[转帖] [2012.02.02] Northern lights 北欧专题报道 - 北极光

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http://www.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=180458
Northern lights
北极光

The Nordic countries are reinventing their model of capitalism, says Adrian Wooldridge
艾德里-伍尔德里奇（Adrian Wooldridge）指出北欧国家正在重塑它们的资本主义模式

Feb 2nd 2013 |From the print edition



THIRTY YEARS AGO Margaret Thatcher turned Britain into the world’s leading centre of “thinking the unthinkable”. Today that distinction has passed to Sweden. The streets of Stockholm are awash with the blood of sacred cows. The think-tanks are brimful of new ideas. The erstwhile champion of the “third way” is now pursuing a far more interesting brand of politics.

三十年前马格丽特-撒切尔（Margaret Thatcher）将英国转变成了一个在全世界首屈一指“敢于想不可想象之事”的中心。今天这项荣耀则移到了瑞典头上。斯德哥尔摩的大街上充满着打破禁忌局限所产生的新气象。智囊机构的好点子层出不穷。之前身为“第三条道路”[1]的拥护者，如今瑞典所追求的政治模式要比过去有趣得多。

Sweden has reduced public spending as a proportion of GDP from 67% in 1993 to 49% today. It could soon have a smaller state than Britain. It has also cut the top marginal tax rate by 27 percentage points since 1983, to 57%, and scrapped a mare’s nest of taxes on property, gifts, wealth and inheritance. This year it is cutting the corporate-tax rate from 26.3% to 22%.

瑞典政府开支占国民生产总值（GDP）的比例已从1993年的67%降到了今天的49%。很快其政府规模将会比英国更小。同时，瑞典的最高边际税率已降到了57%，比1983年整整低了27个百分点，而且瑞典政府也已取消了大量混乱不堪的财产税，馈赠税以及继承税。今年瑞典将会把企业所得税从26.3%下调到22%。

Sweden has also donned the golden straitjacket of fiscal orthodoxy with its pledge to produce a fiscal surplus over the economic cycle. Its public debt fell from 70% of GDP in 1993 to 37% in 2010, and its budget moved from an 11% deficit to a surplus of 0.3% over the same period. This allowed a country with a small, open economy to recover quickly from the financial storm of 2007-08. Sweden has also put its pension system on a sound foundation, replacing a defined-benefit system with a defined-contribution one and making automatic adjustments for longer life expectancy.

瑞典也披上了“黄金紧身衣”[2]——承诺会在这个经济周期内达到财政预算盈余。其政府债务占GDP的比例已从已从1993年的70%减少到了2010年的37%。同期瑞典政府预算也从11%的赤字转变至0.3%的盈余。所有这些行动使这个开放的小经济体迅速地从2007-08的金融风暴中恢复过来。瑞典同时也打稳了其退休金制度的基础，将约定提存制度改成了约定给付制度[3]，并让退休金根据平均寿命的增长自动进行调整。

Most daringly, it has introduced a universal system of school vouchers and invited private schools to compete with public ones. Private companies also vie with each other to provide state-funded health services and care for the elderly. Anders Aslund, a Swedish economist who lives in America, hopes that Sweden is pioneering “a new conservative model”; Brian Palmer, an American anthropologist who lives in Sweden, worries that it is turning into “the United States of Swedeamerica”.

瑞典政策中最大胆的一项要数引入普遍的学券制度[4]，使得私立学校和公立学校互相竞争。私人公司也会互相较劲争夺由政府出资支付的医疗和老年人看护服务业务。身居美国的瑞典经济学家安德斯-阿斯朗德（Ander Aslund）期待瑞典开创“一种崭新的保守主义模式”，而身居瑞典的美国人类学家布莱恩-帕尔默（Brian Palmer）则担心瑞典正在转变成美国的翻版。

There can be no doubt that Sweden’s quiet revolution has brought about a dramatic change in its economic performance. The two decades from 1970 were a period of decline: the country was demoted from being the world’s fourth-richest in 1970 to 14th-richest in 1993, when the average Swede was poorer than the average Briton or Italian. The two decades from 1990 were a period of recovery: GDP growth between 1993 and 2010 averaged 2.7% a year and productivity 2.1% a year, compared with 1.9% and 1% respectively for the main 15 EU countries.

瑞典无声无息的改革已为其经济表现带来翻天覆地的变化，这是不容置疑的。1970年，瑞典是世界第四富有的国家，在其后的二十几年里，它在全世界国家富足程度排行榜上一路下跌，到1993年只能列居第十四位。当时，普通的瑞典人要比普通的英国人或是意大利人都更穷。1990年之后的二十年则迎来了一段复苏期，1993年至2010年间瑞典GDP年均增长率达到2.7%，生产力年均增长率则为2.1%。同期在欧盟主要的15个国家里，这两个年均增长率分别是1.9%和1%。

For most of the 20th century Sweden prided itself on offering what Marquis Childs called, in his 1936 book of that title, a “Middle Way” between capitalism and socialism. Global companies such as Volvo and Ericsson generated wealth while enlightened bureaucrats built the Folkhemmet or “People’s Home”. As the decades rolled by, the middle way veered left. The government kept growing: public spending as a share of GDP nearly doubled from 1960 to 1980 and peaked at 67% in 1993. Taxes kept rising. The Social Democrats (who ruled Sweden for 44 uninterrupted years from 1932 to 1976 and for 21 out of the 24 years from 1982 to 2006) kept squeezing business. “The era of neo-capitalism is drawing to an end,” said Olof Palme, the party’s leader, in 1974. “It is some kind of socialism that is the key to the future.”

在20世纪的大多数时间里，瑞典都以自己的独特的政治路线为豪。马其斯-查尔兹（Marquis Childs）1936年所著的《中间路线》一书将这种模式称为介于资本主义和社会主义中间的一条道路。在这一模式下，如沃尔沃和爱立信之类的全球企业负责制造财富，而开明的官僚则专注于建立“人民之家”[5]。几十年的时间过去了，这条中间路线开始逐渐偏左。政府规模越来越大：1960年至1980年间，政府开支占GDP的比例几乎翻了一倍，并于1993年达到67%的高峰。税收一路攀升。瑞典社会民主党（从1932年至1976年连续执政44年，并在1982年至2006年间的24年中有21年处于执政地位）一直大力对企业施压。1974年，该党党魁奥洛夫-帕尔米（Olof Palme）曾说过：“新资本主义的时代已接近尾声。未来的关键是某种形式的社会主义。”



The other Nordic countries have been moving in the same direction, if more slowly. Denmark has one of the most liberal labour markets in Europe. It also allows parents to send children to private schools at public expense and make up the difference in cost with their own money. Finland is harnessing the skills of venture capitalists and angel investors to promote innovation and entrepreneurship. Oil-rich Norway is a partial exception to this pattern, but even there the government is preparing for its post-oil future.

如今其它北欧国家虽然没有瑞典转变得那么快，却也在向同一方向靠拢。丹麦拥有全欧洲最自由化的劳工市场。它也允许家长拿政府补贴送孩子去私立学校就读，自己掏腰包填补多余的学费差额。芬兰在用风险资本家和天使投资人的技巧来推广科技创新和创业精神。石油蕴藏量丰富的挪威在一定程度上可说是这一改革势头中的例外，但即使是挪威政府也在为本国石油开采殆尽之后的未来做打算。

This is not to say that the Nordics are shredding their old model. They continue to pride themselves on the generosity of their welfare states. About 30% of their labour force works in the public sector, twice the average in the Organisation for Economic Development and Co-operation, a rich-country think-tank. They continue to believe in combining open economies with public investment in human capital. But the new Nordic model begins with the individual rather than the state. It begins with fiscal responsibility rather than pump-priming: all four Nordic countries have AAA ratings and debt loads significantly below the euro-zone average. It begins with choice and competition rather than paternalism and planning. The economic-freedom index of the Fraser Institute, a Canadian think-tank, shows Sweden and Finland catching up with the United States (see chart). The leftward lurch has been reversed: rather than extending the state into the market, the Nordics are extending the market into the state.

这并不是指北欧国家在彻底摒弃自己过去的模式。它们依然以身为慷慨的福利国家为豪。这些国家中依然有大约30%的工作人士在国有产业工作，这个比例是发达国家智囊组织——经济发展及合作组织成员国平均值的两倍。而且北欧国家依然相信将开放型经济和对人力资本进行政府投资两者结合起来的模式。但新的北欧模式的出发点如今已是个人而非国家。在这一新模式中，首要的是对财政开支负责，而不是借政府投资推动经济：四个北欧国家都拥有AAA的信用评级，其债务负担也比欧元区平均值低得多。同样，这一新模式的根本在于选择和竞争，而不是家长主义和经济计划。加拿大智囊组织弗雷泽学院公布的经济自由度指数显示瑞典和芬兰的经济自由度正在赶上美国（见图）。左倾的路线现在已被反转过来：与其说是让政府涉足市场，北欧国家如今是在将市场引入政府。



Why are the Nordic countries doing this? The obvious answer is that they have reached the limits of big government. “The welfare state we have is excellent in most ways,” says Gunnar Viby Mogensen, a Danish historian. “We only have this little problem. We can’t afford it.” The economic storms that shook all the Nordic countries in the early 1990s provided a foretaste of what would happen if they failed to get their affairs in order.

为什么北欧国家会进行这些转变？最明显的答案是：它们已达到大政府的极限。丹麦历史学家冈纳尔-维比-摩根森认为：“福利国家在大多方面都很出色。只是有一个小问题，就是我们无力负担。”20世纪90年代早期席卷北欧国家的经济风暴让这些国家提前意识到如果无法整理好自己的事务前面等着它们的会是什么。

There are two less obvious reasons. The old Nordic model depended on the ability of a cadre of big companies to generate enough money to support the state, but these companies are being slimmed by global competition. The old model also depended on people’s willingness to accept direction from above, but Nordic populations are becoming more demanding.

此外还有两个没那么明显的原因。过去的北欧模式其根本依赖于一群大企业产生足以支撑国家的利润，但现在这些企业正在被全球竞争削弱。另外，旧有模式也依赖于人们心甘情愿接受政府命令的心理，但是北欧老百姓的要求正在变得越来越高。

Small is powerful
小即强

The Nordic countries have a collective population of only 26m. Finland is the only one of them that is a member of both the European Union and the euro area. Sweden is in the EU but outside the euro and has a freely floating currency. Denmark, too, is in the EU and outside the euro area but pegs its currency to the euro. Norway has remained outside the EU.

北欧四国的总人口只有区区2600万。芬兰是其中唯一同时身处欧盟及欧元区的国家。瑞典是欧盟国家，但不在欧元区内，其货币自由浮动。丹麦也身处欧盟却不在欧元区内，但其货币和欧元挂钩。挪威则置身于欧盟之外。

But there are compelling reasons for paying attention to these small countries on the edge of Europe. The first is that they have reached the future first. They are grappling with problems that other countries too will have to deal with in due course, such as what to do when you reach the limits of big government and how to organise society when almost all women work. And the Nordics are coming up with highly innovative solutions that reject the tired orthodoxies of left and right.

但我们有很好的理由去关注这四个位于欧洲边缘的小国。首先，它们在时间上领先于其它国家。它们所面临的很多问题其它国家在未来也必须要面对，如一旦大政府达到其极限应该怎么办，以及如何组织一个几乎所有女性全部工作的社会。而且，北欧国家一直在出台别开生面，拒绝被左右正统政治思维所束缚的解决方法。

The second reason to pay attention is that the new Nordic model is proving strikingly successful. The Nordics dominate indices of competitiveness as well as of well-being. Their high scores in both types of league table mark a big change since the 1980s when welfare took precedence over competitiveness.

其次，事实证明新北欧模式非常成功。北欧国家在各项竞争力排名以及生活水平排名上都名列前茅。它们在这两种排名中都位居前列标志20世纪80年代这些国家福利重于竞争力的思想已发生巨大转变。

The Nordics do particularly well in two areas where competitiveness and welfare can reinforce each other most powerfully: innovation and social inclusion. BCG, as the Boston Consulting Group calls itself, gives all of them high scores on its e-intensity index, which measures the internet’s impact on business and society. Booz & Company, another consultancy, points out that big companies often test-market new products on Nordic consumers because of their willingness to try new things. The Nordic countries led the world in introducing the mobile network in the 1980s and the GSM standard in the 1990s. Today they are ahead in the transition to both e-government and the cashless economy. Locals boast that they pay their taxes by SMS. This correspondent gave up changing sterling into local currencies because everything from taxi rides to cups of coffee can be paid for by card.

北欧国家在两个领域表现尤其出色：创新和社会包容，这恰恰是竞争力和福利互补作用最强的两个领域。波士顿咨询集团（BCG）制定的电子强度指数专门测量互联网对企业和社会有多大影响力。北欧四国在该指数上得分都很高。另一间咨询公司博斯公司也指出一些大企业常常在北欧消费者身上对新产品进行市场测试，原因在于北欧人很乐意尝试新事物。北欧国家在20世纪80年代领先世界引入了手机网络，并在90年代确立了全球移动通信系统（GSM）标准。今天北欧国家在向电子政府和无现金经济过渡这些领域再次领先全球。北欧人会夸耀自己可以用短信交税。笔者现在去北欧已经不再把英镑换成当地货币了，因为从出租车到买咖啡所有地方部可以刷卡。

The Nordics also have a strong record of drawing on the talents of their entire populations, with the possible exception of their immigrants. They have the world’s highest rates of social mobility: in a comparison of social mobility in eight advanced countries by Jo Blanden, Paul Gregg and Stephen Machin, of the London School of Economics, they occupied the first four places. America and Britain came last. The Nordics also have exceptionally high rates of female labour-force participation: in Denmark not far off as many women go out to work (72%) as men (79%).

北欧国家在社会各层里发掘人才的记录也很不错，除了移民群体可能是个例外。北欧国家的社会移动性居世界前列。伦敦政经学院的乔-布兰登（Jo Blanden）,保罗-格莱格（Paul Greg）和斯蒂芬-马钦（Stephen Machin）比较了八个发达国家的社会移动性，他们发现北欧四国占了前四名，而美国和英国则落在榜尾。北欧国家的女性工作率也高得不同寻常：在丹麦女性工作比例（72%）和男性工作比例（79%）所差无几。

Flies in the ointment
美中不足

This special report will examine the way the Nordic governments are updating their version of capitalism to deal with a more difficult world. It will note that in doing so they have unleashed a huge amount of creativity and become world leaders in reform. Nordic entrepreneurs are feeling their oats in a way not seen since the early 20th century. Nordic writers and artists—and indeed Nordic chefs and game designers—are enjoying a creative renaissance.

本专题报道将会讨论这些北欧政府是如何更新其资本主义模式来应对更为困难的世界。我们也注意到在这种政治模式更新的过程中，北欧国家释放出了大量创意，成为了世界改革浪潮的领导。今天北欧创业家们满是干劲的程度自20世纪初以来还是头一遭。北欧作家和艺术家，还有厨师和游戏设计师都在享受着一波创意复兴。

The report will also add caveats. The growing diversity of Nordic societies is generating social tensions, most horrifically in Norway, where Anders Breivik killed 77 people in a racially motivated attack in 2011, but also on a more mundane level every day. Sweden is finding it particularly hard to integrate its large population of refugees.

本报道也会提出一些值得注意的问题。北欧社会在越来越多样化的同时其社会张力也在增加。这一问题最可怕的体现发生在2011年，当时持有种族主义动机的安德斯-布雷维克（Anders Breivik）在挪威屠杀了77人。但是在一些更不起眼的地方这种社会张力的增加也体现在日常生活里。瑞典发现要让国内数量巨大的难民群体融入瑞典社会尤为困难。



The Nordic model is still a work in progress. The three forces that have obliged the Nordic countries to revamp it—limited resources, rampant globalisation and growing diversity—are gathering momentum. The Nordics will have to continue to upgrade their model, but they will also have to fight to retain what makes it distinctive. Lant Pritchett and Michael Woolcock, of the World Bank, have coined the term “getting to Denmark” to describe successful modernisation. This report will suggest that the trick is not just to get to Denmark; it is to stay there.

北欧模式依然是一项未完成的工程。三个驱使北欧国家改头换面的推动因素——有限的资源，高速的全球化以及社会多样性的增长——如今势头越来越猛。北欧国家必须要改善自己的模式，但同时它们也必须努力保留赋予这些模式独特性的方面。世界银行的兰特-普里特切特（Lant Pritchett）和迈克尔-乌尔考克（Michale Woolcock）发明了“前往丹麦”这一词语来描述成功的现代化过程。本报道认为抵达丹麦并不难，难的是如何在抵达后一直留在那儿。

The final caveat is about learning from the Nordic example, which other countries are rightly trying to do. Britain, for example, is introducing Swedish-style “free schools”. But transferring such lessons is fraught with problems. The Nordics’ success depends on their long tradition of good government, which emphasises not only honesty and transparency but also consensus and compromise. Learning from Denmark may be as difficult as staying there.

最后一点问题在于如何学习北欧国家的榜样。其它国家正在试图复制其成功模式，这做得很对。例如英国正在引入瑞典风格的“免费学校”[5]。但是要把这些经验移植过来的过程本身包含很多问题。北欧国家的成功和其长期以来良好行政的传统是密不可分的。这些国家的政府一直以来不仅强调廉洁和透明，而且也很重视民意和妥协。要学习丹麦也许和留在丹麦一样困难。

译者注

1 - The Third Way，在政治学中指既非左（社会/自由主义）又非右（资本/保守主义）的一种立场。其目的是为了结合资本主义利于经济发展，社会主义利于降低不平等现象的优点，创造出一种新的政治路线。通常会将左派的社会政策和右派的经济政策结合，不抵触大政府，但将政府职能主要使用在促进社会平等公正上，对私有企业不过度管制。高福利国家是这条路线比较著名的体现。现代提倡第三路线的知名政客包括美国克林顿和英国的布莱尔。

2 - Golden straitjacket，美国著名记者兼作家托马斯-弗里曼（Thomas Friedman）提出的概念，指出在全球化背景下各国必须放弃一部分主权（如对资本市场或是跨国公司的部分控制）。这种外在限制如同一件紧身衣。保持财政预算平衡也是之一，因为国际债券市场对对各国债务起到了监视的总用。

3 - Defined Benefit(DB，约定提存）和Define Contribution（DC，约定给付）是退休金的两种制度。在DB下，将来领取的退休金金额是得到保证的，如果个人/雇主/国家定期缴付的退休基金加上长期投资回报不足以达到承诺金额，余数就需要雇主或国家贴补（这部分被称为unfunded obligation）。这种制度近年来造成很多公司/国家不堪重负，被视为不可持续。现在很多私营企业已切换到DC制度，即只保证定期缴付的退休基金额，不保证将来收益。

4 - School vouncher，学券，即相对于政府出资办公立学校，不愿意把子女送去公立学校的家长可以获得政府补贴的学券，用于抵消私立学校的学费。右派人士认为这么做可以增加家长的选择，促进竞争，提高教育水平。左派人士则认为这是拿政府的钱花在私营企业上，会使公立学校资金受困，无法给穷人提供足够的资金。

5 - Free school是英国的叫法，在瑞典或美国这类学校称为Charter School,特许学校。这些学校和公立学校一样由政府出资，对学生免学费，但是在行政教学上独立于地方政府机构，有较大的自主权。支持大政府的左派斥责其为“拿纳税人钱的伪公立学校”，右派则认为这增加了选择，提高了教学质量。