http://www.ecocn.org/thread-60344-1-1.html The euro crisis and emerging markets 欧债危机&新兴市场
Drought warning
干涸警报
With the debt crisis worsening, trouble is in store for the neighbours
随着债务危机不断升级，或波及邻国
Nov 12th 2011 |from the print edition
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ASTHE rich world lurches from one crisis to the next, a consolation has been thatemerging economies, which account for about half of world output, have beengrowing quickly. Even the wretched euro zone has a few racy emerging marketsnearby. Turkey has on occasion rivalled China, with GDP growth of around 9% in2010. Poland’s was the only economy in the 27-strong European Union to avoidrecession in 2009. Sadly, euro misery seems to love company. A deep recessionin the currency zone would leave few countries unscathed, even in fast-growingemerging Asia. For developing economies closer to home, the euro zone’s banksmay be the main route by which the suffering spreads.
虽然第一世界面临了一次又一次的危机，但是令人欣慰的是，占有世界产出一半份额的新兴市场，正不断的快速成长。即使是满目疮痍的欧元区，其周边还是有那么少数一些活跃的新兴市场。土耳其，就能和中国这个在2010年GDP增长速度达到9%左右的国家，不时地较量一下。波兰是在27个强大的欧盟国家中，唯一一个2009年没有发生萧条的经济体。不幸的是，欧元悲剧似乎就这么爱上了“有难同当”。货币区最为严重的萧条将几乎所有的国家整得残败不堪，即使是发展势头甚猛的亚洲。对于那些就在家门口的发展中国家，欧元区银行或许正是危机蔓延的罪魁祸首。
Thesebanks are under pressure to meet higher capital-ratio targets as part of a dealmade last month to “save” the euro. Lenders may choose to cut loans rather thanraise equity, which would dilute existing shareholders (including bankexecutives). Europe’s banks are owed $3.4 trillion by emerging economies, $1.3trillion of which has been lent to eastern Europe, according to the Bank forInternational Settlements. Many have subsidiaries in the region. If bankschoose to sacrifice foreign lending to concentrate on business at home, itcould choke the supply of credit.
这些银行被施压要求完成上个月所制订的部分计划：实现高资本率，拯救欧元。贷款人可能会选择减少贷款，而非募集资本，这样做将摊薄现有的股东权益（其中也包括那些银行高管的权益）。根据国际清算银行的数据，欧洲所有的银行一共欠新型经济体3.4万亿美元，其中东欧欠债1.3万亿美元。许多银行在当地都有自己的附属机构。如果银行选择牺牲外国贷款，转而把目光着重放在本国事业上，这将会抑制信贷供给。
In a speechon November 8th, Mark Carney, the new head of the Financial Stability Board, aclub of international regulators, gave warning about the damaging effects ofEuropean bank “deleveraging” on the world economy. Already Germany’ssecond-largest bank, Commerzbank, has said it will suspend new lending outsideits home market—although it made Poland, where it has a subsidiary, anexception.
国际监管者的聚集地---金融稳定委员会的新任主席Mark Carney，在11月8日的演讲中提出警告，称欧洲银行针对世界经济采取的“去杠杆化”行为产生了破坏性影响。德国第二大银行---德国商业银行已经表示，他们仍然会保留对外贷款，但是波兰—--虽然他们也有附属机构，则不包括在内。
Thecurrent-account balance is a rough guide to which countries are mostvulnerable. On that basis, Asia is generally a safer place than eastern Europe,where several countries run large current-account deficits, and so relyin part on fresh loans from big European lenders. Turkey looks at risk: the IMFputs its deficit at 10% of GDP this year. Poland has a biggish deficit,although Commerzbank’s pledge suggests its credit line to rich Europe may bemore solid. Hungary is in surplus but it still has a financing hole to fill,says Gillian Edgeworth of UniCredit, because it has IMF loans to pay off andbecause foreign banks have been slowly withdrawing from it. Investors have beenspooked by the government’s rows with its IMF rescuers and by a plan to caprepayments on Hungarians’ foreign-exchange mortgages. Greece’s banking troublesare a threat to economies in south-east Europe.
对那些经济极为脆弱的国家来说，国际收支平衡是一个粗略的指标。以这点为基础来看，亚洲比东欧（少数几个大国拥有巨额的经常项目赤字）要安全很多，同时亚洲有部分新增贷款来自于大型的欧洲贷款机构。土耳其似乎是处在风险之中：国际货币基金组织（IMF）今年将其赤字规划为GDP的10%。尽管德国商业银行的承诺似乎是表明他们对那些欧洲发达国家的信贷额度会保持更加稳定的状态，但是波兰仍是有着数目不小的赤字。意大利联合信贷银行的Gillian Edgeworth认为，匈牙利虽处在贸易顺差之中，但是它仍然有他们自己的金融贷款要去弥补，因为要还清IMF的欠款，同时外资银行也在不断缓慢地从匈牙利撤出。政府和IMF援助者们争论的事实，以及针对匈牙利的外汇抵押贷款采取还款上限的计划，吓坏了不少投资者。希腊的金融问题对于东南部的欧洲经济来说是一个不小的威胁。
Adrying up of foreign bank credit would also put downward pressure on thecurrencies of countries that rely on foreign capital, making it trickier forthem to cut interest rates to stimulate their economies. Some emerging marketshave already seen their currencies drop in recent months (see chart). A bigsell-off in September, since partly reversed, was a warning of future trouble,says Stephen Jen of SLJ Macro Partners, a hedge fund.
外资银行信贷的干涸，同样向那些依靠外资发展的国家货币施加了不小的压力，这使得他们更难通过降低利率来刺激经济。一些新兴市场在近几个月已经面临了货币贬值的境地（见表）。SLJ Macro Partners一家对冲基金的Stephen Jen表示，虽然有一部分已经反弹，9月的一次较大规模的货币下跌，是对未来会发生危机的一种警告。
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Thereis an irony here. As the euro zone’s trouble spots, such as Italy, struggleagainst the constraints of a currency union, some developing countries (and afew rich ones, such as Japan and Switzerland) have long grappled with theproblem of managing floating exchange rates. Brazil imposed a tax on theflightier sorts of foreign capital to stop the real from appreciating too much.In a similar vein Turkey initiated a range of unorthodox measures late lastyear to curb capital inflows and relieve the upward pressure on its currency,the lira. To cool a credit boom, the authorities forced banks to hold more cashreserves and put ceilings on property loan-to-value ratios asalternatives to raising interest rates (which might attract yet more footloosemoney). Turkey’s central bank also intervened in currency markets to hold downthe lira.
这里有讽刺的意思在里面。当欧元区的动荡地区，比如意大利，正努力摆脱货币联盟的诸多限制的时候，一些发展中国家（以及一些少数发达国家，比如日本和瑞士）正纠结于浮动汇率的管理问题。巴西对资本转移强加税收，以阻止实际汇率增值过多。同样，土耳其于去年，率先采取了一系列特殊途径来抑制热钱流入，以减小本国货币---“里拉”升值的压力。为了减缓信贷过度，当局迫使银行增加现金储备，同时为提高利率，对住房贷款与估值比率增加上限（这样做可能仍会吸引更多的流动资金。）土耳其中央银行也加入干预货币市场，以减缓里拉的增值。
Now adifferent set of problems looms. Fearful of inflation, which has risen to 7.7%,in part because of the weaker currency, the bank has recently reversed tack andsold some of its foreign-currency reserves to prop up the lira. Since itsreserves are quite modest, Turkey may have to keep interest rates fairly highto defend its currency and maintain external financing, which would increasethe chances of a hard landing. A cheaper currency should, in principle, boostexports and curb imports, narrow the current-account deficit and so reduce theamount of fresh borrowing needed from abroad. But the inflation that comes withhigher import prices will temper the competitive gain from a cheaper lira; andeuro-zone recession will hurt exports.
目前，又有新问题显现出来：部分由于货币疲软而导致通胀已经高达7.7%，由此产生的恐慌。银行已经采取反向策略，减少一部分外汇储备来支持里拉。正是由于其外汇储备量不多，土耳其不得不通过保持高利率来维护其货币价值，并维持对外融资，这又将增加经济硬着陆的可能性。一般而言，疲软的货币应该会带动出口，抑制进口，从而减少往来项目赤字和外来新增借款。但是高进口伴随着的通胀将通过疲软的里拉来减小优势性利润，同时欧元区萧条也会打击出口。
Europe’sbanks are not the only source of foreign capital for Turkey, Poland and therest. Purchases of bonds and stocks by foreign investors (“portfolio inflows”)are important, too, and have held up surprisingly well, says Ms Edgeworth.Rich-world investors have been keen on exposure to emerging markets because oflow yields at home. But weakening currencies would mean losses on suchinvestments, which could slow—or reverse—portfolio flows.That in turn would further depress currencies, reinforcing a vicious cycle.
Edgeworth先生认为，欧洲银行并不是土耳其、波兰和其他国家唯一的外资来源。外国投资者们购买债券和股票（“组合
资金流入”）也是非常重要的，并且近些年来一直保持意想不到的良好状态。第一世界国家的投资者们因为国内的利率低而一直热衷于投资新兴市场。
然而疲软的货币意味着这些投资会发生亏损，从而减慢或者改变组合资金的流动方向。这反过来将进一步压低货币，造成恶性循环。
A fewpolicymakers are alive to the risks. Mr Carney suggested European banks shouldbe required “to meet at least part of their requirements by raising privatecapital” rather than being able to do so entirely by deleveraging. The IMF isalso sounding warnings. Erik Berglof of the European Bank for Reconstructionand Development has called for a second “Vienna Initiative”, a successful 2009pact to keep bank loans flowing to eastern Europe. But the pressure on theeuro-zone is now far greater than it was back then, so the near-abroadis less of a priority.
有少数一些决策者注意到了风险。Carney先生建议，应要求欧洲银行“通过私募至少要达到部分要求”，而不是仅仅完全是通过“去杠杆化”来达到目的。IMF同样也在测探着这些警告。欧洲建设发展银行的Erik Berglof提出第二次“维亚纳倡议”，第一次倡议于2009年成功地促使银行贷款流向东欧。但是欧元区的压力仍然比当时要大很多，因此邻国的危机也就没那么重要了。
from the print edition |Finance and economics | 
发表于 2011-11-13 12:44
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