品牌的一大优势”，CARLOS GHOSN是全球汽车制造商雷诺-日产的老板，他的企业正在收购对拉达牌汽车的生产商AVTOVAZ的控制权。
9.But thinking that a “weak rouble is the way forward” is the “wrong paradigm,” argues Yaroslav Lissovolik of Deutsche Bank. Many Russian manufacturers, like Sukhoi, depend on imports for inputs and equipment. And in any case, many are running near full capacity and will be unable to grab market share from foreign rivals without money to invest in increasing output.
然而德意志银行的YAROSLAV LISSOVOLIK觉得，认为“弱势的卢布是前进的方式”的观点是“错误的模式”。许多俄罗斯制造企业，例如SUKHOI，依赖进口原料和设备。这些企业几乎全部的产能都已经开动了，如果没有资金投入来增加产量，任何情况下它们都不可能从外国竞争者手中抢到市场份额的。
10.This confluence of economic bad news will hit a few industries first and hardest: consumer goods, construction, property and banking. Demand for the roughly half of Russian steel that goes to building projects at home will drop. Car sales, dependent on the availability of bank loans, will probably fall. Already a softening market has led Ford to consider cutting production at its joint venture with Sollers, a Russian firm. Even a continuation of the current stand-off between the Kremlin and the West would be bad enough for business. But things may well get far worse.
经济上的坏消息汇聚在一起可能给一些行业造成最先也最严重的打击：消费品行业、建筑行业、地产行业和银行业。几乎占了俄罗斯钢材需求的一半的住宅建筑业的钢材需求量将会下降。依赖银行贷款的汽车销量也很可能下降。市场的走弱已经让福特考虑削减它与俄罗斯公司SOLLERS合资的汽车制造厂的产量。即便是克里姆林宫与西方现有僵局的持续对商业而言就已经坏透了。然而事情很可能还会糟得多。
