[转帖] [2012.08.04] Corn on the cusp 风口浪尖上的玉米
http://www.ecocn.org/thread-74979-1-1.html
【导读】：公元二零一二，岁值壬辰，中国大涝，美国大旱，俄国阴晴不定，各国农作物深受其害。有人言：谷贱伤农、谷贵伤民。谷物之贵贱，牵一发而动全身。谷物出口国如何自保？谷物进口国如何求粮？何人能解各国粮草之困？天下粮荒果然袭来？请看本集——天公不作美，粮食收成仅十之二三；各国忙应对，四路神通解燃眉之急。
Soaring grain prices
高涨的粮食价格
Corn on the cusp
风口浪尖上的玉米
Another food crisis looms
一场新的粮食危机暗涌浮动
Aug 4th 2012 | from the print edition
DARK clouds gathered on the horizon foretell doom in the popular imagination. Yet it is the prolonged absence of them in America’s Midwest that threatens global grain and soyabean markets. A lack of rain has brought the worst drought in over 50 years to a region that usually provides over half the corn (maize) and more than two-fifths of the soya to world markets. A downpour in the next few days will not save the corn—it has been too hot and dry for too long—but it might limit damage to the soya crop and the market as a whole.
笼罩在天边的乌云在我们通常的想象中往往预示着厄运。但对于美国中西部地区来说这片乌云很久没有光临过了，以至于威胁到全球谷物和大豆市场。降雨量的缺乏给这片区域带来了50多年来最严重的干旱，而这片区域一直为全球市场提供了一半的玉米和五分之二的大豆。接下来几天的一场瓢泼大雨不能挽救因长期干热而受损的玉米，但是也许能最大范围的减少大豆作物和市场的损失。
After two lean seasons, expectations for a bumper corn crop were high, according to Kona Haque of Macquarie, a bank. The bad years meant high prices. Planting began early and hit a record as corn won the battle for acres with soya and cotton. The weather began well. In May three-quarters of the corn was judged in good or excellent condition by America’s Department of Agriculture. Parched earth means that just a quarter of the crop now gets that rating, one of the lowest ever.
根据麦格理银行的Kona Haque所称，两个歉收季节过后，人们对玉米作物收成的期望变得相当高了。风不调雨不顺的一年往往意味着庄稼能卖个好价格。播种早早就开始并在规模上创下了纪录，因为玉米已赢得了对大豆棉花的种植大战。开始时候天气很好。在五月，四分之三的玉米被美国农业部评为状况良好或者非常出色。炎热的大地意味着只有四分之一的农作物达到了先前那个标准，这也是优秀玉米产量最低的一年。
Corn prices have climbed (see chart) and hopes that low stocks might be replenished have been dashed. America’s crop goes in roughly equal measure to producing ethanol, feeding livestock and for export. All three will feel the pinch.
玉米价格逐步攀升（见表），对库存不足的粮仓进行补充的这一希望也破灭了。美国的农作物有三种应用途径：生产乙醇，喂养牲畜和出口。但三者都已穷途末路。
Ethanol production has already dropped sharply. American law requires that a set amount is blended with petrol. Discretionary blending above the mandate is falling. Poultry, beef and pork producers, facing rising feed bills, have called for the mandate to be waived. This would probably not help much. By reducing exports, drawing from stocks and using paper credits accrued from exceeding mandates previously, ethanol supplies can be maintained while corn demand is cut.
乙醇的产量已经飞速下降了。美国法律规定可将一定量的乙醇与汽油混合。规定的混合比例下降了。饲养成本攀升的家禽厂、牛肉厂和猪肉厂已经要求账单减免。这也许无力回天。通过减少出口、调用库存和运用之前存在的剩余任务来建立合同贷款，可以满足在需求削减的同时维持乙醇的供给。
And in an election year Barack Obama is unlikely to risk the wrath of corn-growing swing states such as Ohio, Michigan and Iowa by doing anything that will hit prices. Livestock farmers have no such clout and face a tough decision. A wobbly economy makes it hard to pass on rising feed prices to customers. Some are sending animals for slaughter, pushing prices down. Others are hanging on, in the hope that prices will later surge as a result.
在美国的选举年，巴拉克•奥巴马不可能通过打压价格去得罪那些立场未定的盛产玉米之州，比如俄亥俄州、密歇根州和爱荷华州。畜牧业的牧民们可没有那么大的影响力，他们要面临一个艰难的决定。一个脆弱的经济使得人们很难将饲养成本转嫁给消费者。一部分牧民将牲畜送到屠宰场，进而使成本更低一些。另一部分则隔岸观火，他们寄希望于不久以后价格能够扶摇直上。
America can cut corn exports. But the world’s other big corn-exporting regions, South America and Ukraine, have also suffered droughts. Big importers, such as Japan, South Korea and many poor countries, face a problem. Bad weather in Russia will also hit exports of wheat. And high corn prices last year encouraged a switch to feeding livestock with low-grade wheat, depleting stockpiles. So the prospects for substitution are limited.
美国可以削减出口。但是世界上其他的大型玉米出口国家，比如南非和乌克兰，也遭遇了干旱。像日本、韩国和一些贫困国家这样的大型玉米进口国也遇到了一个难题。俄罗斯恶劣的天气也给其小麦出口一个重创。而且去年玉米的高价让人们转向用低档小麦来喂养牲畜，而这些低档小麦都来源于库存。所以玉米替代品的前景也是很有限的。
If the rains come too late to save America’s soya harvest, a bad situation could become dire and hit the whole food sector, according to Abdolreza Abbassian of the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation. Bad weather in South America has affected soya already. Rising wheat prices and a failure of America’s soya harvest might scare nervy Asian countries into a rice-export ban just as during the food crisis of 2007-08. Even if they do not, hopes for a sustained drop in food prices have been dashed for another year.
根据联合国粮食与农业组织的Abdolreza Abbassian先生所言：如果大于降临的太迟以至于不能缓解大豆收获的燃眉之急，那么后果不堪设想并会沉重打击整个食品行业。南美洲的糟糕天气也已影响了大豆现状。不断攀升的小麦价格和美国大豆的收获惨淡可能会让亚洲国家恐惧并实行大米出口的限制，就像2007-2008的粮食危机中亚洲国家的表现一样。如果他们真的这样做了，那么明年粮食价格持续下降的希望也会破灭。 |
发表于 2012-8-14 15:57
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发表于 2012-8-14 19:01
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